Locating your ball on a good shot?

Last year I made an excel that can easily measure with my own SG data the average score for each club of the tee. Even the difference in score if you aim more left or right with the same club. I like it because it can be tweaked to account for different kind of rough, trees, hazards, greens etc.     As an example, On Par 5's that you have fescue on both sides were you can count them as a water hazard (penalty or punch out sideways), unless 3 wood or hybrid lands in a wider area between the fescue you should always hit driver. With a shorter club you are going to hit a couple less balls in the fescue than driver but you are not going to offset the fact that 100% of the shots are going to be played 30 or more yards longer. Here is a 560 par 5. Driver distance 280 yards total, 3 wood 250, hybrid 220. Distance between fescue is 30 yards (pretty tight). Dispersion for Driver is 62 yards. 56 for 3 wood and 49 for hybrid. Aiming of course at the middle of the fairway (20 yards wide) with driver you are going to hit 34% of balls on the fescue (17% left/17% right). 48% to the fairway and the rest to the rough.  The average score is going to be around 5.14. Looking at the result with 3 wood and hybrid you are going to hit less balls in the fescue but because of having longer 2nd shots you are going to score slightly worst. 5.17 and 5.25 respectively.    Things changes when the fescue is taller and you are probably going to loose the ball so changing the penalty of hitting there playing a 3 wood or hybrid gives a better score in the hole.  Off course 30 yards between penalty hazards is way to small. You normally have 60 or more, in that cases the score is going to be more close to 5 and been the Driver the weapon of choice.  The point is to see that no matter how tight the hole is, depending on the hole sometimes Driver is the play and sometimes 6 irons is the play. Is easy to see that on easy holes, but holes like this:  you need to crunch the numbers to find the best strategy.     

Very much so. I think the intimidation factor that a lot of people feel playing against someone who's actually very good is significant. I know that Winged Foot pride themselves on the strength of the club. I think they have something like 40-50 players who are plus something. Club championships there are pretty competitive. Can't imagine Oakmont isn't similar. The more I think about this, the more likely it seems that this club is legit. Winning also breeds confidence and I'm sure the other clubs when they play this one are expecting to lose - that can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Ah ok I misunderstood. But you did bring to light an oversight on my part.

I was agreeing with you/jumping off from there.

Who?