depends on the rain, soften the course with a couple of T-storms and you will see -15 maybe lower. if it is hard and fast you will see -6 to -8 for the winner...maybe lower. There are 6 or so holes that they are going to be hitting iron/wedge in and that is the entire field not a few guys, on another couple that are going to be fairway wood / wedge...i know the fairways will be be very tight and fast that will help - if it stays hard. You get one or two nasty T-storms or a couple of days of rain in the area and the course is going to take a beating.
Bottom line this is going to be a different US Open. it is just my opinion of course you can disagree...that is why we have betting!!! of course mine is an educated opinion from having been there and spoken with several local pro's who know the place very well - for what that is worth.
Oh I totally understand. I also talked to some members an a friend who works there. Accuracy is key. The rough there is absolutely insane. Dont get me wrong, TW always stands a chance no matter how good/bad/injured he is. I too like someone else stated think his best chance is at the British this year. I actually find a guy like Gmac or even Webb to win this.