What Happens First: Rory Completes Slam or Tiger Wins 15th Major?

[skydog]

Michael Jordan has a better career record in the NBA finals than LeBron. If he decided to lace back up his hightops next year and play again, he'd haver a better chance of winning a title than Lebron, right?? Makes sense to me.

[iacas]

Michael Jordan has a better career record in the NBA finals than LeBron. If he decided to lace back up his hightops next year and play again, he'd haver a better chance of winning a title than Lebron, right?? Makes sense to me.

If we were talking about Jack Nicklaus or even someone like Kenny Perry (since moved on to the Senior Tour mostly), you'd have a point.

[mvmac]

I think you made some good points @billchao

[billchao]

The course suits Tiger pretty well too, seeing as how he's won there four times while Rory has won there zero times. And even when he's not winning, he's often finishing in the top ten. Rory, on the other hand… Missed the cut in 2010, and has a whopping ONE top-ten finish (a T8 this year).

Tiger, in the Masters…

1) Won by a boatload his first time playing as a pro.

2) Has never finished worse than T40 as a pro.

3) Has won four times.

4) Has finished in the top ten in 13 of the 17 times he's played as a pro (that's over 75%).

@billchao's point is that TIGER is more likely to win at Augusta National than Rory, based on the history and evidence. Heck just taking the last five each have played in:

Tiger: T6 T4 T4 T40 T4 (average: 11.6)

Rory: CUT T15 T40 T25 T8 (22 averaging only the four times he made the cut - 29.6 if you give him credit for T60 for the MC).

Again, those are the last five each played.

If, as you say, "that course suits Rory," then Tiger must own the joint, because it suits him a heckuva lot more. Heck, he's won the Masters at a higher rate than Rory's gotten inside the top ten!!!

Yes, exactly. I didn't want to get into all of Tiger's Masters history because someone was surely going to bring up his age or swing changes, but the fact of the matter is, Tiger owns Augusta.

I think you made some good points @billchao

Thanks.

[misty_mountainhop]

Interesting. Went for Rory at AGNC before TW wins another of the big 4. TW has 4 chances per year vs. Rory's one at AGNC but I'm with those who think TW is essentially on a downward spiral. Was amazed he shot 69 in the 1st round at Hoylake but his game after that was pretty awful, even accounting for the fact he's been off the competitive radar for some time.

Next 12 months will tell, as TW keeps telling us he's free of pain post-op so no excuses now.

Yes, exactly. I didn't want to get into all of Tiger's Masters history because someone was surely going to bring up his age or swing changes, but the fact of the matter is, Tiger owns owned Augusta.

Thanks.

Fixed that for you .

[Slice of Life]

Michael Jordan has a better career record in the NBA finals than LeBron. If he decided to lace back up his hightops next year and play again, he'd haver a better chance of winning a title than Lebron, right?? Makes sense to me.

If Jordan was 38...probably...considering he dominated at 35. Not to mention the fact that 38 in golf is not old. Equivalent of maybe 30-32 in basketball...where Jordan was dominating.

Good point though...

[skydog]

If Jordan was 38...probably...considering he dominated at 35. Not to mention the fact that 38 in golf is not old. Equivalent of maybe 30-32 in basketball...where Jordan was dominating.

Good point though...

Kobe vs. Lebron would have been the more appropriate analogy for me to make. Either way, hopefully my point is made- past performance is no indication of future performance once father time has decided to rear his ugly head and there's no way of knowing how early or late in a career it's going to happen. Two years ago, most people wouldn't have thought Dwayne Wade's knees would be done at age 32.

[Slice of Life]

Kobe vs. Lebron would have been the more appropriate analogy for me to make. Either way- past performance is no indication of future performance once father time has decided to rear his ugly head and there's no way of knowing how early or late in a career it's going to happen. Two years ago, most people wouldn't have thought Dwayne Wade's knees would be done at age 32.

I wouldn't say father time has taken its toll on Tiger. He isn't even 40...and it's golf. Not exactly a contact sport lol

[9iron]

Erik and bill, you both make good points about Tiger and Rory at the Masters, but I still disagree with your final analysis. Tiger's top 10 finishes the past 5 or 6 years are just that to me, top tens. He really hasn't threatened in any of these events to the point where he ever led or you even had the impression he could win.

In Tiger's Masters wins he inevitably shot a very low round relative to the field. Not so anymore. The past several years he shoots a tidy weekend score to claw back to T4 or T6, but he never really gets close enough for you to believe he will actually win. The old Tiger would have thrown a 65 in there to take the lead and watch everyone fold.

But you guys make great points. I just don't see it in the same light.

[iacas]

Eric and bill, you both make good points about Tiger and Rory at the Masters, but I still disagree with your final analysis.

Who is this mysterious Eric person to whom you keep responding?

Here's the kicker: you cannot "disagree" with the final analysis. The "final analysis" is a retelling of the facts. Tiger consistently finishes higher, on average, than Rory. He has WON there more frequently (%) than Rory's finished in the top ten.

I never said anything about the chances of his winning going forward . Just what the past can and does tell us. The facts.

Tiger's top 10 finishes the past 5 or 6 years are just that to me, top tens. He really hasn't threatened in any of these events to the point where he ever led or you even had the impression he could win.

In Tiger's Masters wins he inevitably shot a very low round relative to the field. Not so anymore. The past several years he shoots a tidy weekend score to claw back to T4 or T6, but he never really gets close enough for you to believe he will actually win. The old Tiger would have thrown a 65 in there to take the lead and watch everyone fold.

He's gotten closer than Rory to winning, on average. Much closer. And he held the lead, briefly, a few years ago, when he eagled #8 or something IIRC.

You seem to be forgetting how "poorly" Rory's played at Augusta. Even when he had a fairly good lead on Sunday (one time) he played so poorly he finished T15!

[Gunther]

I wouldn't say father time has taken its toll on Tiger. He isn't even 40...and it's golf. Not exactly a contact sport lol

Father time hasn't taken a toll on Tiger? He's been playing golf for 35 years with 4 or 5 surgeries and a completely retooled swing. I'd say Father Time has had a huge impact. The question is whether or not he can fight it off for another few years to capture a major.

[Slice of Life]

Father time hasn't taken a toll on Tiger? He's been playing golf for 35 years with 4 or 5 surgeries and a completely retooled swing. I'd say Father Time has had a huge impact. The question is whether or not he can fight it off for another few years to capture a major.

Five wins last year. Five.

Who else won five tournaments last year? Of course he's older, but I don't think it's his age or physical condition that's holding him back...

Sure, 35 years of golf. What is that equivalent to? 3 years of football?

[Gunther]

Five wins last year. Five.  Who else won five tournaments last year? Of course he's older, but I don't think it's his age or physical condition that's holding him back... Sure, 35 years of golf. What is that equivalent to? 3 years of football?

If not his age or physical condition, then what? His mind? It's a combination of all 3 and all are directly linked to time, which means all become harder and harder to overcome.

[iacas]

If not his age or physical condition, then what? His mind? It's a combination of all 3 and all are directly linked to time, which means all become harder and harder to overcome.

Not to mention increasingly stiffer competition.

Tiger may be "only" 38 but it's an old, battle-weary 38.

[9iron]

Five wins last year. Five.

Who else won five tournaments last year? Of course he's older, but I don't think it's his age or physical condition that's holding him back...

Sure, 35 years of golf. What is that equivalent to? 3 years of football?

You guys talk about Tiger as if he has been winning majors recently when in fact he has not. He hasn't even led a single round of a major in 5 years. Akron isn't Augusta and Muirfield, Ohio isn't The Open Championship.

[iacas]

He hasn't even led a single round of a major in 5 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_U.S._Open_(golf)

T1 after the second round.

And that's not to say anything other than that you goofed on a fact. I think Tiger may win a major or two, but as I said in the other thread: he's not surpassing 18 IMO.

[9iron]

Point made on the T1 after second round at Olympic. My bad. But look at even that event, Erik. Tiger faded badly and did not even finish in the top 10 that year.

Side note, I really thought Furyk would get his second major win there. That hooked drive on, what, 15 or 16 (?) killed him.

[iacas]

Point made on the T1 after second round at Olympic. My bad. But look at even that event, Erik. Tiger faded badly and did not even finish in the top 10 that year.

No disagreement that he "faded." I just want good, correct facts. You don't get to make up your own. You seem to be falling prey to your own opinions, rather than basing the facts on what actually happened.