2008 U.S. Open Predictions

The staff weighs in on the season’s second major championship.

Thrash TalkThe 2008 U.S. Open starts today, and the world’s best will attempt to tame Torrey Pines en route to major championship glory. The two best golfers in the world, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, both have a great history at this golf course. They have received the most headlines going into the event, and they will be paired together the first two rounds at least.

Tiger and Lefty will be the favorites, but who else has a good shot at winning the second major of the year? Also, who might be a dark-horse pick, and who might disappoint? Sand Trap staff members predict these things and more in this week’s article. If you have anything to add, please comment below or discuss it in the forum.


Thoughts on the Course

Erik J. Barzeski
I think it’s boring. It’s a bunch of straight holes next to the ocean without very many ocean views. I’m glad that they’ve constructed stands so as not to affect the breezes. I’m glad the rough is a tad thinner and that the fairways haven’t been significantly narrowed. But the course itself? Yawn.

Donald MacKenzie
I’ve played Torrey Pines several times, and I think it will be a good test for the U.S. Open. It won’t be a pushover – the rough will be juicy and very thick, and the greens are small and have lots of subtle movement. The players will find a very different course in comparison to the birdie factory they’re used to seeing early in the year at the Buick Invitational. The players from the south and east hate putting on Torrey’s unpredictable greens, giving an advantage to West Coast guys like Tiger and Phil. Torrey Pines isn’t anywhere near Pebble Beach in the pantheon of great ocean courses, but it’ll be an interesting change of pace for the U.S. Open.

Cody Thrasher
The USGA have made things a little less difficult by keeping the fairways wider and the primary rough four or five inches. The greens will be fast as lightning, however, and scoring conditions at Torrey Pines will still be very difficult. Anything under par will be a good score. It’s not the most exciting U.S. Open golf course by any means, but it’s a worthy candidate.

Dave Koster
We’ll obviously see a much different Torrey Pines than we saw for the Buick Invitational. At 7600+ yards, it’s long for a par 72 and even more brutal at 71. Even at that length, the conditions will bring the field back together.

Alan Olson
This is not your father’s Torrey Pines, nor is it the same from the Buick Invitational earlier this year. Stretched to 7,643 yards and playing to a par 71, this will be a stiff test for all participants and nasty for the shorter hitters in the field. The USGA must be getting soft on us, though, because the rough won’t be as bad as prior years nor the course as stretched out as they could have made it. The par-three holes will be highly entertaining because they can vary the lengths of each by 17 to 53 yards.

George Promenschenkel
According to Phil Mickelson, it’s going to be the toughest U.S. Open course in recent years. According to others, the rough will not be as penal, and the fairways will be a little wider. In short, it will be a “kinder and gentler” U.S. Open under the setup policy of Mike Davis. I’m going to use my expertise as one born in San Diego (though I haven’t been there since I was four) and suggest that the course will play a little easier than Oakmont and Winged Foot did, unless the wind comes up. With a course that long, wind could wreak havoc on the players. Look at what it did to the players at the Memorial over the weekend.

The USGA’s decision to put the top 12 players in the world into threesomes (#1-3, 4-6, etc.) will be popular for TV, but it probably puts those players at a disadvantage. Think how large the gallery will be for Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, and Adam Scott. There’s going to be a lot of movement and noise. It won’t be a big disadvantage for Tiger or Phil because they always have the largest galleries. Adam Scott plays before large galleries, but I’m not sure he’s ever seen one the size that he’ll see on Thursday and Friday.

Danny Ottmann
Longer is better? This course seems to take the shorter hitters out of the equation. Gone are the days of the player who can grind his way around and manufacture the shots when it counts. The winner will have to have power and a lot of it.


Winner and Score

Erik J. Barzeski
Tiger Woods, 282 (-2). It’s tough to bet against Tiger Woods, particularly at Torrey. With the extra putting practice he’s gotten due to his injury, and the “ease” with which he’ll have to hit shots so as not to stress his knee, I think we’ll see a Hoylake-like performance from Woods. Combined with the solid putter, it spells “W.”

Donald MacKenzie
Hunter Mahan, 279 (-5). As much as Tiger owns this course, and even though Phil is a local, I just don’t see either of them getting it done this week. Even Tiger needs a little more time to play himself into game shape after his knee surgery, and Phil is starting to look a bit like Colin Montgomerie in the way he can look horrible in events that suit his game. While Mahan was born in SoCal, he grew up in Texas – though he played a year at USC before transferring to Oklahoma State. He has all the tools, and I’m going with my gut feeling on the youngster.

Cody Thrasher
Geoff OgilvyGeoff Ogilvy, -4 (280). This was a very tough decision for me, and I went back and forth between a few different golfers. In the end, Ogilvy is a past U.S. Open winner, he can handle Tiger pressure as well as anyone, and he has finished in the top 10 his last two events. That gives him as good a shot as anyone else.

Dave Koster
Adam Scott, +2 (286). I’m not hot on anyone and don’t know if Tiger will be able to come back and win in his first tourney after surgery. It is the U.S. Open, right?

Alan Olson
Geoff Ogivly, -6 (278). He has the length to take on Torrey Pines and has won the U.S. Open before.

George Promenschenkel
Tiger Woods, -1 (283). People have been jumping off the Tiger bandwagon left and right, but have you ever played when you weren’t feeling your best? It sometimes does good things to your game. You stay in your shoes when you swing. You try not to do too much. I once shot an 82 (back when I was strictly a bogey golfer) despite the fact that I was running a fever the whole time (I was on vacation and refused to miss out on a round of golf). Tiger has blown away fields while dealing with severe food poisoning before. I wouldn’t count him out just yet. If he starts the tournament on Thursday, he can win on Sunday.

Danny Ottmann
Tiger Woods, Even Par (284).


Other Top Contenders

Erik J. Barzeski
The U.S. Open always has several “no-name” top contenders, and this year will be no different. I don’t think Phil will have a great week, though the crowd support he gets will buoy him into a top-20 finish. I don’t think Ernie Els or Vijay Singh have their games where they need them to be. Geoff Ogilvy and Justin Rose have proven inconsistent. Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk are battling demons. Of the top 10, Sergio Garcia stands the best chance. He’s driving the ball well, won a big tournament recently, and has solidified his putting somewhat.

Donald MacKenzie
I do expect Tiger and Phil to be right there, but they won’t close the deal. If Tiger can shake the rust quickly, he might be able to stay in the mix and outlast the field. Phil’s success will hinge on whether he can decide when to throttle back and when to play aggressive – same as every other week.

Cody Thrasher
Tiger Woods and Stephen Ames. Woods will be playing competitively for the first time since The Masters, and that’s why he isn’t my prediction to win. However, Tiger is still the best in the world, and he will put himself in contention at the very least. Ames is ranked high enough not to be considered a dark horse, and he plays well at ball-striking venues. He has played very well the past month or so, and if he can sink a few clutch putts, he could definitely walk away the winner.

Dave Koster
Other than Woods, I’m expecting a strong showing from Stewart Cink, who can hit it a ways and has a calm about him. Justin Rose has done well in some recent majors but has faded in the final rounds. Don’t count out Justin Leonard either. He played great last week (and all year for that matter) and has the short game to contend in a U.S. Open. Mickelson will be near the top in the end as well.

Alan Olson
Kenny Perry is elsewhere this week, so Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia, and Trevor Immelman top my list of other contenders.

George Promenschenkel
Mickelson will probably be the favorite to win, but after the way he struggled at Memorial, I think the U.S. Open rough will keep him a few shots off the lead. Sergio may well find himself high on the leaderboard on Sunday. His shotmaking is well suited to a U.S. Open, and if he can keep improving with the putter, he’ll eventually break through in a major. Winning The Players should help his confidence as well. K.J. Choi is also well suited to this kind of course.

Danny Ottmann
Adam Scott is long enough to win, and Jim Furyk hits the ball straight enough to win.


Dark-Horse Winner

Erik J. Barzeski
Whatever the opposite of shooting fish in a barrel is, that’s this question. The U.S. Open produces more fluke, weird winners than any other big tournament I can think of. Michael Campbell? Angel Cabrera? Tiger hasn’t won since 2002, and Phil’s never won it. So, having reached in and randomly drawn out one of the smallest fish I could find in the barrel, I’ve chosen Jeff Quinney. But c’mon, Jeff Quinney ain’t winnin’ the U.S. Open.

Donald MacKenzie
Jeff Quinney. OK, he hasn’t made a cut in four majors. But this is the dark-horse pick, right? Quinney is totally hit-or-miss, either a birdie machine or a missed cut. He understands the West Coast style of golf, and he won the U.S. Amateur in 2000. If he hits fairways, his solid iron play and short game could make him a factor on Sunday.

Cody Thrasher
Brandt Snedeker. He is ranked just inside the top 40 in the world, and he plays well on difficult courses. He showed he can contend in big tournaments at this year’s Masters, and he will once again put himself in the hunt this weekend.

Dave Koster
Davis Love III. It’s hard to think he’d be a dark horse, but after coming back sooner from ankle surgery, he’s started to get his game in shape. He qualified at the hardest place, Columbus, where all the other tour players were after the Memorial. He just has to limit the bad shots which have plagued some rounds this year.

Alan Olson
His play this year has been downright dreadful, but Retief Goosen has a couple of these under his belt and knows what it takes to win. The fact he falls into the “Dark-Horse” category and not the “Top Contender” group is unbelievable.

George Promenschenkel
I really want to pick Kevin Tway here. He’ll have his dad, Bob, on the bag. It would be a great Fathers Day story if he is in the mix on Sunday. However, the kid shot an 84 in the NCAA Championship, and this is his first U.S. Open. He’ll probably have a great two-day experience, regardless. Instead, I’m taking Stuart Appleby. He’s a proven winner that plays well in streaks. He hits the ball low and long which could be very useful if the wind comes up. If he’s on, he can stay with anyone.

Danny Ottmann
Justin Rose. He has hung around long enough. It’s time for him to show what he can do, or he will suffer the same fate as fellow European, Colin Montgomerie.


Biggest Disappointment

Erik J. Barzeski
Trevor ImmelmanTrevor Immelman will be in danger of missing the cut and will not be in serious contention. Torrey and the U.S. Open aren’t Augusta National, and the latest green jacket owner’s recent resurgence isn’t going to be enough to get him over the hump or into the final pairings on Sunday.

Donald MacKenzie
Anthony Kim. I think he’s going to be a great player, but he’s getting a lot of hype heading into this week. He struggled at the only major-esque event he’s played this year, The Players. Check back with AK around PGA Championship time, and I think he’ll be ready to make some noise.

Cody Thrasher
Phil Mickelson. He won’t miss the cut, but anything other than a win will be a disappointment for the hometown hero. Also, there are rumors he is nervous about his wrist holding up to the rough at Torrey Pines. Lefty might end up inside the top 20 or 30, but that’s not good enough for the second-best golfer in the world.

Dave Koster
Jim Furyk. The normal U.S. Open contender will struggle. He’s switched putters for the first time in a while, and that’s not a good thing going into the Open.

Alan Olson
Here’s three: Chris Berman’s announcing, Adam Scott’s putting, and Justin Rose teases us yet again with his talent but fails to pull through again on Sunday.

George Promenschenkel
Before hearing about the broken pinkie, I thought the biggest disappointment might be Adam Scott missing the cut after putting poorly before the mega-galleries that the 1-2-3 pairing is going to pull. That would likely result in noticeably fewer women being in attendance on the weekend. Now, however, that’s not much of a prediction. The biggest disappointment will be for fans of Southern Hemisphere players who have had their boys win the last four U.S. Opens. This year, the trophy is going to stay in the Northern Hemisphere, specifically in a house at Isleworth, I believe.

Danny Ottmann
Phil Mickelson will miss the cut. His driver is too sporadic for a difficult course like Torrey Pines, even though he knows it well.


Largest Surprise

Erik J. Barzeski
The USGA has already unveiled the largest surprise: the threesome of Tiger, Phil, and Adam Scott, numbers one, two, and three in the Official World Golf Ranking (along with the threesomes of 4-5-6, 7-8-9, and 10-11-12). They’ve gone with a prime-time finish, which I like, as well. So outside of those two things, the biggest surprise will be the winning score: under par.

Donald MacKenzie
San Diego as a host site – San Diegans are a notoriously casual sporting crowd. The Chargers and Padres rarely sell out games even when they’re good, and the Buick Invitational boasts only so-so crowds. Why? Look around! The weather is so good and there’s so much to do that most people would rather be playing a sport than watching one. But I bet this week will be different. I think the crowds will be huge, and the USGA will be very glad with the decision to bring the U.S. Open to Ron Burgundy’s hometown. Stay classy, San Diego!

Cody Thrasher
The largest surprise is the USGA trying to make the course a little easier instead of more difficult like usual. Also, it will be a surprise if Adam Scott makes the cut and plays all four rounds after breaking his finger a few weeks back.

Dave Koster
I think there will be a Hunter Mahan or Matt Kuchar in the final group. Don’t be surprised if there is a relative unknown that wins. I think this year will produce another Michael Campbell.

Alan Olson
The amount of golfers who finish under par for the tournament. The USGA won’t be happy and will vow to make everyone pay at the 2009 U.S. Open.

George Promenschenkel
Brandt Snedeker will put himself in contention again at a major. It wouldn’t be that much of a surprise except that he looked so bad at the Memorial. But when he gets it going, he’s very steady. That’s a very good quality to have on a U.S. Open course. I’m looking for Sneds to get back on that horse that bucked him Sunday at The Masters.

Danny Ottmann
An unknown qualifier gets hot and makes it a tournament playing with Tiger Woods in the final group on Sunday.

Photo Credits: © The Sand Trap .com.

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