Does Your 1st Hole Score Affect Rest of Round?

[MEfree]

I looked at my last 11 scores. One the first hole I had 6 pars and 5 bogies.

• When I parred the first hole I averaged 79.3.

• When I bogied the first hole I averaged 79.2.

When I reexamined the original question, "Does a really good or bad score on the 1st hole tend to have an effect on how you score the next 17?", I rationalized that pars and bogies are not really good or really bad. To be really good it has to be a birdie, to be really bad a double bogie or worse.  So, I looked at the rest of my scores for 2014.

All of my opening holes this year were all pars and bogies, so I looked at 2013. In 2013 I opened a round three times with a double bogie and averaged 80.3. I had to go all the way back to November of 2012 before I started with a birdie, and that day I shot 82.

So, in my case, an opening hole score has little affect on my score for the round.

Little effect on your 18 hole score, but a small effect on the score you make the next 17 holes.

Assuming that you always opened with a par 4, then over your last 11 rounds, for the last 17 holes you averaged:

75.3 when parring the first hole

74.2 when bogeying the first hole.

For the 3 rounds you made double, you averaged 74.3 the last 17

For the round you started with a birdie, you took 79 the last 17

Your detailed record keeping seems to indicate you play the last 17 slightly BETTER when you get off to a bad start (but it is not a very statically significant sample size given just a 11 rounds and a cherry picking of the rest).

[Yukari]

It did beginning of my playing days, but not anymore.

Of course, that was also the days when I thought driving range was useless.

Thank goodness, I matured...somewhat.

[RFKFREAK]

The course I usually play is a Par 5, the second longest hole on the course, and is #2 HC. I almost always have trouble with the hole and each time I play I go into the round with a positive attitude and feel that starting my round with a par or bogey will start me off to a round of under 100 which is what I aim for since my goal right now is to consistently shoot in the 90's. But, as I stated, it almost always gets me in trouble and I put up a double, triple, or worse and I'll admit, it gets into my head for a bit. I usually shake it off by the time I get to the next tee but if I put up a big number on the next few holes, knowing what I put up on the first hole, I usually just put more pressure on myself. That said, I try and stay positive and don't give up on a sub 100 round until I know I've had a couple blow up holes by the end the back nine.

[CarlSpackler]

I was replying to Fourputt specifically, not all the responses at that time.  However, I would say the same thing to Carl Spackler. By "effect" I don't just mean good 1st = good round and bad 1st = bad round, but also guys who are more likely to play a good remaining 17 after a bad 1st hole or play a bad remaining 17 after a good 1st hole. If a high % of Carl's best rounds start with double, then maybe a bad opening hole has a positive effect on how he plays the remaining 17.  With Fourputt, he indicated that he has trouble regaining focus when he has had a blow-up after a good 1st hole.  This might only account for a small % of his rounds, but it seems as if something might be going on there. Here is an example with numbers.  Let's say a guy is a bogey golfer averaging 90 on a par 72 with a 1st hole of medium difficulty that he tends to average a bogey.  Let's suppose he knows Erik and has played a million rounds at this course making birdie 3% of those rounds and triple bogey 3% of the time on the 1st hole.  Given that we would expect him to averge +17 the remaining 17 holes, if the 1st hole score has no effect, then he should average 88 when he makes birdie on the 1st hole and 92 when he makes triple.  If his averages are significantly different (higher OR lower) than either of those, then it would seem that the 1st hole score does have an effect on the 17 remaining holes.  (Note- that effect may or may not be mental with a lower=lower or higher=higher correlation as it could just indicate that he is more physically on or off that particular day.  There are also other factors that could be at play like weather).

Ok. Let me say that pretty much all of my good rounds have a crappy hole in it. Sometimes to start. Sometimes to end. All of my bad rounds also have a crappy holes in them. Tonight was mostly crappy holes, but I kept playing and barely missed birdie on 17.

[Golfingdad]

Little effect on your 18 hole score, but a small effect on the score you make the next 17 holes.

Assuming that you always opened with a par 4, then over your last 11 rounds, for the last 17 holes you averaged:

75.3 when parring the first hole

74.2 when bogeying the first hole.

For the 3 rounds you made double, you averaged 74.3 the last 17

For the round you started with a birdie, you took 79 the last 17

Your detailed record keeping seems to indicate you play the last 17 slightly BETTER when you get off to a bad start (but it is not a very statically significant sample size given just a 11 rounds and a cherry picking of the rest).

This is really dumb.  You could create this same set of data by choosing ANY hole of the 18.

If you average 80, then you averaged 77 over the other 17 holes every time you birdie the 11th hole, and you average 74 on the other 17 holes every time you double the 11th.

Conclusion:  You obviously play better on the rest of the holes when you play poorly on 11.

[MS256]

No.

It's just another hole and I don't think much about it one way or another.

I guess the disclaimer would be that almost all of the courses I play have relatively easy first holes. The kind of holes where I might make a bogey if I play it fairly poorly but worse than a bogey is very unlikely.

[MEfree]

This is really dumb.  You could create this same set of data by choosing ANY hole of the 18.

If you average 80, then you averaged 77 over the other 17 holes every time you birdie the 11th hole, and you average 74 on the other 17 holes every time you double the 11th.

Conclusion:  You obviously play better on the rest of the holes when you play poorly on 11.

Wrong- If someone always averages 80 regardless of the score they make on the 1st hole, then they have a tendency to play WORSE after making a low score on 1 and BETTER after making a high score on 1.  Put another way, if the score on #1 didn't correlate to how they scored on the remaining 17, then you would expect the average score on the last 17 to be the SAME regardless of what they scored on #1.

Maybe you will understand better if we talk front 9 & back 9 scores.  Take 2 players who both average shooting 40-40= 80.  Player A averages 40 on the back for rounds where he shoots 38 and lower the front, 39-41 the front and when he shoots 42+ the front.  Player B averages 43 on the back when he shoots 38 or lower the front (average of 37), 40 when he shoots 39-41 (ave of 40) and 37 when he shoots 42+ (ave of 43) the front.  Player A's back 9 score is not correlated to his front 9 score while Player B's is negatively correlated (showing a reversion to the mean type of play).

[mvmac]

I voted no. I've had good and bad rounds making birdie on the first hole and I've had good and bad rounds making double on the first hole. There are just too many things that happen during a round of golf for one hole to have that much "influence" on the other 17.

[RFKFREAK]

The course I usually play is a Par 5, the second longest hole on the course, and is #2 HC.

I almost always have trouble with the hole and each time I play I go into the round with a positive attitude and feel that starting my round with a par or bogey will start me off to a round of under 100 which is what I aim for since my goal right now is to consistently shoot in the 90's. But, as I stated, it almost always gets me in trouble and I put up a double, triple, or worse and I'll admit, it gets into my head for a bit. I usually shake it off by the time I get to the next tee but if I put up a big number on the next few holes, knowing what I put up on the first hole, I usually just put more pressure on myself.

That said, I try and stay positive and don't give up on a sub 100 round until I know I've had a couple blow up holes by the end the back nine.

Wow, I never start well.

I've kept statistics on the last 41 rounds of 18 on non-executive courses and found the following:

Score	Occurances
Bogey	6
Double Bogey	12
Triple Bogey	10
4 Over Par	10
5 Over Par	2
6 Over Par	1

Wow, didn't realized I have never started a round off with a par.

Interestingly enough, in both rounds where I shot under 100, I started the rounds with a double bogey so I guess a double bogey apparently doesn't mean I'll have a bad round.

[MEfree]

With a 34.5 index, a double bogey is an average score, so no reason why you wouldn't follow up with a good (or bad) round.  Looking at your starting scores, I agree you are a slow starter, so a double is actually a better start than normal for you.  Do you ever hit warm up shots at the range?

[Phil McGleno]

What is the point of this thread?-Or any of the threads you start? They all follow the same pattern. 1. Ask basic question. 2. Get answers. 3. Introduce twist and tell people that theyre wrong.-And that your'e right. This one had the added bonus of you continuing to act like a dick about an answer to your book question in an entirely separate thread.-We all noticed that you didnt actually have anything to say about the answer you were given and just continued to nitpick. And @Golfingdad was right that you may as well look at any score on any hole and say it has an effect because it is added to your final score like the othrs.

[Golfingdad]

Wrong- If someone always averages 80 regardless of the score they make on the 1st hole, then they have a tendency to play WORSE after making a low score on 1 and BETTER after making a high score on 1.  Put another way, if the score on #1 didn't correlate to how they scored on the remaining 17, then you would expect the average score on the last 17 to be the SAME regardless of what they scored on #1.

Maybe you will understand better if we talk front 9 & back 9 scores.  Take 2 players who both average shooting 40-40= 80.  Player A averages 40 on the back for rounds where he shoots 38 and lower the front, 39-41 the front and when he shoots 42+ the front.  Player B averages 43 on the back when he shoots 38 or lower the front (average of 37), 40 when he shoots 39-41 (ave of 40) and 37 when he shoots 42+ (ave of 43) the front.  Player A's back 9 score is not correlated to his front 9 score while Player B's is negatively correlated (showing a reversion to the mean type of play).

Sorry, I don't follow you.  Hole 1 is a hole just like any other.  Maybe you can explain it better using my scores ... here are my last 20 (2 of them are on a 9-hole par 3 course, may want to exclude those), and top (Tustin Ranch) to bottom (Crosscreek), here are my first hole scores:  0,0,0,+2,-1,+1,0,0,0,0,0,+1,0,+1,+1,-1,0,+1,0,0

Whoops, I almost forgot.  On three of those rounds I actually started on the 10th hole, and four of the others were shotguns.  Sorry about that.  Hopefully that doesn't completely screw up your entire analysis.

[whatwoodtigerdo]

Not one bit.

[rehmwa]

I hadn't really thought about it.  I'm pretty much involved trying to hit one SHOT at a time.

I will say that if I have a string of clean contact for a few consecutive shots, I start to get into that groove a lot easier as the round progresses....some of my best rounds

However, now I can add one more random thought starting on the 2nd hole.....    ; )

my last informal "tournament" I was the only one to lead off on the 1st hole with a regulation par - seemed like a good start - then I proceeded to trash the rest of the round terribly.  So that's one data point.

[Valleygolfer]

Usually, if I start off with a triple bogey on the first hole, it makes it tough to shoot in the low 80's. Since I am not a "birdie machine" yet, scoring like that can affect the rest of the round.

[RFKFREAK]

With a 34.5 index, a double bogey is an average score, so no reason why you wouldn't follow up with a good (or bad) round.  Looking at your starting scores, I agree you are a slow starter, so a double is actually a better start than normal for you.  Do you ever hit warm up shots at the range?

Yeah, seems like a slow starter for sure.

Normally, I don't hit the range beforehand.  I find it difficult getting there early and spending the extra $10.

Maybe I'll try it the next time I play and see if it has an impact.

[MEfree]

Sorry, I don't follow you.  Hole 1 is a hole just like any other.  Maybe you can explain it better using my scores ... here are my last 20 (2 of them are on a 9-hole par 3 course, may want to exclude those), and top (Tustin Ranch) to bottom (Crosscreek), here are my first hole scores:  0,0,0,+2,-1,+1,0,0,0,0,0,+1,0,+1,+1,-1,0,+1,0,0

Whoops, I almost forgot.  On three of those rounds I actually started on the 10th hole, and four of the others were shotguns.  Sorry about that.  Hopefully that doesn't completely screw up your entire analysis.

If you start on a hole other than 1, then yes, this effects the analysis unless you gave me the score you made on the 1st hole you played.  i.e. If you had a shotgun start on #2 and ended on 1, then the score you made on #1 can't have any effect on the rest of the round (unless you are psychic).

If you gave me the score you made on the 1st hole you played it is possible for me to do some analysis, but it doesn't mean as much since you are playing a variety of courses, possibly with different pars, course ratings and slopes.

Your scores are confusing- you shot 83 & 82 at Tustin Ranch and Crosscreek which you say are 9 hole par 3s...I would have guessed the 30 & 32 at Lake Forest were your 9 hole par 3 scores.

Hypothetically, let's assume that someone shot the following scores with the following par 4 first hole scores on the same golf course.

-1	84
-1	84
Ave Score	84
0	76
0	77
0	78
0	82
0	82
0	83
0	83
0	83
0	84
0	88
Ave Score	81.6
1	76
1	78
1	80
1	81
1	84
Ave Score	81.7
2	83
Ave Score	83
Total Strokes	1466.0
Ave Score	81.44
Ave Per Hole	4.52
Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Birdie	4.76
Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Par	4.56
Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Bogey	4.51
Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Double	4.53

This player seems to play worse after opening with a birdie and best when opening with a bogey.

[whatwoodtigerdo]

If you start on a hole other than 1, then yes, this effects the analysis unless you gave me the score you made on the 1st hole you played.  i.e. If you had a shotgun start on #2 and ended on 1, then the score you made on #1 can't have any effect on the rest of the round (unless you are psychic).   If you gave me the score you made on the 1st hole you played it is possible for me to do some analysis, but it doesn't mean as much since you are playing a variety of courses, possibly with different pars, course ratings and slopes. Your scores are confusing- you shot 83 & 82 at Tustin Ranch and Crosscreek which you say are 9 hole par 3s...I would have guessed the 30 & 32 at Lake Forest were your 9 hole par 3 scores. Hypothetically, let's assume that someone shot the following scores with the following par 4 first hole scores on the same golf course. [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]77[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]81.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]80[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]81[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]81.7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1466.0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]81.44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4.56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4.51[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4.53[/TD] [/TR]

-1

84

-1

Ave Score

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Ave Score

1

1

1

1

1

Ave Score

2

Ave Score

Total Strokes

Ave Score

Ave Per Hole

Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Birdie

Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Par

Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Bogey

Ave Per Hole after 1st Hole Double

This player seems to play worse after opening with a birdie and best when opening with a bogey.

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