It had been a while since I had been reminded of this. Yesterday, I was in a slow foursome behind an even-slower foursome. My guys took forever, but we still were waiting on the group in front of us. Five-flipping hour round. Shot a 45 on the front and then 52 on the back after the driver went sideways. Just too much time in the hot sun.
Yes I believe we are in agreement. What I like the most is this part you wrote: "I'm going to try and play the shot with the highest potential chance of success". I use to play a lot of poker and accordingly had to get very comfortable with the related probability math. As such I see the highest potential chance of success from that angle. Sometimes the outcome from a probability perspective is better when one takes a risk. And, I believe we are in agreement on all of this.
Reading between the lines in LSW, I believe @iacas looks at things from a probability perspective (even though he didn't risk boring many readers with the details of the related math).