Does Your 1st Hole Score Affect Rest of Round?

[MEfree]

What is the point of this thread?-Or any of the threads you start? They all follow the same pattern.

1. Ask basic question.

2. Get answers.

3. Introduce twist and tell people that theyre wrong.-And that your'e right.

This one had the added bonus of you continuing to act like a dick about an answer to your book question in an entirely separate thread.-We all noticed that you didnt actually have anything to say about the answer you were given and just continued to nitpick.

And @Golfingdad was right that you may as well look at any score on any hole and say it has an effect because it is added to your final score like the othrs.

Point of this thread was to find out how TST players future holes are effected by their opening hole, not to tell people they are wrong.  The only reason I felt compelled to chime in after the opening post was when someone said something like- I always shot 80 whether I make a 2 or a 10 on the opening hole, so, NO, the way I play on the next 17 is the same regardless of how I play #1.  Seems obvious to me you played a lot better on the next 17 if you came back to shoot 80 after opening with a 10 than you did when you opened with a 2.

Regarding the other thread, it seems I can't win- If I continue to argue, I am called a dick.  If I let it go, I am still criticized.

[Phil McGleno]

Youre gettin cause and effect wrong.-Obviously your score affects the TOTAL SCORE because you add them all up.--But if you average 80 and you double or birdie the first hole then that adds fewer or more strokes to your score-just like if you double or birdie the 11th hole as @Golfingdad posted.[quote name="MEfree" url="/t/75987/does-your-1st-hole-score-affect-rest-of-round/54#post_1025986"]Point of this thread was to find out how TST players future holes are effected by their opening hole, not to tell people they are wrong.  The only reason I felt compelled to chime in after the opening post was when someone said something like- I always shot 80 whether I make a 2 or a 10 on the opening hole, so, NO, the way I play on the next 17 is the same regardless of how I play #1.  Seems obvious to me you played a lot better on the next 17 if you came back to shoot 80 after opening with a 10 than you did when you opened with a 2.[/quote] You dont play better you just revert to the mean.-The scores could be considered random. Sometimes the first hole is good sometimes it is bad. ONe hole is too small a sample size. Its like taking a lesson and a student hitting one shot better and assuming they have it now, it must be locked in, they just completely improved. Regarding the other thread what the hell could you have to argue.-You got an answer, and chose to nitpick and insult what was clearly a bit of a joke with the million strokes thing.-You can save strokes reading the chapter he mentioned but that answer isnt good enough for you so you insult his math skills-when you clearly missed the million strokes 'if you play enough rounds' joke? [quote name="MEfree" url="/t/75987/does-your-1st-hole-score-affect-rest-of-round/54#post_1025986"]Regarding the other thread, it seems I can't win- If I continue to argue, I am called a dick.  If I let it go, I am still criticized. [/quote]

[Fourputt]

No relationship, despite what you thought you saw from my first post.  Today I started with a par, yet still mixed in 4 doubles from 9 through 18.  Also during that 10 hole run I had 5 pars and one bogey.  10 pars altogether, with 4 doubles and 4 bogies.

Yesterday I played 9 holes (granted that it was the first time I'd touched a club since March), started with a bogey (lipped out a 6 footer for par on my first stroke with a putter in 4 months), then had 3 triples and a double before making my first par on #5.

The first hole simply has no effect on how well I play the rest of the round.  It's totally random.

[Golfingdad]

Your scores are confusing- you shot 83 & 82 at Tustin Ranch and Crosscreek which you say are 9 hole par 3s...I would have guessed the 30 & 32 at Lake Forest were your 9 hole par 3 scores.

That's not what I said.  The comment about the par 3's was locked up in a pair of parentheses as a stand-alone aside.  The Tustin Ranch and CrossCreek comments were just clarifiers towards when I meant by top and bottom.

Regardless, I'm going to have to agree with @whatwoodtigerdo 's assessment of your "analysis."  The entire exercise is pointless.

[Roblar]

Late to the thread and ignoring the direction it took.

I voted "Yes", but primarily because of the inclusion of "really".

A bogey doesn't bother my round. A double might - depending on how I 'earned' it. A triple or higher would definitely affect my round --- certainly my enjoyment of the round. It might not have much affect on my overall score though.

I almost never get birdies or eagles (#1 is a par 5), so... no idea if a really good score would help! ...probably help until the point where I squandered the shots...

[Slice of Life]

[MEfree]

Youre gettin cause and effect wrong.-Obviously your score affects the TOTAL SCORE because you add them all up.--But if you average 80 and you double or birdie the first hole then that adds fewer or more strokes to your score-just like if you double or birdie the 11th hole as @Golfingdad posted.

You dont play better you just revert to the mean.-The scores could be considered random. Sometimes the first hole is good sometimes it is bad. ONe hole is too small a sample size. Its like taking a lesson and a student hitting one shot better and assuming they have it now, it must be locked in, they just completely improved.

Regarding the other thread what the hell could you have to argue.-You got an answer, and chose to nitpick and insult what was clearly a bit of a joke with the million strokes thing.-You can save strokes reading the chapter he mentioned but that answer isnt good enough for you so you insult his math skills-when you clearly missed the million strokes 'if you play enough rounds' joke?

I don't think you fully understand "reversion to the mean"  A random reversion to the mean doesn't always happen within 18 trials.  Suppose you flipped a coin and it came up heads 4 straight times.  Would you expect the next 14 to be 7 heads and 7 tails or 5 & 9?  If it is a random coin, then you would expect it to move towards 50-50, but that doesn't mean it will get there right away (or within 18 trials).

Let's say Andy and Bob both average 4 strokes per hole (72 per 18).  Andy makes a 2 on hole 1 while Bob makes a 6.  Both end up shooting 72.  Who played better the last 17 holes?  Assuming they both played their average score of 4 per hole after the first, then Andy would have shot 70 while Bob would have shot 74.  Instead, Bob played better than average while Andy played worse than average for the last 17.

Andy and Bob may have mentally reverted to the mean score they are comfortable shooting, but, after the 1st hole, one played worse than normal while the other played better than normal to do this.

As far as the million strokes saved, goes, I ignored it the first time Erik posted that as I assumed he was joking.  It was only after he brought it up a 2nd time and explained how it was possible that I chose to respond.

@MEfree...your attempt at some sort of statistical analysis is faulty at best.

Your hypothetical player doesn't have nearly a large enough sample size, especially for doubles. And that also doesn't take into account any other factors...rain, wind, lack of sleep, etc., that affect play.

My "hypothetical" player was the eighteen 18 hole scores GolfingDad asked me to analyze (with a few assumptions I made about which hole was played 1st and what par was which is the reason I called it "hypothetical").  I agree that much more data would be needed to be statistically significant.  That is why I said:

This player seems to play worse after opening with a birdie and best when opening with a bogey.

[Jeremie Boop]

Why should hole 1 score be any more important if you do good or bad? A more meaningful question/poll would be "Does having a good or bad hole during a round make you play better or worse after that hole?" I say this because if a bad hole is going to impact the way you play then it doesn't matter whether it happens on hole 1 or hole 13.

[rehmwa]

You dont play better you just revert to the mean.-

That's a good point, but perhaps his question is more for golfers like me.

I could say I 'typically' play in the low and mid-80's.

But, in reality, my game is ridiculously weird (I'll get a 77, or I'll get a 92) - obviously I'm mental

so it's pretty much, "am I on" today?  or am I in a constant 'meltdown' during my game

perhaps the first hole results would be a factor in my game, if not really so much for the more consistent scorers around here.

I can pretty much say that I don't see it coming on the first hole, but after about 4 holes I'm either cruising along, or recognize I'm in the rut.

It's good to know, so I can work on better techniques (attitudes, whatever) to recover my rounds on a bad day.

I 'get' the point of the question.  But the next step is "for those few that do seem to take their vibe for the round from the first hole performance, what do you do about it? - do you rally?  or do you let it get you down?"

here's a crappy analogy - does your approach shot affect your final score on the hole?   - (it depends, are you good at scrambling or not?.......)

[phan52]

I know it shouldn't but it does, especially a bad score because our first hole is one of the easiest on the course. A birdie not so much as it's a hole I birdie more than most.

[MEfree]

Why should hole 1 score be any more important if you do good or bad? A more meaningful question/poll would be "Does having a good or bad hole during a round make you play better or worse after that hole?" I say this because if a bad hole is going to impact the way you play then it doesn't matter whether it happens on hole 1 or hole 13.

Your ? is also valid (and similar to mine).  I picked the 1st hole to keep it simple.  Also, a bad score on 17 or 18 doesn't leave you much time to play better or worse than normal afterwards.

That's a good point, but perhaps his question is more for golfers like me.

I could say I 'typically' play in the low and mid-80's.

But, in reality, my game is ridiculously weird (I'll get a 77, or I'll get a 92) - obviously I'm mental

so it's pretty much, "am I on" today?  or am I in a constant 'meltdown' during my game

perhaps the first hole results would be a factor in my game, if not really so much for the more consistent scorers around here.

I can pretty much say that I don't see it coming on the first hole, but after about 4 holes I'm either cruising along, or recognize I'm in the rut.

It's good to know, so I can work on better techniques (attitudes, whatever) to recover my rounds on a bad day.

I 'get' the point of the question.  But the next step is "for those few that do seem to take their vibe for the round from the first hole performance, what do you do about it? - do you rally?  or do you let it get you down?"

here's a crappy analogy - does your approach shot affect your final score on the hole?   - (it depends, are you good at scrambling or not?.......)

I agree that there could be a variety of reasons why a good opening hole (or holes) could lead to a good score (or vice versa)- i.e. you might be swinging better than normal, be well rested/physically fit, easier than normal course conditions (i.e. soft greens), etc.  Of course, for some, it might be mental.

For the record, I do believe that some players are completely unaffected by how they play the 1st (or any other hole) and play each hole independently.  I am not arguing with this as long as the numbers players provide back this up.

[isukgolf]

My first hole does impact my mind set a little bit ... a good 1st relaxes me to some degree, a bad start makes me "work harder" on the next few to "right the ship" some ...

I am one of those guys that get jitters in the 1st tee box ... the only tee box I get the jitters in ... just can not help it ...

[MEfree]

This might help clarify what I mean by "affect"

2 hypothetical Golfers both average 5 strokes per hole (90 for 18).  Per 18 holes, both average two 3s (11.1%), four 4s (22.2%), six 5s (33.3%), four 6s (22.2%) and two 7s (11.1%).  Pretend these 18 scores are like a deck of cards (and ignore par/difficulty of hole differences)

Golfer 1's scores are INDEPENDENT of each other meaning he shuffles his deck after each hole.  If he makes a 3 on the 1st hole, he still has a 11.1% of making a 3 on #2.  You would expect him to average 88 after opening with a 3 and 92 after opening with a 7 as you would expect him to play the last 17 in 85 strokes regardless of what he makes on #1.  A score he makes on one hole has NO EFFECT (or predictive value) on the score on any other hole.

Golfer 2 does not reshuffle his deck after each hole.  His scores are DEPENDENT on what he has made on previous holes.  He will average 90 regardless of what he makes on the opening hole.  You can predict what he will make on #18 with 100% confidence based on what he scored on the first 17 holes.  If he makes a 3 on #1, he will take 87 on the remaining 17 holes, but will only take 83 on the last 17 when he starts with a 7.  The score he makes on #1 affects the rest of the round.

So how does "reversion to the mean" work with Golfer 1 who plays each hole INDEPENDENTLY?  If he opens with anything other than a 5, we expect his average score for the round to move towards his mean score of 5 BUT THIS DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE EXPECT IT TO GET THERE BY THE END OF THE 18TH HOLE.  i.e.  Suppose he opens with a 3.  We expect him to average 5 on the remaining 17 holes for an 18 average of 4.89 for the entire round.  If he ends up shooting 88 as expected, his average score started at 3 (after the 1st hole) but moved towards his expected mean during the rest of the round.

My point- If your average 18 hole score is the same regardless of whether you start with a birdie or a triple bogey, then you are showing characteristics of Golfer 2 where the score you make on hole #1 has an effect on what you score the last 17.  Phil's and several other posts seem to think Golfer 2's scores are independent, but drawing from a closed set that is not reset after each draw means future results are effected by past results.

(FWIW, I also believe some golfers may start drawing from a new deck with a different composition of scores but wanted to keep the above examples as simple as possible)

[Cool Breeze]

Doesn't seem to effect mine in any way.

I've parred the first hole en route to a horrible round.

I've double the first hole and ended up with a good score for the round.

It's mental and its individual.  Someone who has a strong mental game would be less impacted than a player who lets things get to him and can't shake the bad holes.

I hit so many bad shots that if I let it get to me, I'd never have a good round.  :)

[newtogolf]

I answered "Yes" because the opening hole at my home course is a Par 5 that on a good day I will have a putt for birdie.  It's well protected by bunkers and thick rough so while a birdie is possible a double or triple bogey isn't that uncommon depending on flag position.

The back 9 on the course is tougher than the front, so in order to score well you really have to gain strokes on the front 9 and minimize damage on the back 9.  If I double or triple the 1st I'm usually so frustrated with myself that I wasted 3 - 4 shots on the hole that it will have a negative effect on the next few holes.   It doesn't ruin my entire round but a bad 1st usually means I have to grind the rest of the round just to maintain my handicap which puts me in a different mental state than if I birdie and have a shot at beating my lowest round.

[Cool Breeze]

I answered "Yes" because the opening hole at my home course is a Par 5 that on a good day I will have a putt for birdie.  It's well protected by bunkers and thick rough so while a birdie is possible a double or triple bogey isn't that uncommon depending on flag position.

Flag position shouldn't turn a birdie opportunity into a double or triple bogey.

Looking at our handicap, we're of roughly the same skill level.  I have no business firing at a flag if its tucked into a corner or the green, protected by bunkers and heavy rough.  Hit to the center of the green and two putt for par.  Even if you're putting horribly that day and three putt, you're looking at bogey and not double or triple.

As Clint Eastwood said in Magnum Force would have said, "A man's got to know his limitations."

[newtogolf]

Flag position shouldn't turn a birdie opportunity into a double or triple bogey.

Looking at our handicap, we're of roughly the same skill level.  I have no business firing at a flag if its tucked into a corner or the green, protected by bunkers and heavy rough.  Hit to the center of the green and two putt for par.  Even if you're putting horribly that day and three putt, you're looking at bogey and not double or triple.

As Clint Eastwood said in Magnum Force would have said, "A man's got to know his limitations."

I agree, I don't fire at the flag but if the green has ridges and levels you have to land the ball on the right level.  If you land the ball too short you get to watch your ball roll back off the green and down the fairway if you go too deep you risk landing in a bunker or thick rough behind the green.   It's not the green alone that leads to a double or triple, there's plenty of fairway bunkers, trees and penal rough before you reach the green that can ruin your score before you get to the green.

[BuckeyeNut]

1st hole......It doesn't effect me in the least.

I'll even extrapolate a little:

The first 5 holes on my home track are holes you want play well because some very difficult holes are coming next!   If I do poorly on the first 5, it does effect me a little because I know I am in for a tough ' grind-it-out' kind of day, but I do not lose hope!!   I've started poorly on many occasions, but played well through the tough holes to "GUT OUT" a good round in the end.