2007 Masters in Numbers

The Masters is over. Zach Johnson is the winner, Tiger Woods failed to mount a Sunday charge (as did most of the rest of the field), and Augusta put up more than a fair fight. So be it.

While we’re between Numbers Game columnist, I thought I’d fill in with some quickie stats from this year’s playing of the U.S. Open, errr, Masters Invitational.

Birdies and Eagles, Oh My!

Lee Westwood and Geoff Ogilvy, T30 and T24 respectively, led with 16 birdies for the week. The field averaged 7.74 birdies for the entire tournament. Among those who made the cut, the average improves to 10.17, or just more than 2½ birdies per 18 holes. The PGA Tour leaders currently average more than 4.0 birdies per round.

Tiger Woods has 5 eagles to his credit this year. Every 57.6 holes, he scores an eagle. Masters contestants racked up only 18 this year despite having some of the most reachable par fives in major championship golf. If we lop off over 30 contestants who didn’t make the cut, that’s 18 birdies in 4320 holes of golf, or 240 holes per eagle. 240 holes per eagle puts you in 90th place on the PGA Tour with Kevin Sutherland. Who? Exactly.

The Course

These numbers speak for themselves:

Rnd     Eagles     Birdies    Pars    Bogeys    Doubles     Others
 1        2          205      991      464        54          12
 2        4          233      980      442        61           8
------- CUT ----------- CUT ----------- CUT ----------- CUT -------
 3        2          107      600      320        42           9
 4       10          175      615      236        35           9

Look at how much traditional pin placements and a little water can affect the numbers between rounds three and four. Eagles were up 500% and Birdies were up 70%.

The per-hole stats are depressing, but you can find them here (at least until the 2008 Masters rolls around).

The 40-30-20-10 Rule

How well did the 40-30-20-10 rule hold up? Given that it’s meant to be applied to a set of stats and not just one tournament, I’d say it held up fairly well. Winner Zach Johnson ranked fifth in GIR, 11th in Putting, and second in driving accuracy. Tiger Woods was 46th of 60 in driving accuracy and 31st in putting (!!!).

The predicted winner? Stuart Appleby, who was third in GIR, 19th in putting, 14th in DD, and 55th in DA. Instead, he finished T7, undone by a single triple-bogey on the 17th hole on Saturday. Zach Johnson clocks in at 2.7th place. Justin Rose and Jerry Kelly, both of whom tied for fifth, were predicted to finish at 18.1th and 20.5th. Justin can thank his 42nd place ranking in GIR and Jerry Kelly his 18th place in GIR and 43rd place in putting. Yow.

Player	GIR	Putts	DD	DA	Rule	Finish
Z. Johnson	4	10	57	2	16.2	1
R. Sabbatini	4	20	15	31	13.7	2
R. Goosen	2	20	12	49	14.1	2
T. Woods	8	28	17	46	19.6	2
J. Rose	35	2	55	31	28.7	5
J. Kelly	14	40	46	49	31.7	5
S. Appleby	2	16	13	53	13.5	7
P. Harrington	43	1	15	23	22.8	7
D. Toms	29	4	46	13	23.3	9
L. Donald	4	28	29	42	20	10
V. Taylor	4	55	22	7	23.2	10
P. Casey	20	34	19	31	25.1	10
V. Singh	10	34	40	7	22.9	13
T. Clark	20	20	50	1	24.1	13
J. Furyk	1	57	44	4	26.7	13
I. Poulter	25	28	49	5	28.7	13
S. Cink	29	7	6	28	17.7	17
H. Stenson	14	28	31	13	21.5	17
T. Pernice jr.	35	20	28	41	29.7	17
M. Calcavecchia	10	34	2	5	15.1	20
J. Rollins	20	16	17	13	17.5	20
L. Glover	20	20	35	42	25.2	20
M. Weir	35	10	25	49	26.9	20
G. Ogilvy	25	14	3	31	17.9	24
S. Ames	35	5	37	19	24.8	24
P. Mickelson	35	34	1	56	30	24
D. Love III	43	12	11	31	26.1	27
A. Scott	10	47	23	49	27.6	27
K. Choi	14	52	43	23	32.1	27
Y. Yang	14	47	4	42	24.7	30
S. Verplank	29	20	37	2	25.2	30
R. Karlsson	19	28	21	53	25.5	30
L. Westwood	51	2	26	23	28.5	30
F. Couples	48	7	10	60	29.3	30
D. Wilson	10	47	54	23	31.2	30
C. Howell III	14	55	24	56	32.5	30
B. Wetterich	8	60	5	53	27.5	37
A. Cabrera	43	40	13	10	32.8	37
J. Singh	35	14	53	42	33	37
R. Pampling	51	16	36	19	34.3	37
T. Herron	55	12	27	38	34.8	37
J. Henry	29	52	33	28	36.6	37
S. Lyle	25	44	44	19	33.9	43
M. Jimenez	25	28	58	10	31	44
D. Howell	35	16	52	38	33	44
B. Dredge	35	40	8	56	33.2	44
S. Katayama	51	20	56	7	38.3	44
J. Olazabal	58	7	51	59	41.4	44
J. Sluman	29	47	48	13	36.6	49
C. Stadler	43	44	59	19	44.1	49
B. Quigley	43	52	30	13	40.1	51
A. Baddeley	48	34	9	23	33.5	52
C. Pettersson	20	58	20	46	34	52
R. Beem	51	34	31	31	39.9	54
N. Fasth	29	47	7	46	31.7	55
B. Crenshaw	59	20	60	10	42.6	55
T. Immelman	55	44	34	38	45.8	55
A. Oberholser	55	40	37	31	44.5	58
B. Mayfair	48	58	41	13	46.1	59
F. Zoeller	60	5	42	28	36.7	60

The Winner

Zach Johnson took 289 strokes (+1) over 72 holes. He was T2 in Driving Accuracy (80.4%) and T4 in Greens in Regulation (61.1%). He was -11 on the par fives without reaching any in two.

Titleist happily points out that in addition to Zach Johnson’s full line of Titleist clubs, Titleist was the #1 ball in play at The Masters as well as the #1 iron in play with 16 (of 96 competitors). The Forged 755 accounted for the most Titleist iron sets, racking up a total of six of the 16. Titleist’s Bob Vokey wedges also took top count in the wedge category with 64 (32%) play, nearly double the 34 of the nearest competitor.

Staff Predictions

Our annual staff predictions are always a hoot. They give us a chance to look like intelligent people or, as is more frequently the case, look as incapable of predicting a winner as crazy Aunt Elma on the day she runs out of her meds.

But never before have we scored the results! Until now.

Being the unbiased guy that I am, I’ve taken it upon myself to score our questions. Using par as a scale, let’s have a look at how we did.

Thoughts on the Course
I’m going to give myself a par here. I talked about the ruination of the course, and the weather and whatnot only managed to exaggerate it. Donald MacKenzie, Dave Koster, and Jack Waddell also tap in for par here.

Alan Olson lips in a birdie putt, calling the course a “tricked up cousin of the U.S. Open.”

Jeff Smith sneaks in with a par, though he had to hole a 10-footer to do so. Be more specific next year, Jeff! Cody Thrasher bogeys by saying the short hitters will be taken out. Many remained long into the tournament, and one of ’em won!

Winner and Score
I picked Tiger, so I bogey right alongside Donald, Jeff, Dave, and Jack. I three-jack for my bogey, though, since I had Zach Johnson on my fantasy team this week.

Alan went with Adam Scott and double bogeys, though I should give him a triple for choosing an Australian. Cody picked a guy (Ernie Els) who didn’t make the cut, earning a triple bogey like the one suffered by Phil Mickelson on the first hole Sunday.

Dark-Horse Winner
I chose Arron Oberholser, who held the lead a few times on Thursday and Friday before falling back. I bogey – he still made the cut.

Jeff, Dave, and Jack, well, I suppose we’ll give them pars for choosing Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose, and Vijay Singh. Each held the leader in the tournament later than Arron.

Cody and Alan double bogey for choosing Steve Stricker. Donald triples for picking Ernie Els – he didn’t make the cut and someone of Ernie’s caliber hardly qualifies as a dark horse!

Biggest Disappointment
I said that Phil Mickelson would “make the cut, but won’t be in serious contention Saturday or Sunday.” I birdie, alongside Jack who also predicted a bad week for Phil.

Jeff and Cody both take Adam Scott to fail and both par. Dave Koster chooses Furyk and, despite Furyk’s appearance on page two of the leaderboard Sunday, also pars.

Donald lists the snow in the northern part of the country. Given the cold in Augusta, this wasn’t as bad as it could have been. The pros were cold too, at least. Still, Donald earns a sympathy par.

Alan says Retief won’t make the cut, and since Retief held the lead on Sunday, Alan’s got to double bogey.

Largest Surprise
I said that an amateur golfer will appear on he leaderboard midway through Sunday. None made the cut, but I only bogey, because Jerry Kelly, Zach Johnson, and Justin Rose are about as close to professional amateurs as you can get <wink>.

Donald earns a sentimental par for noting Arnold Palmer’s ceremonial role.

Dave bogeys in predicting Brett Wetterich, the 36-hole leader, would finish in the top 10. He finished T37 after a horrible weekend collapse that included a Saturday 83. Jeff bogeys for thinking Aaron Baddeley will contend. Cody bogeys in thinking the leaderboard will lack star power come Sunday, saying instead that “names like Stricker, Baddeley, Olazabal” would appear. Jack bogeys in predicting a lack of success for the South Africans – Retief could have won.

Alan doubles in thinking Richie Ramsay would finish in the top ten.

Final Leaderboard

Player          H1   H2   H3   H4   H5    Tot
------          --   --   --   --   --    ---
Barzeski         E   +1   +1   -1   +1     +2
MacKenzie        E   +1   +3    E    E     +4
Smith            E   +1    E    E   +1     +2
Koster           E   +1    E    E   +1     +2
Olson           -1   +2   +2   +2   +2     +7
Waddell          E   +1    E   -1   +1     +1
Thrasher        +1   +3   +2    E   +1     +7

So there you have it. Jack Waddell, your 2007 Masters Predictions winner.