November 22, 1963

[teamroper60]

I have studied the Kennedy assassination for years.    I am convinced Oswald fired shots at Kennedy and, may have actually hit him with at least one of those shots.   What I am not convinced of is that he fired the fatal head shot or that he acted alone.

I saw a documentary several years ago where a Marine sharp shooter with far better credentials than Oswald had, try to recreate the shots Oswald was purported to have taken, in the time he was purported to have taken them in, with a similar gun.    This guy got the shots off and actually hit the target with the first shot.   He did not hit it with the subsequent two.   Now, absent extraordinary luck,  if a guy whose marksmanship exceeded Oswald's couldn't hit the target more than once, I have a hard time believing Oswald could have done it.   When Kennedy was hit by the first shot, his body went forward, consistent with being shot from behind.   When he took the head shot, his head and body went violently back and left and parts of his brains were blown out, further to the back and left (Jackie was climbing onto the trunk trying to retrieve a chunk of his brain).   A motorcycle officer just off the driver's side rear corner of the limo was splattered by brain matter as well.   Now, I have heard and read the "explanations" outlining the theories about how Kennedy's body went exactly opposite of how it would be expected to react, but having been a hunter for years, I have never seen an animal's body react that way, even when shot in the head.   Then there is the physics of how the brain matter could have traveled in the wrong direction (if you believe the "explanations").  Furthermore, that brain splattered motorcycle cop dumped his bike and ran in the direction where he believed he heard the shot come from, which was the grassy knoll area.  In addition, a large number of witnesses to the events stated they believed the shots came from the grassy knoll.   This leads me to believe that there was more than one shooter and the fatal head shot came from in front and to the right of the limo..

I understand the skepticism of the ability to keep such a conspiracy secret and agree that the average person would not be able to do so.   I disagree.  Until recently, it was exceedingly rare for a "made" member of the Mafia to talk and the Mafia is one of the proposed "suspects"   Given Ruby's connections to organized crime and Bobby Kennedy's vigorous prosecution of the mob, I think Mafia involvement is plausible.  Further, another of the theories is that Castro had him killed.   If that were to be true, then I would think it to be unlikely that an agent of a communist country is going to come forward to talk about it, even today.   We know Castro was not happy over the Cuban missile crisis and we also know the Mafia lost a lot of property in Cuba when Castro took over.   I would not be surprised if the Mafia "facilitated" the assassination in exchange for compensation to recoup what they lost..

[Mr. Desmond]

All of the above is plausible, but neglects the psychological profile of Oswald.

Guys like Oswald are obsessive and brilliant in limited respects, yet mentally ill.

[iacas]

All of the above is plausible, but neglects the psychological profile of Oswald.

Guys like Oswald are obsessive and brilliant in limited respects, yet mentally ill.

So a guy like Oswald can change physics?

(In other words, you only responded to a portion of what @teamroper60 said.)

[Mr. Desmond]

I know nothing of the physics, so I can't comment on it

[Golfingdad]

I tried to record a segment on a show on history channel where they tried to recreate the shooting. They set up 3 targets, at the points where JFK would have been at each shot, and put the shooter up in some scaffolding. (I am incompetent so instead of taping it, I actually only took two photos :P). The guy got off all three shots in less time than was required (5.3 seconds I believe, and he had 5.6) ... And he pegged all three targets. No question, an extraordinary amount of luck was needed, but that experiment certainly showed it was possible to me. As to the "back and to the left" part, I don't know anything. I thought there had been docus explaining how that would work but I don't remember specifics.

[Mr. Desmond]

So a guy like Oswald can change physics? (In other words, you only responded to a portion of what @teamroper60 said.)

[quote name="Mr. Desmond" url="/t/71185/november-22-1963#post_922715"]I know nothing of the physics, so I can't comment on it[/quote] you caught me in the middle of my old man workout, but I can ask questions even if I don't know anything about the subject matter

[jamo]

I saw a documentary several years ago where a Marine sharp shooter with far better credentials than Oswald had, try to recreate the shots Oswald was purported to have taken, in the time he was purported to have taken them in, with a similar gun.    This guy got the shots off and actually hit the target with the first shot.   He did not hit it with the subsequent two. Now, absent extraordinary luck ,  if a guy whose marksmanship exceeded Oswald's couldn't hit the target more than once, I have a hard time believing Oswald could have done it.

I think that's key though. He didn't need to be perfect, just perfectly lucky. It's like when you mishit a putt, but it goes in anyway because you also misread it. (FWIW, I don't know enough about the whole thing to have much confidence in my opinion, so this isn't me taking a side or anything. Just thinking out loud.)

[iacas]

[newtogolf]

I think that's key though. He didn't need to be perfect, just perfectly lucky.

It's like when you mishit a putt, but it goes in anyway because you also misread it.

I'd agree but there were far too many powerful people that wanted to see Kennedy dead to just blindly accept that Oswald happened to be perfectly lucky on that day.  The odds of him making those shots given all the variables involved have to be worse than getting hit by lightning while simultaneously being attacked by a shark.

[phan52]

I tried to record a segment on a show on history channel where they tried to recreate the shooting. They set up 3 targets, at the points where JFK would have been at each shot, and put the shooter up in some scaffolding. (I am incompetent so instead of taping it, I actually only took two photos :P). The guy got off all three shots in less time than was required (5.3 seconds I believe, and he had 5.6) ... And he pegged all three targets.

No question, an extraordinary amount of luck was needed, but that experiment certainly showed it was possible to me.

As to the "back and to the left" part, I don't know anything. I thought there had been docus explaining how that would work but I don't remember specifics.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/texas/dallas/dealeyplaza/

Attached is the view that Oswald had of Dealy Plaza from the 6th floor of the book depository. It doesn't look like it was all that hard of a shot, considering that the cars were moving very slowly away from him at that point in a straight line.

[Golfingdad]

You sure about that 5 minutes!?!?!?

[teamroper60]

Attached is the view that Oswald had of Dealy Plaza from the 6th floor of the book depository. It doesn't look like it was all that hard of a shot, considering that the cars were moving very slowly away from him at that point in a straight line.

If it were in fact just a straight away shot perhaps but from that angle the target is actually rising in your field of view as it moves away and simultaneously, the bullet's trajectory will be falling, so it wouldn't be as easy as it may look..  A far easier shot would be one taken from a shorter distance and closer to level with the target (aka the grassy knoll).

It's like when you mishit a putt, but it goes in anyway because you also misread it.

According to the Warren Commission, In April of 1963, Oswald attempted to assassinate a retired General as he sat in his home, with that same rifle and missed from roughly 100 feet away.  In my opinion, perfect luck is him hitting Kennedy once.   The odds of him hitting a moving target two out of three times from roughly 300 feet away when he couldn't hit a stationary target from 100 have to be astronomical.

[Mr. Desmond]

According to the Warren Commission, In April of 1963, Oswald attempted to assassinate a retired General as he sat in his home, with that same rifle and missed from roughly 100 feet away.  In my opinion, perfect luck is him hitting Kennedy once.   The odds of him hitting a moving target two out of three times from roughly 300 feet away when he couldn't hit a stationary target from 100 have to be astronomical.

From reports, Oswald's bullet grazed a window pane and barely missed the general.

From gunsamerica on the assassin and his rifle:

"Most witnesses reported that they heard three shots on that fateful day in Dallas. There was one, followed by a pause, then two more in rapid succession. The shots were fired from approximately 60 feet up, at about an 18 degree angle at a distance of between 175 and 200 feet. In all, the time lapse between the three shots varies depending on whether you believe that it was two shots or three shots that hit JFK and Texas Governor Connolly. At the outside, the time for three shots is about eight seconds. Even with a little bit of bolt trouble this would be feasable, because Oswald had qualified twice at Marksman level in the Marines. That test is rapid fire, 50 rounds at 200 yards at a man-sized target. He scored 48 and 49. You would also have to assume that Oswald knew how to not only properly zero the firearm, but also make sure that it worked properly with the en-bloc clip that was found in the gun."

How the magic bullet worked:

The top picture is the path that many will say makes the magic bullet impossible, but the bottom is a composite drawing that shows that it could be possible based on other video besides the Zapruder film shot that day.

http://www.gunsamerica.com/blog/lee-harvey-oswalds-carcano-rifle-shooting-it-today/

[iacas]

You left parts out. Pertaining to just the text near that picture, for example…

Quote:

The 160gr. full metal jacket bullet was intact, showing almost no damage to the nose, and only minimal damage to the base. It weighed 158 of its original 160 grains.

This one bullet, known as CE399, is said to have gone through 15 layers of clothing, a necktie knot, 7 layers of skin, and 15 inches of tissue, shattering 4 inches of rib and a wrist bone.

Possible? Probably. Likely?

[Mr. Desmond]

You left parts out. Pertaining to just the text near that picture, for example…

Possible? Probably. Likely?

I gave the link… that's everything. I quoted an excerpt to garner interest.

I'm glad you found something you liked.

[Golfingdad]

The odds of him hitting a moving target two out of three times from roughly 300 feet away when he couldn't hit a stationary target from 100 have to be astronomical.

Sure, no doubt it was extremely lucky. But the presence of luck doesn't make it impossible. Further, I'm in the category of people who thinks the odds of all involved (assuming conspiracy here) pulling this off TOGETHER and successfully keeping it a secret for 50 years are 3, 4, 10 or 100 times more "astronomical" than somebody like Oswald (a proven marksman) having a good day.

[iacas]

Sure, no doubt it was extremely lucky. But the presence of luck doesn't make it impossible. Further, I'm in the category of people who thinks the odds of all involved (assuming conspiracy here) pulling this off TOGETHER and successfully keeping it a secret for 50 years are 3, 4, 10 or 100 times more "astronomical" than somebody like Oswald (a proven marksman) having a good day.

Let's be clear about something, though: Oswald wasn't a great marksman. He was for periods of time a mid-level shooter, and was downgraded twice to the lowest level of shooter. That does make him better than people who have no level of shooting, but it was also many, many years before when he was in active military service. Ever so slightly shorter: He was years out of practice from being the lowest level of shooter.

Other than that I agree that the presence of luck does not make something impossible. If you're just considering karma and Oswald with a rifle, you could say the small window thing he nicked when trying to kill the other dude was bad luck and so it evened out if he shot Kennedy.

One thing that's rarely talked about is that the front windshield of the limo had a bullet hole that workers said came from the front, but the windshield was destroyed at the request of government officials. The whole car was hardly treated with the respect such crucial evidence could have been.

Again, I'm not certain that there was more to it than Oswald, but I'm not certain that's all there was to it, either.

[Golfingdad]

Let's be clear about something, though: Oswald wasn't a great marksman. He was for periods of time a mid-level shooter, and was downgraded twice to the lowest level of shooter. That does make him better than people who have no level of shooting, but it was also many, many years before when he was in active military service. Ever so slightly shorter: He was years out of practice from being the lowest level of shooter. Other than that I agree that the presence of luck does not make something impossible. If you're just considering karma and Oswald with a rifle, you could say the small window thing he nicked when trying to kill the other dude was bad luck and so it evened out if he shot Kennedy. One thing that's rarely talked about is that the front windshield of the limo had a bullet hole that workers said came from the front, but the windshield was destroyed at the request of government officials. The whole car was hardly treated with the respect such crucial evidence could have been.

OK. (I was using the "gunsamerica" quote from Jerry to establish that opinion). I think, though, that if I found out definitively today that Oswald was actually a 12 year old boy who held a gun for the first time that morning, I would still be comfortable with the idea that he acted alone and still on the same basis ... The odds of this conspiracy being kept secret this long are higher than the odds of him being lucky that day. Much higher.