World Series Predictions

Day 119: 4/24/24 Chipping and pitching followed by putting through 50 mm gates.

@boogielicious and I are definitely in for the Stay & Play and will need the extra night's stay on Friday. I don't know what the plans are for our group on Friday but even if we don't make it for dinner with the rest of the Friday arrivals, I'll be more than happy to meet up somewhere for a beer or something.

Taking your dispersion and distance in consideration I analyzed the 4 posible ways to play the hole, or at least the ones that were listed here. I took the brown grass on the left as fescue were you need to punch out sideways to the fairway and rigth of the car path to be fescue too.  Driver "going for the green"  You have to aim more rigth, to the bunker in order to center your shotzone in between the fescue.  Wood of 240 over the bunkers I already like this one more for you. More room to land between the fescue. Balls in the fescue 11% down from 30% with driver. Improve of score from 4.55 to 4.40. 4 iron 210 yards besides the bunkers.    Also a wide area and your shot zone is better than previous ones. This makes almost the fescue dissapear. You really need to hit a bad one (sometimes shit happens). Because of that and only having 120 yards in this is the best choice so far. Down to 4.32 from 4.40. Finally the 6 Iron 180 yards to avoid all trouble.    Wide area an narrow dispersion for almost been in the fairway all the time. Similar than the previous one but 25 yards farther for the hole to avoid been in the bunkers. Average remains the same, 4.33 to 4.32.  Conclusion is easy. Either your 4iron or 6 iron of the tee are equaly good for you. Glad that you made par!

Wish I could have spent 5 minutes in the middle of the morning round to hit some balls at the range. Just did much more of right side through with keeping the shoulders feeling level (not dipping), and I was flushing them. Lol. Maybe too much focus on hands stuff while playing.

Last year I made an excel that can easily measure with my own SG data the average score for each club of the tee. Even the difference in score if you aim more left or right with the same club. I like it because it can be tweaked to account for different kind of rough, trees, hazards, greens etc.     As an example, On Par 5's that you have fescue on both sides were you can count them as a water hazard (penalty or punch out sideways), unless 3 wood or hybrid lands in a wider area between the fescue you should always hit driver. With a shorter club you are going to hit a couple less balls in the fescue than driver but you are not going to offset the fact that 100% of the shots are going to be played 30 or more yards longer. Here is a 560 par 5. Driver distance 280 yards total, 3 wood 250, hybrid 220. Distance between fescue is 30 yards (pretty tight). Dispersion for Driver is 62 yards. 56 for 3 wood and 49 for hybrid. Aiming of course at the middle of the fairway (20 yards wide) with driver you are going to hit 34% of balls on the fescue (17% left/17% right). 48% to the fairway and the rest to the rough.  The average score is going to be around 5.14. Looking at the result with 3 wood and hybrid you are going to hit less balls in the fescue but because of having longer 2nd shots you are going to score slightly worst. 5.17 and 5.25 respectively.    Things changes when the fescue is taller and you are probably going to loose the ball so changing the penalty of hitting there playing a 3 wood or hybrid gives a better score in the hole.  Off course 30 yards between penalty hazards is way to small. You normally have 60 or more, in that cases the score is going to be more close to 5 and been the Driver the weapon of choice.  The point is to see that no matter how tight the hole is, depending on the hole sometimes Driver is the play and sometimes 6 irons is the play. Is easy to see that on easy holes, but holes like this:  you need to crunch the numbers to find the best strategy.