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At what point does this become a sound strategy? I was playing a short par-4 yesterday that the gps said was 334 to the center, 300 to the front with a front pin. The tee was up about 20 feet, the fairways were bone dry (no exaggeration, record drought), and there was a slight wind behind us. My friend and I both decided to go for it. He normally hits the ball better than I do, but he caught it thin and it rolled out to 270 or so. The wind died when I stepped up, so I figured I'd end up a little short, but I went for it anyway. I hit a good, not great shot. It ended up in line with the left edge of the green at about 295. Now, that was just for fun, as there is a creek on the left side of this fairway. My "real" ball was the one before, which was a smooth 4-iron to the 100 yard marker center fairway, followed by a comfortable gap wedge to about 10 feet. When I got up to the forward ball at 295, I had a very long chip with very little green to work with. The greens were so baked I knew there was no way I would be able to stop it. It seemed like my options were either hit a high-flop from a tight fairway, or land it short, and hope it gets through the fringe with a lucky bounce. I split the difference and ended up 10 feet or so past the pin. I looked at both balls and remembered how they were both played. Given a choice, I'd choose the 4-iron any day. It was completely stress free and comfortable. The driver definitely brought the creek into play and seemed like a loser on this hole, even with the favorable driving conditions, as it would no-doubt deplete the mental reserves and leave one slightly rattled regardless of the outcome. At what level of risk/reward is going for it a sound strategy?

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R11 9° (Lowered to 8.5°) UST Proforce VTS 7x tipped 1" | 906F2 15° and 18° | 585H 21° | Mizuno MP-67 +1 length TT DG X100 | Vokey 52° Oil Can, Cleveland CG10 2-dot 56° and 60° | TM Rossa Corza Ghost 35.5" | Srixon Z Star XV | Size 14 Footjoy Green Joys | Tour Striker Pro 5, 7, 56 | Swingwing

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At what level of risk/reward is going for it a sound strategy?

When there is no real risk.

If your normal swing will get you over the bunker or over the trees or up near the green, go for it. If it is going to be a one in 10 swing that will get you there with disaster the result of a bad swing, don't bother. It's amazing how many birdies you'll make by laying up and how many doubles you'll make by "just" missing.

In the race of life, always back self-interest. At least you know it's trying.

 

 

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I think the stats show that the closer to the green most players get the better their chances to get up and down are.

That, of course, assumes that there's a good chance you'll drive the ball straight enough to not find trouble (regardless of whether that trouble is 50 yards to the right and you're really wild, or right beside the green and you're pretty accurate).

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
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Those are interesting points. I guess my particular case gave me no ostensible advantage being further down, but maybe it would have been better in the long run. I don't know. I guess what made it seem like a particularly bad decision yesterday was that I had those two iron shots (4-iron 200 yards, gap wedge 100) dialed in and was confident I could get it to 10 feet in two. The creek really wasn't into play until about 150 yards from the green, which made it difficult, though not impossible to get there with a hooked 4-iron.

I don't ever recall seeing a stat on TV where the par-5 score when people go for it in 2 was more than that when people laid up. So I can see how it's the same with short par-4s requiring a drive of 300 yards. Having a great short game seems like it would give you a lot more freedom to go for it so that you have something to fall back on.

[ Equipment ]
R11 9° (Lowered to 8.5°) UST Proforce VTS 7x tipped 1" | 906F2 15° and 18° | 585H 21° | Mizuno MP-67 +1 length TT DG X100 | Vokey 52° Oil Can, Cleveland CG10 2-dot 56° and 60° | TM Rossa Corza Ghost 35.5" | Srixon Z Star XV | Size 14 Footjoy Green Joys | Tour Striker Pro 5, 7, 56 | Swingwing

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I don't ever recall seeing a stat on TV where the par-5 score when people go for it in 2 was more than that when people laid up.

But you'll be aware that when Zach Johnson won the Masters he birdied 11 of 16 par 5s without going for a single one in two.

Your initial post was about risk/reward. If there is minimal risk, go for it, whatever it is. This being the case, it is not really risk/ reward, merely a short par 3 or an easy par 5.

In the race of life, always back self-interest. At least you know it's trying.

 

 

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But you'll be aware that when Zach Johnson won the Masters he birdied 11 of 16 par 5s without going for a single one in two.

I do recall that. It was an amazing performance...and probably not the average.

[ Equipment ]
R11 9° (Lowered to 8.5°) UST Proforce VTS 7x tipped 1" | 906F2 15° and 18° | 585H 21° | Mizuno MP-67 +1 length TT DG X100 | Vokey 52° Oil Can, Cleveland CG10 2-dot 56° and 60° | TM Rossa Corza Ghost 35.5" | Srixon Z Star XV | Size 14 Footjoy Green Joys | Tour Striker Pro 5, 7, 56 | Swingwing

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Bottomline: Play to the strength of YOUR Game.
Most of the time the reward IS NOT worth the penalty if you miss!
On my home course there are 2 par 4's under 300 yards. The first is trouble free and I do not mind being 15 yards right or left with an easy chip up and down for a birdie. The second reachable par 4 has STEEP drop off right and left. Huge penalty if your miss right or left even 10 yards. But if I can hit 200-230 yards (3 wood) I get a nice controllable pitch in. Any further back and you run the risk of trickling off green right or left... and down the slope. Many long hitters walk away with bogeys and double bogeys as their reward. Not surprising, the older gents love the hole. It allows them to use "touch" vs. power.

Driver :T Edge CB-1 or Cally Mini Driver 14* or GBB 11*
Tour Edge CB2 15* 3 wood (Best Club Ever!)

Callaway XR 5Wood (New BCE!)

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At what point does this become a sound strategy

For shorter hitters it is almost never (never say never) a sound strategy. If it would take your absolute Sunday best, 1 out of 100, then the reward is not worth the risk. I do agree w/ Erik that being close is most golfers best chance to take advantage of that shorter par 4. But contrary to a lot of the mid to hi HCP's (on this forum) I might average 230 so being close is relative. Cheers

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For shorter hitters it is almost never (never say never) a sound strategy. If it would take your absolute Sunday best, 1 out of 100, then the reward is not worth the risk. I do agree w/ Erik that being close is most golfers best chance to take advantage of that shorter par 4. But contrary to a lot of the mid to hi HCP's (on this forum) I might average 230 so being close is relative. Cheers

I was wondering that as well. I'm not entirely sure I could be classified as a long hitter when it comes to driving par 4s. My normal drives are around 275, but I can ramp it to 290 or so. I think guys who can pull out 3-wood on those 300 yard holes are a different class of golfer than me. It sort of takes me out of my comfort zone to try to get there in one. I used to like the constant thrill when I was shooting in the 90s, but now I've grown to enjoy the slow grind of well-placed and safe shots. I think I was probably justified that the best strategy for me was 4-iron, wedge on the hole in this thread.

[ Equipment ]
R11 9° (Lowered to 8.5°) UST Proforce VTS 7x tipped 1" | 906F2 15° and 18° | 585H 21° | Mizuno MP-67 +1 length TT DG X100 | Vokey 52° Oil Can, Cleveland CG10 2-dot 56° and 60° | TM Rossa Corza Ghost 35.5" | Srixon Z Star XV | Size 14 Footjoy Green Joys | Tour Striker Pro 5, 7, 56 | Swingwing

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Bottomline: Play to the strength of YOUR Game.

Good post. If you play to your strengths you always score best. If your favorite club to hit is a pitching wedge and you hit it from 120 out then get yourself to that area and put your favorite club and best chance at success in you hand.
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In my instance, I play a 9 hole,par 31 exec course. Very nice,well maintained,surrounded by an apartment complex.There`s OB on 7 holes,water on 7 holes.3 par 4`s are drivable- one a 270 carry to clear the water,plus you have to get past a 10 yard slope in front,one a 275 drive into a 10 yard gap,with water left,and OB right.The 3rd,a 290 yard drive,with water left and behind the green, plus OB right. I used to pull the driver, but the risk/reward just isn`t worth it. I just hit in the fairway to the 100 yard marker, and shoot -4 to + 1 almost every round{9}.I`d much rather hit a 100 yard shot than a 20-40 yard shot,since they`re usually over water.Do what`s best for you,but play smart.I do.
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...My friend and I both decided to go for it. ... Now, that was just for fun, as there is a creek on the left side of this fairway. My "real" ball was the one before, which was a smooth 4-iron to the 100 yard marker center fairway...

What in the heck is a 'real' ball? If you go for it, you go for it. You accept the consequences / results and play the ball where it ends up. Playing a 'smooth 4-iron' to safety and then hitting a 'freebie' is NOT going for it. If your drive would have landed on the green, would that have been your 'real' ball?

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Hybrid: :adams: 20* Hybrid      Irons: :ping: i5 4-GW - silver dot, +1/2"
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Some days my driver is on, long, and straight. Pretty rare, actually, but I know it when those days are there...and ON those days, I will try and reach a short par 4. I've hit probably 1/2 dozen and haven't made an eagle putt yet :(

Driver: Nike Ignite 10.5 w/ Fujikura Motore F1
2H: King Cobra
4H: Nickent 4DX
5H: Adams A3
6I 7I 8I 9I PW: Mizuno mp-57Wedges: Mizuno MP T-10 50, 54, 58 Ball: random

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What in the heck is a 'real' ball? If you go for it, you go for it. You accept the consequences / results and play the ball where it ends up. Playing a 'smooth 4-iron' to safety and then hitting a 'freebie' is NOT going for it. If your drive would have landed on the green, would that have been your 'real' ball?

What I mean is, I got up to the tee box and commented that the conditions made the hole driveable. I then hit 4-iron to the center. My friend decided to "go for it" with driver. I then pulled out another ball and attempted to do the same out of curiosity. Regardless of what the outcome was, I was counting the 4-iron towards my score, which was not in a tournament or applied to my handicap. I also moved my ball very slightly accidentally when I soled my putter on a putt earlier in the round. I did not count this towards my score either, just FYI

Not sure why this is causing confusion in a friendly, uncompetitive practice round.

[ Equipment ]
R11 9° (Lowered to 8.5°) UST Proforce VTS 7x tipped 1" | 906F2 15° and 18° | 585H 21° | Mizuno MP-67 +1 length TT DG X100 | Vokey 52° Oil Can, Cleveland CG10 2-dot 56° and 60° | TM Rossa Corza Ghost 35.5" | Srixon Z Star XV | Size 14 Footjoy Green Joys | Tour Striker Pro 5, 7, 56 | Swingwing

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i guess the main thing is what are your strengths? if you are better at your full wedge/iron shots than your short game then you should always lay-up but if its the other way then i believe you should go for it!

Cobra S2 Driver
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Nike Victory Red 56 and 60 WedgesScotty Cameron Newport 1.5 Putter

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im not the layup kinda guy... for some reason laying up for me has always killed me...
ive layed up into perfects spots right in the middle of fw's with just an easy pitch to the green and 95% of the time screw it up...
due to all those bad experiences laying up... ill usually go for it regardless of the risk/reward...
oh yeah... im no longballer so most of the times its not an issue... ive only driven 2 greens in my life... 1 wind assisted the other pretty much rolled forever on the fw
RUSS's avg drive - 230yrds and climbing
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I'm starting to think that even yours truly, a short hitter, should go for it sometimes.

There's a course I play semi-regularly (one of the 3 most frequent courses for me). Hole 11 is just under 300 yards, par-4. Last 3 times I've played, I "played it safe" - 3- or 5-wood off the tee, with the idea of hitting 7- or 9-iron in, two putts, easy par. Double bogey each time. I've made par many times hitting driver, half-wedge. Maybe one of these days, a birdie.

Double bogey when it's under 300 yards and the pin was in the middle of the green is tough to stomach, especially today, when it was my only net bogey of the day.

-- Michael | My swing! 

"You think you're Jim Furyk. That's why your phone is never charged." - message from my mother

Driver:  Titleist 915D2.  4-wood:  Titleist 917F2.  Titleist TS2 19 degree hybrid.  Another hybrid in here too.  Irons 5-U, Ping G400.  Wedges negotiable (currently 54 degree Cleveland, 58 degree Titleist) Edel putter. 

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Note: This thread is 5363 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

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