Comments on: Strength of Field: Tiger vs. Phil, Part One http://thesandtrap.com/columns/the_numbers_game/strength_of_field_tiger_vs_phil_part_one Golf News, Reviews, and Commentary Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:16:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Strength of Field: Tiger vs. Phil, Part Two | The Sand Trap http://thesandtrap.com/columns/the_numbers_game/strength_of_field_tiger_vs_phil_part_one#comment-4012 Strength of Field: Tiger vs. Phil, Part Two | The Sand Trap Thu, 25 Jan 2007 16:30:39 +0000 http://thesandtrap.com/columns/the_numbers_game/does_phil_play_weaker_events_than_tiger/#comment-4012 [...] Last week's Numbers Game on Tiger and Phil was titled "Part One," so you knew more was coming. If you read the comments, you may have guessed what else was on its way. Erik suggested that averaging the entire field may show that Tiger plays the tougher fields, but that the numbers get a lot closer simply due to the fact that a PGA Tour field has 144 players, many of whom are ranked 300th or worse. Erik suggested that we look at the average rank of the top players in the field and the number of players ranked a certain rank or better. [...] [...] Last week's Numbers Game on Tiger and Phil was titled "Part One," so you knew more was coming. If you read the comments, you may have guessed what else was on its way. Erik suggested that averaging the entire field may show that Tiger plays the tougher fields, but that the numbers get a lot closer simply due to the fact that a PGA Tour field has 144 players, many of whom are ranked 300th or worse. Erik suggested that we look at the average rank of the top players in the field and the number of players ranked a certain rank or better. [...]

]]> By: Erik J. Barzeski http://thesandtrap.com/columns/the_numbers_game/strength_of_field_tiger_vs_phil_part_one#comment-3829 Erik J. Barzeski Thu, 18 Jan 2007 15:49:09 +0000 http://thesandtrap.com/columns/the_numbers_game/does_phil_play_weaker_events_than_tiger/#comment-3829 I see two problems with this comparison and would like to point one additional thing out. One, choosing to weighting the average of those outside the top 200 to a lowly 220 is bad math. Look at these players, culled from players currently ranked 350-400 in the world, and I'm sure you'll recognize that many of them played in several PGA Tour events in 2006 (their current OWGR is in parentheses): Bubba Dickerson (353), Phillip Price (354), Rocco Mediate (355), Mikko Ilonen (357), John Huston (365), Bob May (366), Ian Leggatt (369), Nick Price (371), Brent Geiberger (372), Alex Cejka (388), Chris Riley (390), David Duval (391), Andrew Coltart (394). Clearly 220 is a weak number that likely only serves to "scrunch up" (and lower) the average a little. Throw in the occasional 500th ranked player and the average increase quite a bit. Perhaps accurate numbers would have closed the gap between Phil and Tiger - but I doubt it. I think accurate OWGR rankings would have increased Tiger's lead. Second, I find that including the strength of all but the top 20 players or so a fruitless and meaningless consideration altogether. How often is Tiger worried about the guy ranked #388th in the world? Not often. True "stronger-field" events have a healthy number of top-tier players. "EIght of the world's top ten" or so on. I would be interested to see what the average of the top 20 ranked players in the world are for the events in which Tiger and Phil play. Third, a 13.5-point average, weighted across the entire field, is a significant leap. Imagine an event with players ranked 1-100 and another event with players ranked 11-110. The average difference is only 10 places, but which field is easier? The field with every top ten player or no top ten players? I view a 13.5-point average as quite significant. Incidentally, looking at the average of their three weakest field events is interesting as well. Tiger played in the Buick Invitational (158.22), the Buick Open (168.83), and the Deutsche Bank Championship (172.66). His average for those is 166.57 and <strong>he won all three</strong> (and two he plays in partly because he's sponsored by Buick). Phil played in the AT&T Pebble Beach Nat'l (178.33), the BellSouth Classic (167.99), and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (175.70) for an average of 174.01. I see two problems with this comparison and would like to point one additional thing out.

One, choosing to weighting the average of those outside the top 200 to a lowly 220 is bad math. Look at these players, culled from players currently ranked 350-400 in the world, and I'm sure you'll recognize that many of them played in several PGA Tour events in 2006 (their current OWGR is in parentheses): Bubba Dickerson (353), Phillip Price (354), Rocco Mediate (355), Mikko Ilonen (357), John Huston (365), Bob May (366), Ian Leggatt (369), Nick Price (371), Brent Geiberger (372), Alex Cejka (388), Chris Riley (390), David Duval (391), Andrew Coltart (394).

Clearly 220 is a weak number that likely only serves to "scrunch up" (and lower) the average a little. Throw in the occasional 500th ranked player and the average increase quite a bit. Perhaps accurate numbers would have closed the gap between Phil and Tiger - but I doubt it. I think accurate OWGR rankings would have increased Tiger's lead.

Second, I find that including the strength of all but the top 20 players or so a fruitless and meaningless consideration altogether. How often is Tiger worried about the guy ranked #388th in the world? Not often. True "stronger-field" events have a healthy number of top-tier players. "EIght of the world's top ten" or so on. I would be interested to see what the average of the top 20 ranked players in the world are for the events in which Tiger and Phil play.

Third, a 13.5-point average, weighted across the entire field, is a significant leap. Imagine an event with players ranked 1-100 and another event with players ranked 11-110. The average difference is only 10 places, but which field is easier? The field with every top ten player or no top ten players? I view a 13.5-point average as quite significant.

Incidentally, looking at the average of their three weakest field events is interesting as well. Tiger played in the Buick Invitational (158.22), the Buick Open (168.83), and the Deutsche Bank Championship (172.66). His average for those is 166.57 and he won all three (and two he plays in partly because he's sponsored by Buick). Phil played in the AT&T Pebble Beach Nat'l (178.33), the BellSouth Classic (167.99), and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (175.70) for an average of 174.01.

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