Will Tiger Surpass Jack's Major Total (2014 Edition)

[mmoan2]

2 years ago I would have said yes. I wanted to see 2013, and he reinforced my belief that he will. The Masters could've been his without that crazy pitch shot and 2 stroke penalty. Now that 2014 has been a disaster thus far, if he hasn't won 1 more at least by the end of next year, I'm finally entering the no camp. Then again, there was Tom Watson at 59 almost taking the Open a scant 6 years ago. This is why sports is great.

[longbow]

Long time no post.  But on the subject of TW, I told my bro this, everyone is as good now as he was back in the mid to late 90's.  When he came on the scene no one had a work ethic like him, no one.

Now they all do.  That about says it all.  thanks

[Cool Breeze]

Being a Tiger fan, I want to say yes he will break Jack's record.  I'm not sure I really believe it though.

As others have said, I think he's right up there with the best in the game when he's healthy.  Being healthy isn't a given anymore with him though.

So I guess my answer is, maybe.

[Elvisliveson]

I think people also take for granted that many of the games greats- Arnie, Watson, Seve, etc- never won a major past 35 and it's entirely possible Tiger falls into that group. The guys who have won majors into their 40s (Phil, Ernie, Snead, and Nicklaus) have had smoother, more rythmic swings than Tiger and those have tended to stand the test of time better.

I will add to this that Tiger in his prime was an incredibly agressive putter in the mold of Palmer and Watson and once that ability left those two, they were done winning majors.

[BZCDR]

This is just conjecture mixed with wishful thinking, but I think it's possible. As others have said, his putting needs to get back on track, but that should be doable in spite of his injuries. Injuries are a big question though when it comes to other aspects of his game. But I'm just not sure the desire, fire and most of all the confidence, is still there. Maybe it is the bad publicity. Or to a degree resting on his laurels. So it's pissible, but questionable.

[dbuck]

I voted no.

It is not likely that  he will pass or even tie Nicklaus, but it is not impossible. If he is healthy now, and can find a swing that works for him, it is certainly possible, but time is not his friend.

The one thing he does have is experience, which is invaluable at Augusta, and at some of the traditional sites where majors are held. I don't think he wins 4-5 more Masters though, and the US Open is not at Torrey again until 2021.

[9iron]

I vote No.

I discount Tiger's 5 wins from 2013 as well because he has since suffered a ruptured disc in the all too important lower back and those wins were not in any of the 4 majors. Winning in Akron and Winning a Major are two different things.

[zipazoid]

No.

Five Majors is Mickelson's entire career . Seve's too. Some people think just because he's Tiger he can crank out those 5 wins lickety-split. Well, maybe Tiger circa 2000 could, but not a 38-year old with a reconstructed knee & back surgery.

I think he has a couple more majors in him; will top out at 16. But not 5 more? His body can't handle it.

[David in FL]

I wouldn't be shocked if he did, but at this point, I don't think he will. Tough to forget last year though.....5 wins and should have won at least one major. Could have won two.....

[iacas]

Five Majors is Mickelson's entire career. Seve's too. Some people think just because he's Tiger he can crank out those 5 wins lickety-split. Well, maybe Tiger circa 2000 could, but not a 38-year old with a reconstructed knee & back surgery.

I hate that argument. Seve wasn't Tiger. Phil isn't Tiger. Tiger's already eclipsed by a million the careers of thousands of PGA Tour players. Heck, he's already had TWO of Arnold Palmer's careers.

I still voted "no" but Phil winning a major at 44 (Jack was sitting at 14 when he turned 38 too) only helps to illustrate that Tiger can compete for years to come, not that he's definitely done.

[zipazoid]

I hate that argument. Seve wasn't Tiger. Phil isn't Tiger.

But they're both hall of fame careers. In other words, Tiger has to perform at a hall of fame level from this point out. I don't see it. If your no vote is for other reasons, we're both arriving at the same point via different paths, no?

[Spitfisher]

Long time no post.  But on the subject of TW, I told my bro this, everyone is as good now as he was back in the mid to late 90's.  When he came on the scene no one had a work ethic like him, no one. Now they all do.  That about says it all.  thanks

I agree, there is a ton more parity. And as far as working out, I don't believe weights or the navy seal training is key, stretching, yoga, light weight medicine ball type work out regiment is the key, I read somewhere he is the only player lifting big heavy weights....he'll find out one day, that it was not ideal. [quote name="dbuck" url="/t/75673/will-tiger-surpass-jacks-major-total-2014-edition/18#post_1024106"]I voted no. It is not likely that  he will pass or even tie Nicklaus, but it is not impossible. If he is healthy now, and can find a swing that works for him, it is certainly possible, but time is not his friend. The one thing he does have is experience, which is invaluable at Augusta, and at some of the traditional sites where majors are held. I don't think he wins 4-5 more Masters though, and the US Open is not at Torrey again until 2021. [/quote]if experience was assurance for a competitive win at Augusta, Freddy couples would have a couple more. it can't hurt, but a lot of these young guys no where to hit the ball on 13 with Sundays pin from watching it over and over on TV. [quote name="9iron" url="/t/75673/will-tiger-surpass-jacks-major-total-2014-edition/18#post_1024109"]I vote No.  I discount Tiger's 5 wins from 2013 as well because he has since suffered a ruptured disc in the all too important lower back and those wins were not in any of the 4 majors. Winning in Akron and Winning a Major are two different things.  [/quote]. I agree, a couple of those wins were on Florida courses., sorry I just don't take them real seriously, he won, I get that. Lastly if he doesn't get his putter in order as well as driver, both are crucial. much like the other guys, he may very well be stuck at 14.

[9iron]

I hate that argument. Seve wasn't Tiger. Phil isn't Tiger. Tiger's already eclipsed by a million the careers of thousands of PGA Tour players. Heck, he's already had TWO of Arnold Palmer's careers.

I still voted "no" but Phil winning a major at 44 (Jack was sitting at 14 when he turned 38 too) only helps to illustrate that Tiger can compete for years to come, not that he's definitely done.

Phil and Jack played their entire careers with essentially one golf swing, plus neither had the not one but many surgeries that Tiger has now had. I honestly don't think there is any one single metric that works for Tiger as his career is essentially unique to him. At the end of the day we have a guy with all the immense talent, but also the three swing changes and the serious injuries. Plus he is not able to overpower courses relative the field any more. I have to see it to believe it, but I am a born skeptic.

[iacas]

But they're both hall of fame careers. In other words, Tiger has to perform at a hall of fame level from this point out.

That's not really my point. This is close to it:

I honestly don't think there is any one single metric that works for Tiger as his career is essentially unique to him.

The metrics don't work for Tiger. You can't just say "he needs to have Phil's entire career" because he's had 3-4x Phil's career already .

Imagine if there was a player in baseball who could hit 120 home runs a year for 10 years. Then to break a record you say to someone "he basically has to perform at Roger Maris 1961 levels for the next five years. You know what I mean? It's not comparing like to like. Tiger is unique unto himself, except maybe you can compare him to Jack.

I could just as easily say "Tiger needs to repeat between 28% and 35% of the career he's already had" (to tie or beat Jack's major total). That's a more relevant assessment, is it not?

Tiger is an outlier, even compared to Phil Mickelson, Arnold Palmer, etc.

[Aguirre]

For the first time, I'm putting it at less than 50%.  There's still time, though, for Tiger to have one more incredible three year run where he pockets four or five in quick succession, but dude can't stay healthy.  It's one thing that his game is off, it's another that he keeps having surgeries on stuff LIKE HIS BACK, and doesn't even play.

[zipazoid]

That's not really my point. This is close to it:

The metrics don't work for Tiger. You can't just say "he needs to have Phil's entire career" because he's had 3-4x Phil's career already.

Imagine if there was a player in baseball who could hit 120 home runs a year for 10 years. Then to break a record you say to someone "he basically has to perform at Roger Maris 1961 levels for the next five years. You know what I mean? It's not comparing like to like. Tiger is unique unto himself, except maybe you can compare him to Jack.

I could just as easily say "Tiger needs to repeat between 28% and 35% of the career he's already had" (to tie or beat Jack's major total). That's a more relevant assessment, is it not?

Tiger is an outlier, even compared to Phil Mickelson, Arnold Palmer, etc.

My reason for using Phil or Seve isn't to compare their careers to Tiger's. It's to put into context how much further Tiger has to go to break the record. Some think, hey, just five more & he's got the record...like it's almost a given. It's obviously not..he's still a hall of fame career short of the mark. That's the point I'm trying to make.

[zipazoid]

I could just as easily say "Tiger needs to repeat between 28% and 35% of the career he's already had" (to tie or beat Jack's major total). That's a more relevant assessment, is it not?

(Sorry for the double post - I forgot how to multi-quote)

Okay. I can accept that way of putting it; though I really think we're saying the same thing...he's got a long way to go.

But looking at it with your wording - he's been on tour for 18 years now. 28% to 35% of career would be what - 4 to 7 years roughly? In terms of age, that would take him to his mid-40s, which seems to be typically when a player can remain competitive (even an outlier like Tiger...time respects no one).

So, in order for him to break the record he has to play like Tiger Woods for the next 4-7 years . The pre-back & knee surgery Tiger. The Tiger that was cranking out Major wins at a pace of better than one a year . He hasn't won one in six years .

So yeah, it's the same person. But it's not the same golfer any more.

[boogielicious]

@zipazoid

Hit "multi" on the first post, then "quote" on the subsequent posts. It may be harder for Woods to do it.  But TW is the only player I see now who could potentially play at that level.  Even the young guns like Rory still have to learn how to dominate a round.

My reason for using Phil or Seve isn't to compare their careers to Tiger's. It's to put into context how much further Tiger has to go to break the record. Some think, hey, just five more & he's got the record...like it's almost a given. It's obviously not..he's still a hall of fame career short of the mark. That's the point I'm trying to make.

(Sorry for the double post - I forgot how to multi-quote)

Okay. I can accept that way of putting it; though I really think we're saying the same thing...he's got a long way to go.

But looking at it with your wording - he's been on tour for 18 years now. 28% to 35% of career would be what - 4 to 7 years roughly? In terms of age, that would take him to his mid-40s, which seems to be typically when a player can remain competitive (even an outlier like Tiger...time respects no one).

So, in order for him to break the record he has to play like Tiger Woods for the next 4-7 years. The pre-back & knee surgery Tiger. The Tiger that was cranking out Major wins at a pace of better than one a year. He hasn't won one in six years.

So yeah, it's the same person. But it's not the same golfer any more.