Re: Jack or Tiger: Who's the greatestI've looked at Jacks winning ratio 1962-72, and from there to age 50, and done a conservative projection.
Tiger won at a rate of 25% 1996-06. Jack won at a rate of 18% in his first 11 seasons and only 9% from '72-'90. I believe Tiger's performance will not decline at the same rate as Jack's; however, if you conservatively estimate the same rate of decline as an equal ratio to 2025, Tiger can be expected to reach age 50 with more than 90 Tour wins.
Given that players like Funk are still winning on the PGA Tour in their late 40's and early 50s, it is reasonable to assume Tiger will be winning at that age as well. Also, in looking forward you have to consider Tiger retooled his swing twice in the first ten years. If he has now settled on a swing that will work for him as he ages, which was his stated goal, his numbers might actually improve over the next ten years.
Given Tiger's focus and conditioning, isn't it fair to expect him, with good health, to have more than 100 wins and 20+ majors?
Imagine the numbers if Tiger played as many events as Vijay! He'd surely already have the 60 wins Johnny Miller estimated for his career back in '96... "maybe 60, at the outside".