2014 PGA Championship Discussion Thread

[newtogolf]

I think we are all expecting too much from Rory this week. 3 wins in a row is a bit excessive. I think he will finish top 10 however. PGA winners generally play well at the Bridgestone. This year is the year for repeat major winners 2/3. Also I like my PGA picks to be generally ones who have played well as of late or at least this season. Tiger has no chance. Rory too much to ask for. The course is a big one and weather seems to be suspect. To me that leaves a very small group of players IMO to pick from to win this.

What is the basis of your argument here?  Do you think it's not possible for Rory or anyone to win 3 in a row?  Do you think the tougher field will make it unlikely?

Statistically each event is independent of each other and doesn't have any influence on the outcome of the previous ones unless you are considering trends.  In the case of trends I would think they favor Rory given he finished strong this past weekend.

[RJH999]

I think McIlroy could win this by 6 or 7 shots. I hope McIlroy doesn't win by 6 or 7 shots.

[atb5079]

What is the basis of your argument here?  Do you think it's not possible for Rory or anyone to win 3 in a row?  Do you think the tougher field will make it unlikely?

Statistically each event is independent of each other and doesn't have any influence on the outcome of the previous ones unless you are considering trends.  In the case of trends I would think they favor Rory given he finished strong this past weekend.

Statistically it is very uncommon for a player to win 3 in a row, given 2 of those being majors. Its not impossible and if anyone can do it in today's game, its Rory. He most certainly could do it. Again, if he does, I am not gonna drop over. But, I will take the field. I just see somebody else like Rose or Scott winning this one. And yes, I think the tougher field will make it too hard, that he has to be on his A-game to win this. The 3 in a row is more so hanging me up. I dont necessarily like the field as much as I like the other top maybe 5 options.

[jamo]

Probably. And again its pretty dumb I get it. But its a numbers game. If Rory wins, I wont be blown away. But history and statistics dont generally side major-WGC-major 3 in a row winners. Its just a bit much to pick for me.

Then you don't understand how statistics work.

[Slowcelica]

Is anyone going? I live in louisville and will be going tomorrow to the practice round, and then I'll be going Sunday too.

[atb5079]

Then you don't understand how statistics work.

Do elaborate.

[jamo]

Do elaborate.

Because the first two tournaments are in the bank. Done. Weeks ago. Other than indicating the sort of form Rory is in, they don't have any statistical bearing on next week's events. @newtogolf summed it up pretty well.

[brookter]

One thing I don't think has been mentioned so far in the Sergio vs McIlroy discussion is that Rory had a fair amount of good fortune off the tee -- although much has been made of his driving (rightly -- it was brilliant), on at least 3 occasions he was in the trees, but managed to come away unscathed each time.

On the first hole he hit the perfect punch to the green and got a birdie -- that was brilliant. But on at least 2 other occasions, his drive hit a tree and bounced out into the fairway.

He could easily have scored bogies on one or more of those holes and then, who knows, we may be talking about Garcia's win...

Of course, this is rampant speculation -- the 'rub of the green' happens in every single round and Sergio profited from in hugely at the Open when his ball hit the stand on the 13th(?).

My point is not 'what-iffery' — McIlroy was brilliant and rode his luck and thoroughly deserved to win. It's just that there is a very fine line between success and failure and sometimes (not always) a 'choke' comes about simply because that's the way the rub of the green went on the day.

[brookter]

Because the first two tournaments are in the bank. Done. Weeks ago. Other than indicating the sort of form Rory is in, they don't have any statistical bearing on next week's events. @newtogolf summed it up pretty well.

That's true for coin tosses, but is it really true for human beings?  The coin feels no additional pressure because a statistical target is in sight (3-in-a-row etc), but surely it's not unreasonable to suggest that people do feel such pressure, and if they do, then that's a factor which can legitimately be taken into account. The 3rd tournament is not happening strictly in isolation.

Take the standard drill of putting 100 times from 3 feet -- when you're about to take the 100th putt so you can go home, most people feel it's a harder putt than the first because the perceived consequences are greater. That's the whole point of the drill, and you wouldn't say that there is an equal statistical chance of success on the 1st and 100th putts, precisely because the pressure on the golfer has to be taken into account.

I'm not saying that McIlroy will or won't be affected by such pressure (which would have to be balanced against the already massive pressure of trying to win the major): just that I don't think it's strictly true to say that each golf event can be viewed as a statistically independent event, because the existence of the statistical target (this is the nth win in succession) is itself a possible variable in the equation.

[newtogolf]

That's true for coin tosses, but is it really true for human beings?  The coin feels no additional pressure because a statistical target is in sight (3-in-a-row etc), but surely it's not unreasonable to suggest that people do feel such pressure, and if they do, then that's a factor which can legitimately be taken into account. The 3rd tournament is not happening strictly in isolation.

Take the standard drill of putting 100 times from 3 feet -- when you're about to take the 100th putt so you can go home, most people feel it's a harder putt than the first because the perceived consequences are greater. That's the whole point of the drill, and you wouldn't say that there is an equal statistical chance of success on the 1st and 100th putts, precisely because the pressure on the golfer has to be taken into account.

I'm not saying that McIlroy will or won't be affected by such pressure (which would have to be balanced against the already massive pressure of trying to win the major): just that I don't think it's strictly true to say that each golf event can be viewed as a statistically independent event, because the existence of the statistical target (this is the nth win in succession) is itself a possible variable in the equation.

That part requires insight into Rory's psyche, which none of us have.  I don't know about you, but if I play 2 good rounds back to back I'm feeling confident heading into the third, I'm not feeling additional pressure because of it.  I realize I'm not playing professional golf, but I think the pressure of a Major is pretty substantial and a guy would rather go into one off a victory or two rather than a cut or poor finish.

[brookter]

That part requires insight into Rory's psyche, which none of us have.  I don't know about you, but if I play 2 good rounds back to back I'm feeling confident heading into the third, I'm not feeling additional pressure because of it.  I realize I'm not playing professional golf, but I think the pressure of a Major is pretty substantial and a guy would rather go into one off a victory or two rather than a cut or poor finish.

Of course. But professional gofers who are in the lead going into the final day (and therefore probably have had good days up till then) can and do feel additional pressure. I don't disagree that it's difficult to assess the effect on an individual, I'm simply making the point that, unlike with the series of coin tosses, the probability of success in each successive tournament is not the same for many reasons, one of which could be every player's recent history / form. The third tournament therefore isn't a strictly independent event and in that sense the first two may not be 'in the bank, weeks ago', but still have some bearing on what happens now.

[Zeph]

I don't bet, but I would be more prone to put more on someone that is winning a lot lately, than anyone else.

[brookter]

I don't bet, but I would be more prone to put more on someone that is winning a lot lately, than anyone else.

Exactly (in fact, I just have...) -- which sort of shows that tournaments aren't to be treated wholly as isolated events.

[ChrisP]

I know Tiger's agent said you may not know until Wednesday, but I have a hunch we'll know by today whether Tiger plays or not. I think if he is going to play, he's going to want to get on the grounds at Valhalla and at least hit a few balls. The longer he waits to decide, the less likely the chance he will play.

[newtogolf]

Exactly (in fact, I just have...) -- which sort of shows that tournaments aren't to be treated wholly as isolated events.

You're contradicting yourself here if you put money on Rory.  You voiced concern with Rory winning the PGA Championship because of the pressure he'd feel from winning the two previous events.  My point was each tournament is an independent event but you would look at past tournaments to establish trends.  Trends may indicate if the player going into a tournament is peaking or crashing.  Rory seems to be peaking so despite the potentially added pressure he still has one of the best chances of winning this week.

[ChrisP]

Hard to put $$$ on Rory with his odds 4-1. That's too low for my blood. I like looking for value. I'd rather wait to see where he stands after the first round and see if his odds drop and then maybe consider putting some change on him. As much as I hate him, I had to drop 5 bucks on Patrick Reed. I thought 80/1 was too good to pass up. Same with Sergio at 25-1.

[RJH999]

I like Angel Cabrera at 80-1 and even MAJ at 150-1. Other good values -Kiradech Aphibarnrat(500-1) -Kevin Streelman(300-1) -Erik Compton/David Toms(250-1) -Mark Brooks(Just Kidding)

[RandallT]

Then you don't understand how statistics work.

I remember a Benny Hill monologue bit where he said: The chances of being on a plane with a bomb is a million to one. And the chances of being on a plane with two people bringing bombs is a million times a million to one. [pause]. So for the safest possible air travel, I always carry a bomb. Infallible logic to me.