Shooting Down PGA Tour's "Todd Hamilton Scenario"

Greetings and Happy 4th of July Holiday Everyone ....

It was part of the answer to the very first question in a PGA Tour Fed Ex Cup Q and A Session .

The PGA Tour "defended" their decision not to apply heavier weighting to points values for the four major championships plus the Players Championship by using 2004 British Open champ Todd Hamilton as an example. The Tour suggested that if the Fed Ex Cup had been contested in 2004 -AND- if the Majors-Players points values were heavily weighted, Hamilton, #11 in money, could have conceivably finished AHEAD of Tiger Woods (#4, money), and possibly even Ernie Els (#2 money).

Well -- I did some research and calculations to see if Todd Hamilton would have indeed finished as the Tour suggested. The result - in a points chase, Todd Hamilton would have finished 9th!

For my calculations, I first multiplied the base Fed Ex Cup Points Scale of 25000 (4500-1st, 2700-2nd, 1700-3rd, etc) by 40 because I wanted more "attractive" figures to work with. Thus a base scale of 1,000,000 with 180,000-1st, 108,000-2nd, 68,000-3rd, etc). The scale is adjusted to award at least 4000 points for 50th place and up, so the actual minimum base total is 1,080,000 points.

For the Match Play, I employed a slight modification of the original 1999 money distribution. The Mercedes and Tour Championships points assignments were based on the original 1987 Tour Championship money distribution, with each player 30th and upwards assured of receiving at least as many points as awarded for 30th.

Then my modified points values were weighted as follows ...

1.0x .. all regular open events
1.2x .. Mercedes Championships, Pebble Beach, Bob Hope, Bay Hill, Heritage, Byron Nelson, Colonial, Memorial and The International
2.0x .. Official Money WGC events, Western Open, Canadian Open and Tour Championship
3.0x .. Masters, US Open, British Open, PGA Championship
3.2x .. Players Championship

NOTE: By comparison, the Fed Ex Cup weighting is 1.0x (regular events, except those opposite the British or a WGC event which are 0.5x), 1.05x (WGC events), 1.1x (Four Grand Slam Majors plus Players Championship).

Then I did points calculations for each of the 2004 Top 15 Money Leaders , based on their finishes in 2004 Official PGA Tour Events

Here are the points standings.

Before the Tour Championship ...

1. Vijay Singh | 2,908,207
2. Phil Mickelson | 1,972,333
3. Ernie Els | 1,754,640
4. Tiger Woods | 1,354,617
5. Stewart Cink | 1,220,526
6. Adam Scott | 1,101,812
7. Retief Goosen | 1,010,500
8. Stephen Ames | 989,294
9. Todd Hamilton | 966,993
10. Chris DiMarco | 913,326
11. Davis Love III | 880,126
12. Sergio Garcia | 790,393
13. Mike Weir | 787,505
14. Stuart Appleby | 759,193
15. Mark Hensby | 728,382

And then after the Tour Championship ...
NOTE: 2004 Official Money Rank in parenthesis
1. Vijay Singh (1)| 2,968,207
2. Phil Mickelson (3)| 2,011,133
3. Ernie Els (2)| 1,808,640
4. Tiger Woods (4)| 1,570,617
5. Retief Goosen (6)| 1,470,500
6. Stewart Cink (5)| 1,246,126
7. Adam Scott (7)| 1,138,612
8. Stephen Ames (8)| 1,071,961
9. Todd Hamilton (11)| 999,393
10. Chris DiMarco (12)| 947,726
11. Davis Love III (10)| 880,126
12. Mike Weir (14)| 870,172
13. Sergio Garcia (9)| 832,393
14. Mark Hensby (15)| 811,049
15. Stuart Appleby (13)| 801,593

As I said, Todd Hamilton finished 9th in points. And you can see how Woods and Els finished. Hamilton's "great year" (PGA Tour's quote) was actually two wins plus a tie for 6th for his only other Top-10, and a total of 8 Top-25's. Hamilton played 27 times, missing 8 cuts including the US Open. For the 11 events where he finished outside the Top-25, his average place finish was 47.27 !!

So, did my heavy weighting of points for the Majors and the Players plus other events make a real difference for Mr. Hamilton. Not that I can see.

So much for the PGA Tour's "explanation" of not using heavier points values weighting for the big events.

As for some other players in 2004 ...

Phil Mickelson, because he played and placed in more events, finished ahead of Ernie Els on the points list. Retief Goosen, 6th in money, competing in just 16 events (like Els), finished only 5th in points despite the weighting applied to his US Open (3.0x) and Tour Championship (2.0x) points.

Chris DiMarco, 12th in money, was T-2nd at the PGA, T-6th at the Masters and T-9th at the US Open, each event's points weighted at 3.0x, which lifted him to 10th in points. Mike Weir, 14th in money, 12th in points, was aided by 3.0x weighting at the US and British Opens, by 2.0x weighting at the Canadian Open and Tour Championship. Weir would have finished 9th in points if he could have defeated Vijay Singh in the Canadian Open playoff.

Sergio Garcia, 9th in money, competing in just 18 events, finished 13th in points on the strength of two wins, three other Top-10's, plus five other finishes in the Top-25. In six other events, Garcia's place finish average was 40.5. And the other two events? - Missed Cut (British Open, PGA).

Mark Hensby, 15th in money, 14th in points, played 29 events. He missed 9 cuts and withdrew from one other. In addition to his John Deere win, Hensby had 3 other Top-3's, 4 other Top-10's and 4 other Top-25's. The average place finish for the seven non-Top 25 events was 41.43. Oh yes, and Hensby did not qualify for the Players, the Masters, the US Open or the British Open. He finished T-68th at the PGA!

So, what conclusion - RE Points Values Weighting - would you draw from the examples shown in this post?

Thanx-A-Lot, Frank-0-Sport

Greetings ...

Just been into other things. Actually I have posted this particular topic in a number of places, and decided to include you guys in the mix.

Thanx-A-Lot, Frank-0-Sport

how long did it take you to all those calculations....geez, and i thought my calculus homework was tedious

Greetings ...

Off and on, over a six-day period. Would work on 2-3 players at a time, then do other things, then come back to work on more players.

Thanx-A-Lot, Frank-0-Sport