Originally Posted by saevel25
If Oregon wins out, they will have a better schedule than FSU, and will jump back over them.
They already have. Yesterday's BCS standings have Oregon at number 2 and FSU at 3. Oregon's remaining schedule has #5 Stanford, a solid, just outside the Top 25, Oregon State, and then the Pac-12 Championship Game. Best case scenario for Oregon is that it's UCLA who won out the rest of their regular season and would be ranked in the top 10.
FSU has quite a similar remaining schedule. #7 Miami next, 3 games of fluff, and then solid, but unranked, Florida to close the season. If Miami wins out (except this weekend) then they get to play them again (while they are likely ranked in the top 10 as well) for the ACC championship game.
One advantage that FSU may have is that they have an extra game still to play. If it comes down to fractions of a point, who knows, a 70-10 win over Idaho might tip the scales. ;)
But with Oregon already comfortable in second, it seems like if they both win out, chances are pretty slim that they trade places.
Originally Posted by David in FL
Maybe. Maybe not.....
Unless you are planning on Oregon dropping because they lose a game? I'd say that the possibility of that is quite high. If I was a betting person, I'd put my money on Alabama/FSU. My next pick would be Alabama/OSU.
Side note: I'm no expert on the BCS calcs, but if my some crazy miracle, Baylor wins out, then they could jump up pretty quickly and perhaps even pass OSU, based on their remaining schedule. However, because of that schedule and the fact that they've played nobody so far, I suspect that they are going to have a rude awakening here over the next couple of weeks.
Nobody is really giving them much chance - and rightfully so after they almost lost this weekend to Wake Forest - but Miami has a good chance to jump up pretty high if they win out, considering that would include two wins over top 10 FSU. ;)
I'm more interested in my FSU winning out and then, likely, snagging a non-AQ BCS bowl bid. They are currently at 16th in the BCS standings and that is probably about where they belong. Based on the upcoming schedules of the teams immediately preceding them, a few of those are likely to lose, and that is their only chance at moving up, because their own schedule is weak. If they can get to 12th in the BCS standings, then its guaranteed that they'll get a bid, but that is unlikely. What is likely, though, is that they remain in the top 16 and remain ahead of a champion of an AQ conference, which is the other qualifying chance for us little people. The frontrunners for the AAC championship are all well below them, so that chance is high. Time to take care of business, guys!!