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brookter

Lowest Score Wins: Calculating the shots gained for SV values

5 posts in this topic

I'm not sure I understand how the 'shots to be gained' values are being calculated. Or at least, I think I understand the principle and where the base data is coming from, but I don't understand how it is being applied in the following case.

The discussion on Driving the Ball on p80 begins by reminding us that a typical 90s golfer can save nearly 3 shots per round, an 80s golfer can save 2 shots and so on.

Yet, directly below, the S value ("How many shots can you save each time by improving at the skill" (pxiii)) is 0.5 for 90s, 0.3 for 80s etc. If 'shots per time' means 'every time you use your driver off the tee', then clearly the calculation isn't Shots times Opportunities .

I'm obviously missing something, but I can't find a way of squaring these two figures.

It looks like it must be that the S value is tied to a different level of improvement than the '20 yards and 1 degree accuracy' used in the text above, so what is that level of improvement? It can't be the Ceiling figure, because as the text agrees, that would be unattainable for most golfers.

This doesn't really affect the value of the lessons in the book, but it's bugging me that I can't work what's going on...

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The discussion on Driving the Ball on p80 begins by reminding us that a typical 90s golfer can save nearly 3 shots per round, an 80s golfer can save 2 shots and so on.

Yes. The Ceiling is a lot more than 1° or 20 yards better, though. The ceiling is an average PGA Tour player.

Yet, directly below, the S value ("How many shots can you save each time by improving at the skill" (pxiii)) is 0.5 for 90s, 0.3 for 80s etc. If 'shots per time' means 'every time you use your driver off the tee', then clearly the calculation isn't Shots times Opportunities.

Sure it can be.

You've seemingly confused the ceiling (which plays a role in determining the S-value) with some of the data in the preceding paragraph. The ceiling is not 1°/20 yards better.

It looks like it must be that the S value is tied to a different level of improvement than the '20 yards and 1 degree accuracy' used in the text above, so what is that level of improvement? It can't be the Ceiling figure, because as the text agrees, that would be unattainable for most golfers.

It is based on the ceiling value. It's how far you are away from the "gold standard" in any particular skill.

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Thanks for you reply.

Quote:
Yes. The Ceiling is a lot more than 1° or 20 yards better, though. The ceiling is an average PGA Tour player.

Quote:
You've seemingly confused the ceiling (which plays a role in determining the S-value) with some of the data in the preceding paragraph.

I understood that the ceiling relates to tour players and that it's not limited to 20 yes / 1 deg. I was trying to work out how the figures in the paragraph relate to the SCOR figures, that's all.

Let me put it another way. When I said it can't be If 'shots per time' means 'every time you use your driver off the tee', you've corrected me and said 'Sure it can be'.

OK, so that's S * O = 0.5 * 14 or 7 shots per round but only if the average 90s golfer can improve their driving performance to the level of the average tour pro . Is that right? Of course, lesser improvement will mean fewer shots saved.

If so, given that you've said that they could improve by 2.5 shots simply by achieving 20 yds / 1 degree improvements, then it implies that they need to increase average distance and accuracy by just under 3 times (≈60 yds and the equivalent improvement in accuracy) to save those 7 shots each round, on average. (7 / 2.5 = 2.8 ish.)

Is that how it works?

Again, I'm not questioning the validity of the methodology: just trying to understand it.

Thanks

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Pretty much. You also have to factor in penalty shots too, but yes, you're pretty much there.

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