Sherpat's advise is excellent.
Overthinking and negative thoughts are killers in the game of golf. The mind can really screw with you.
The which club to pick thing you mention. You should develop over time, if you have not already, an idea of how far you hit all your clubs. Be realistic to your self. Just because you may have hit a 190 yard 8 iron one time does not mean that is your yardage for an 8 iron. Some people develop charts for each club's distance, others (like me) just know them from playing for so many years.
If the wind is in your face, go up a club. If wind is behind you, maybe take off 1 club if it is really strong.
If the shot is uphill, you might want to add a club. Wind in your face and uphill, add 2.
Don't over think it. Just pull the club and hit the best shot you can. If you hit a really good shot but it came up short...you have an idea of the situation that caused that...learn from it.
Get some lessons. Get someone to film your swing, facing you and from behind. Hard to see in the video where the ball went so make some gestures so you will know which swing produced what sort of ball flight (good or bad, right or left, etc).
Welcome to golf. Enjoy the game.