Mental Game and Course Management help.

I fell apart coming down the stretch my last round.

14 - Par 4 - 3i off the tee. GW to about 12feet. Left to right breaker. Bird
15 - Par 4 - Driver through a dogleg, LB. Provisional in a better position, botched approach shot. Double
16 - Par 3 - 7iron to about 20 feet. Poor 1st putt, but made the 5 footer for par.
17 - Par4 uphill dogleg. Took an agressive line and tried to hit a 3i along the left side. Ended up starting it too far left and losing the ball. Provisional was off the toe and very short. Approach shot I tried to hit a 5 iron draw into the green which I ended up hanging out into a bunker.......blahhh....Triple.
18 - Par 5 - Driver to right side of the fairway. A few paces from the 200 yard marker, great lie, no shadows and 3iron was just calling me. The shot was over a lake and over a bunker. I was over confident so I was only concerned with being able to stop a 3iron. Naturally I ended up thinning it into the lake....blam....Double

I don't add up the card until the round is over, but I kind of know when I'm going to be north or south of 90. After 15th, I still felt I had a shot of clipping the 90 mark. My confidence level was really high. Even though I lost the ball, I felt ok because I didn't know the landing zone limits. Ended up with a 47 on the back with a 92 total.

In this string of holes, which was the poor decision(s) ? I see the 17th tee shot as the wrong play, since I went on tilt after that shot. Can you guys offer some advice on the mental game/course mangament ?

Thanks,
Scott

Hind sight is 20/20, and if you hit the shots well the story would have been very different. The only real hot spots I pull out of your thread are the agressive line on 17 and putting it in the water on 18. Without seeing how rough the dogleg is it's tough to judge whether the move was right, but one thing to try differently next time is start it more right off the box and try to draw it where you need it. That or maybe even lay up if your second shot would still get you in position for a par.

On 18, tough to blame yourself for going for the green if you have that 200 yard shot in the bag. Sounds like it was just a missed shot, which gets us all from time to time. Really the only other option there (for me anyways) is to lay up to the water and take a short iron or wedge to the green. Not sure where the water was in relation to the 200 marker and the green, but if the water was closer to the green and laying up would get you the par, that's likely what I would have done (tough to get the thought of dunking it into the water out of your head when you have to carry a long way to clear it).

The risk for cutting doglegs on 15 and 17 seems to be greater than the reward. Actually, what reward? Play into the fairway for a shot at par or an easy bogey. On the 18th, lay up and pitch on for a par or maybe a bird.

Just based on what you wrote, the poorest decision you made was to use your 3i. It put you in harms way 75% of the time that you used on those 5 holes. Twice you tried to be aggressive with it (on the 17th tee and on the approach at 18). Both times, it resulted in a penalty stroke. On the provisional ball at 17, you hit it off the toe resulting in a weak short shot. While it didn't cost you a penatly stroke, it forced you to hit your 5i on your approach. Had you hit your 3i well on the provisional, your second shot would've been with a 7i or even an 8i. So, I think you stood a better chance of finding the putting surface with a 7 or 8i and possibly salvaging bogie. The only time your 3i didn't cause you harm--at least none that you spoke of, was hole 14. So, based on the above, I would reconsider using that club and possibly replacing it with a 3 hybrid. A 3i is pretty unforgiving overall--and your stats seem to back that up. A 3 hybrid will get the ball up sooner/higher than a 3i and is much more forgiving. Even if you thin it a little, the net results will still be better than a thinned shot with your 3i. In fact, just based on your concern of being able to hold the green with the 3i on the approach at 18 meant that you had doubts that it was the right club to hit. Sure, from a distance standpoint, it was the right club, but it may not have been the right club for the shot you wanted to hit (carry the trouble in front of the green and hold on the green). It's shots like this that the hybrids were made for--long carries with the ability to hold the greens. Overall, I would say get a hybrid 3 and hit away from trouble. If trouble is left, hit it towards the right and visa versa. If trouble is short (as it was on the 18th with both water and sand), hit it long and visa versa.