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2012 MLB post season predictions? - Page 2

post #19 of 44

I've always been a  A's fan, coming into the year like everyone else I figured at lest a .500 or below team. Now that they've made the playoffs and down 0-2 it sucks real bad. Hopefully if they don't sweep Detroit which is very likely, they don't blow the team up bad add pieces like someone who can hit .300! The A's have way too many Mendoza line players. It's not over till it's over but right now Detroit is proving D's are better than A's g2_eek.gif

post #20 of 44

It's too bad for both the A's and Giants. Both teams look like they're playing spring training baseball. Only 1 teams came from behind to win a best-of-5 series, but I highly doubt either team will accomplish that, especially with the Giants going on the road for the last 3 games. Not really a big fan of the "home field advantage" set up the MLB changed. Take the A's for example. Down 0-2 going home for the last 3 games. I feel like home field advantage is no longer an "advantage" when your backs against the wall like that. 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lesterday View Post

I've always been a  A's fan, coming into the year like everyone else I figured at lest a .500 or below team. Now that they've made the playoffs and down 0-2 it sucks real bad. Hopefully if they don't sweep Detroit which is very likely, they don't blow the team up bad add pieces like someone who can hit .300! The A's have way too many Mendoza line players. It's not over till it's over but right now Detroit is proving D's are better than A's g2_eek.gif

post #21 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

We are going to see a rematch of the 1989 World Series ... but hopefully without all of the shaking.

 

WC preditions:  Atlanta and Texas both winning at home tomorrow.

 

LDS:  Yanks over Texas in 4.  Atlanta will beat the Nationals in 5.  Oakland over Detroit in 5.  SF over Cincinnati in 4.

 

LCS:  A's over Yanks in 7 (hopefully because of the benefit of a bogus 'out' call at the plate) and Giants over Braves in 6.

 

WS:  A's in 5.  (Maybe the Bash Brothers will throw out first pitches in game 3 in Oakland??)

 

When is the sequel "Moneyball 2: Electric Boogaloo" coming out??  Forget Cabrera and Trout, Billy Beane should be MVP this year!

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

BTW, if you are a betting man, you might be advised to do the exact opposite of whatever I say. c2_beer.gif

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by RPMPIRE View Post

It's too bad for both the A's and Giants. Both teams look like they're playing spring training baseball. Only 1 teams came from behind to win a best-of-5 series, but I highly doubt either team will accomplish that, especially with the Giants going on the road for the last 3 games. Not really a big fan of the "home field advantage" set up the MLB changed. Take the A's for example. Down 0-2 going home for the last 3 games. I feel like home field advantage is no longer an "advantage" when your backs against the wall like that. 

I warned you!!  Yes, it's still early, but so far the only team I've picked to win that has even won a single game is the Yankees.  Yikes ... I'm actually worse than I expected.

post #22 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by ditchparrot19 View Post

No way you get a double play off a ball hit that deep. Not even with a Molina with two broken ankles running.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

Perhaps not ... but that isn't part of the rule.  The umpire only has to make the judgement that the infielder is making the play with ordinary effort.  If you had to consider the possibility of whether or not a double play was actually turnable, then you'd never call the infield fly rule if Vince Coleman or Rickie Henderson were on the basepaths.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by ditchparrot19 View Post

Bottom line: It was nowhere near the worst call of even recent postseason history, but it was not a good call, and it's one that's not made under normal circumstances with umpires stationed only at the bases. The perspective was skewed.

 

I read on ESPN.com that there were seven infield-fly-rule balls that hit the ground over the past three seasons. Of those, the farthest one from the plate was 178 feet. The ball yesterday traveled 225 feet.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

This is a really good point ... I had not thought of this.  A regular game without outfield umpires means it's up to the 3rd base umpire to make that call.  He's probably going to see that ball go so far over his head that there is no way he considers it an infield fly, even though by the definition of the rule, it can be argued as such.  (Which I have been doing)

 

Either way, solid point.

I realize it is a dead horse at this point, but with the help of a coworker I just realized something else.  The infielder peeled off because he quite obviously THOUGHT he heard the left fielder calling him off, but you can see from the video that the left fielder has no intentions of going after it.  There is only one other person in the stadium that might be close enough to the two of them to be heard ... and that is the left field umpire.  It's highly possible that his yelling "INFIELD FLY RULE!" is precisely WHY the infielder peeled off in the first place.  Hence, if he hadn't made the call, he wouldn't have jumped out of the way and it would have been caught.  Furthermore, his calling it late caused the runners to be further off their bases than normal, which further allowed them to advance once the ball hit the ground.  No call means the ball is caught, which means the runners retreat.  The next batter walked, but he was probably pitched to differently with one out and first base empty ... so really the call didn't hurt the Braves, it helped them.

 

So pipe down Atlanta!

post #23 of 44

Normally I am a Red Sox fan (yikes this year!) but I am pulling for Baltimore.  They have been down so long, it would be good for them to have a good post season.  They need to fill the seats in that beautiful Camden yards park.  It is a gem.

 

I was a big Brooks/Frank Robinson fan as a kid too. 

post #24 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

I realize it is a dead horse at this point, but with the help of a coworker I just realized something else.  The infielder peeled off because he quite obviously THOUGHT he heard the left fielder calling him off, but you can see from the video that the left fielder has no intentions of going after it.  There is only one other person in the stadium that might be close enough to the two of them to be heard ... and that is the left field umpire.  It's highly possible that his yelling "INFIELD FLY RULE!" is precisely WHY the infielder peeled off in the first place.  Hence, if he hadn't made the call, he wouldn't have jumped out of the way and it would have been caught.  Furthermore, his calling it late caused the runners to be further off their bases than normal, which further allowed them to advance once the ball hit the ground.  No call means the ball is caught, which means the runners retreat.  The next batter walked, but he was probably pitched to differently with one out and first base empty ... so really the call didn't hurt the Braves, it helped them.

 

So pipe down Atlanta!

 

I've never seen an infielder "back off" just because he hears "infield fly rule." They still catch the ball.

 

Some of the "facts" (not really, but they're really difficult to argue IMO) of the matter are:

  1. It wasn't an infield fly. No way, no how. The guy wasn't camped under the ball, it wasn't a "routine" catch, etc. You can have an infield fly in the shallow outfield, that's not the question.
  2. The infield fly rule is designed to protect the offensive team from a player dropping an easy ball in order to get a double-play or get a faster lead runner out (by forcing).
  3. The Cards would not have doubled off two runners from where the ball fell to the ground, even if the left-fielder got it on the hop and threw to third right away. They'd have to throw from there to third and then back to second, by which time the runner on first would have easily advanced the 45-60 feet he needed to go.

 

It was a bad call. But I wonder what the stats are on the differences in run generation from 2nd and 3rd with two outs and bases loaded with one out. I don't know if the differential is two runs, though I suspect it's easily more than one run, I also suspect it's less than two.

post #25 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

I've never seen an infielder "back off" just because he hears "infield fly rule." They still catch the ball.

 

Some of the "facts" (not really, but they're really difficult to argue IMO) of the matter are:

  1. It wasn't an infield fly. No way, no how. The guy wasn't camped under the ball, it wasn't a "routine" catch, etc. You can have an infield fly in the shallow outfield, that's not the question.
  2. The infield fly rule is designed to protect the offensive team from a player dropping an easy ball in order to get a double-play or get a faster lead runner out (by forcing).
  3. The Cards would not have doubled off two runners from where the ball fell to the ground, even if the left-fielder got it on the hop and threw to third right away. They'd have to throw from there to third and then back to second, by which time the runner on first would have easily advanced the 45-60 feet he needed to go.

 

It was a bad call. But I wonder what the stats are on the differences in run generation from 2nd and 3rd with two outs and bases loaded with one out. I don't know if the differential is two runs, though I suspect it's easily more than one run, I also suspect it's less than two.

Neither have I, but that isn't quite what I meant.  (Probably because they never make the call that late)  To clarify ... I wasn't trying to say he backed off because he heard "Infield fly rule."  I'm saying he backed off because he thought he heard the left fielder calling him off.  As an infielder, there is nothing that would make you jump out of the way of a pop-up like that other than hearing somebody with higher priority yelling "I got it!"  [Pop-up priority order: CF, corner outfielders, SS, 2B, corner infielders, C, P)  So he obviously thought he heard something, and if you only watch the left fielder in the video, you can see that he isn't saying anything.  So what did the SS hear then?  The umpire that made the call was 30 feet away or so, and nobody else was nearby.  I contend that it is very possible that when the umpire yelled "infield fly," the SS thought it was the LF calling him off.

 

Therefore, if it was, in fact, the call itself that caused the ball to fall, then the Braves can't really complain that it was a bad call, because they were better off because of it.  2nd and 3rd with one out, rather than 1st and 2nd with one out.

post #26 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

Therefore, if it was, in fact, the call itself that caused the ball to fall, then the Braves can't really complain that it was a bad call, because they were better off because of it.  2nd and 3rd with one out, rather than 1st and 2nd with one out.

 

That's only true if the guy was guaranteed to catch the ball AND if he backed off because he heard the ump and mistook it for the left-fielder, despite:

a) the fact that the sound was coming from the wrong direction

b) the sound "infield fly!" sounds a lot like "I got it" (it doesn't sound similar to me)

c) the voice sounded similar enough to the left-fielder that he could mistake it

 

I think it's more likely that he SAW the left-fielder and thought he was going to get it. You're speculating that he heard something and backed off. I don't know about you, but I was taught to pursue the ball unless I heard the VERY clear signals (ours were "Mine! Mine! Mine!!!") we'd agreed to.

 

I also think there was a 20% chance he drops the ball even if he doesn't give up on trying to catch it.

 

P.S. Pirates fan here, and **** Sid Bream and Stan Belinda, so I'm not inclined to cut the Braves any slack either. This call sucked, though.

 

P.P.S. It was second and third with two outs, not one out. Infield fly = batter is out and runners advance at their own risk. Baseball stats will tell you first and second with one out beats second and third with two outs, though not by much.

post #27 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

That's only true if the guy was guaranteed to catch the ball AND if he backed off because he heard the ump and mistook it for the left-fielder, despite:

a) the fact that the sound was coming from the wrong direction

b) the sound "infield fly!" sounds a lot like "I got it" (it doesn't sound similar to me)

c) the voice sounded similar enough to the left-fielder that he could mistake it

 

I think it's more likely that he SAW the left-fielder and thought he was going to get it. You're speculating that he heard something and backed off. I don't know about you, but I was taught to pursue the ball unless I heard the VERY clear signals (ours were "Mine! Mine! Mine!!!") we'd agreed to.

 

I also think there was a 20% chance he drops the ball even if he doesn't give up on trying to catch it.

 

P.S. Pirates fan here, and **** Sid Bream and Stan Belinda, so I'm not inclined to cut the Braves any slack either. This call sucked, though.

 

P.P.S. It was second and third with two outs, not one out. Infield fly = batter is out and runners advance at their own risk. Baseball stats will tell you first and second with one out beats second and third with two outs, though not by much.

Watch the video again.

Starts at the :30 sec mark, then again near 2:10 mark.  There is NO WAY he saw the left fielder coming because he was coming from directly behind him.  I have no idea why he jumped but I have watched enough baseball to be able to say that the only times I've ever seen an infielder jump like that are when an outfielder calls them off.  But in the video, the outfielder is not saying anything nor trying AT ALL to get near that ball, yet SOMETHING caused him to jump.  What was it?  If

 

One piece of "evidence" I do not have is video showing when the umpire yelled in relation to when the SS jumped out of the way.  It's pretty clear that the SS jumped BEFORE the umpire pointed his hand in the air, but there is really no way to tell if he yelled simultaneously or prior to that.

 

Regarding your P.P.S. ... my mistake, I thought there were no outs prior to the play.  Regardless, he was right there ... look at his feet at :50 and compare to where the ball lands at :51 - I'd say major league SS will catch that ball minimum 19 out of 20 times.  Besides, I am still "right" in my comparison of 2nd and 3rd vs. 1st and 2nd with the same number of outs because my argument was that play ending in the batter being out either way.

 

EDIT:  Hmmm, I guess my video doesn't work.  OK, here's the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuuCD5IWchs&feature=related

post #28 of 44

The way this call is being discussed is as if it was THIS play that cost the Braves the wild card. IMO, it may or it may have not. There was only 1 out and what's not to say that the next batter could have GIDP? I do agree it was a bad call, but I'm getting tired of news outlets discussing how this call "cost" the Braves the wild card. 

 

In other news, the Giants have the lead in the bottom 9th to force game 5. Go Giants!

post #29 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by RPMPIRE View Post

The way this call is being discussed is as if it was THIS play that cost the Braves the wild card. IMO, it may or it may have not. There was only 1 out and what's not to say that the next batter could have GIDP? I do agree it was a bad call, but I'm getting tired of news outlets discussing how this call "cost" the Braves the wild card. 

 

In other news, the Giants have the lead in the bottom 9th to force game 5. Go Giants!

Well, I certainly ain't one of those people. c2_beer.gif

 

But I agree that even if I could be convinced that the call was that horrible, or that it wasn't the call itself that actually caused the drop, then you are still down 3 with the bases loaded and 1 out.  If I was a betting man, I'd still have all my money on St. Louis at that point.

 

That said, I have embathy for Braves fans who irrationally believe that this call cost them their season.  I am a Padres fan and I will go to the grave "believing" that the blown strike three call on Tino Martinez (1998 world series game 1, 2-2, 2 outs, bases loaded, bottom of the 7th, score tied 5-5) cost them the entire world series.  There is no guarantee that they would even have won that game, and since they got swept, its doubtful they would have won 3 more.  But that still doesn't stop me from arguing that the entire series turned on that one pitch.  Dammit!

 

And don't get me started on the 2007 one-game playoff with the Rockies.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtpUoVxX5j8  That mother-f-er Matt Holliday STILL has not touched home plate!

post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

Regarding your P.P.S. ... my mistake, I thought there were no outs prior to the play.  Regardless, he was right there ... look at his feet at :50 and compare to where the ball lands at :51 - I'd say major league SS will catch that ball minimum 19 out of 20 times.  Besides, I am still "right" in my comparison of 2nd and 3rd vs. 1st and 2nd with the same number of outs because my argument was that play ending in the batter being out either way.

 

I disagree.

 

And your comparison is wrong because you're assuming that the ump yelling is what caused the player to not catch the ball. For all you know a fan yelled something and it confused the player. Without the infield fly rule, it'd be bases loaded and one out. With it, we ended up with second and third and TWO outs. Big difference. Not the same number of outs. You're assuming he'd have caught it. He didn't catch it.

 

Bad call. And even if the player heard "infield fly rule!" that doesn't sound at all like "I got it" or "it's mine" nor is it coming from the right direction in the right voice.

 

You see this happen tens of times in an MLB season - outfielders and infielders just failing to communicate properly, the ball dropping between them. You see it almost as often as players running into each other for the same miscommunication reasons.

post #31 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

I've never seen an infielder "back off" just because he hears "infield fly rule." They still catch the ball.

Some of the "facts" (not really, but they're really difficult to argue IMO) of the matter are:
  1. It wasn't an infield fly. No way, no how. The guy wasn't camped under the ball, it wasn't a "routine" catch, etc. You can have an infield fly in the shallow outfield, that's not the question.
  2. The infield fly rule is designed to protect the offensive team from a player dropping an easy ball in order to get a double-play or get a faster lead runner out (by forcing).
  3. The Cards would not have doubled off two runners from where the ball fell to the ground, even if the left-fielder got it on the hop and threw to third right away. They'd have to throw from there to third and then back to second, by which time the runner on first would have easily advanced the 45-60 feet he needed to go.

It was a bad call. But I wonder what the stats are on the differences in run generation from 2nd and 3rd with two outs and bases loaded with one out. I don't know if the differential is two runs, though I suspect it's easily more than one run, I also suspect it's less than two.

The odds of the braves winning with bases loaded, one out, down 3, in the bottom of the 8th would be about 22%. With 2 out first and third it was about 7.5%.

Not sure if this will work....typing on my phone

The Win Probability Inquirer

The SituationWin ProbabilityRuns/GameInningBasesOutsScore DiffHome TeamVisitorsLI4.00Bottom of the eighthBases loaded1-30.22100.77904.474.00Bottom of the eighthRunners on first and third2-30.07570.92431.78


http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/other/wpa_inquirer.php?view=compare&runs1=4&runs2=4&base1=7&base2=5&inning1=16&inning2=16&outs1=1&outs2=2&score1=-3&score2=-3
post #32 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

I disagree.

 

And your comparison is wrong because you're assuming that the ump yelling is what caused the player to not catch the ball.  You're assuming he'd have caught it.

Yes, that was my hypothesis, and the only reason I posted the original post that you commented on.  I am SPECULATING that the ump is what caused it, and have no proof admittedly.  It's just my hunch.  And, I am speculating that he would have caught it.  Can't prove that either.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

Bad call. And even if the player heard "infield fly rule!" that doesn't sound at all like "I got it" or "it's mine" nor is it coming from the right direction in the right voice.

 

You see this happen tens of times in an MLB season - outfielders and infielders just failing to communicate properly, the ball dropping between them. You see it almost as often as players running into each other for the same miscommunication reasons.

You said it yourself in a previous post:

 

I don't know about you, but I was taught to pursue the ball unless I heard the VERY clear signals (ours were "Mine! Mine! Mine!!!") we'd agreed to.

 

From the video, its pretty clear that A) The left fielder wasn't talking, and B) the SS wasn't looking.  SOMETHING caused him to back off and I am speculating that it was the call.

 

And regarding your argument that he couldn't possibly mistake the umpire's voice yelling "infield fly" for Matt Hollidays voice yelling "I got it," ... do you recall the game a couple of years ago (Couldn't locate a video on youtube of the play, but found this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iErO9MZclDc ) where A-Rod caused a Blue Jays 3B to back off a pop-up?  Certainly A-Rod yelling "ha" from in front of him sounds nothing like his SS yelling "I got it" from behind but yet it worked.  Why?  Same reason as here ... its a yell coming from close by that you are half expecting/ready for and you don't have enough time to digest the actual voice or words.  Besides, there is no need to recognize the voice.  No player except A-Rod is dickish enough to even try that, and no umpire ever yells anything in the middle of a pop-up except for infield fly rule, and that is usually much earlier on so you can digest the actual words.

 

post #33 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post


 SOMETHING caused him to back off and I am speculating that it was the call.
[

he probably heard footsteps.
post #34 of 44

I've never had the chance to watch the bash brothers of Oakland. I'm only 26, but what I saw last night in Oakland was unbelievable, the bottom of the 9 th seem to happen so quick but I couldn't believe what I was watching. The A's wanted it so bad you could just see it. Anyhow it's a new day and Game 5 will be the hardest game yet, Just Verlander is on the mound that means runs will be at a premium, I've got my fingers crossed for a A's a win.

post #35 of 44

How about Girardi pulling one of the best home run hitters in the history of the game, in the bottom of the 9th, only to have Raul Ibanez hit the game tying and game winning home runs?

post #36 of 44

Great performance by both Bay Area teams. I think the A's have a tough game ahead of them going up against Verlander. The Giants have Cain on the mound so hopefully he pitches as well as he did earlier in the season. He hasn't pitched that well in the later half.  Hope to see another Bay Bridge series. 

 

I just saw the highlights of the Yankees game but that was a bold move by Girardi, but it paid off. Still don't like the Yankees though. 

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