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Inconsistency- the key to PGA Tour success

post #1 of 10
Thread Starter 

I mean inconsistent in a good way like following a missed cut with a win as opposed to back to back top 10s. 

 

Compare Derek Ernst to Carl Pettersson

 

Player Derek Ernst Carl Pettersson
Tournaments 21 24
Scoring Ave 72.27 71.27
Made Cuts 7 19
Missed Cuts 14 5
Top 25s 1 3
Top 10s 1 1
Wins 1 0
Money  $          1,330,856  $            738,143
Fed Ex 93rd 113th

 

or compare Jonas Blixt with Luke Donald

 

Player Jonas Blixt Luke Donald
Tournaments 23 15
Scoring Ave 71.05 69.93
Made Cuts 14 12
Missed Cuts 9 3
Top 25s 4 9
Top 10s 2 4
Wins 1 0
Money  $          2,008,264  $        1,457,246
Fed Ex 29th 55th

 

 

Do you think it is a good or bad thing that Q School, which rewarded consistency by having to get through multiple stages on different golf course, has been replaced by the Web.com Tour Finals where a player can earn his PGA Tour card with 1 good performance out of 4 events?

 

John Peterson was 28 under for the first two events with a t5 and t3, but trails Will Mackenzie, Trevor Immelman and Andrew Svoboda, all of whom had 1 good finish and one missed cut. 

 

Player Will Mackenzie John Peterson Immelman
Week 1 -2, cut -17, t5 -20, 1st
Week 2 -12, 2nd -11, t3 +1, cut
Priority Rank 4th 6th 1st
post #2 of 10

I'm not sure those are great comparisons. One would think Luke would be ahead of Blixt in the fed ex and money standings if he'd played in EIGHT more tournaments. He'd also have raised his chances at getting that 1 win. 

post #3 of 10
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slice of Life View Post
 

I'm not sure those are great comparisons. One would think Luke would be ahead of Blixt in the fed ex and money standings if he'd played in EIGHT more tournaments. He'd also have raised his chances at getting that 1 win. 

 

ok, then how about this comparison instead

 

Player McDowell Luke Donald
Tournaments 15 15
Scoring Ave 70.31 69.93
Made Cuts 10 12
Missed Cuts 5 3
Top 25s 5 9
Top 10s 4 4
Wins 1 0
Money  $          2,156,595  $        1,457,246
Fed Ex 28th 55th
post #4 of 10
The money is set up so that first place is MUCH better than second place, but something like 35th place isn't that much better than 36th. They want to value winning, and rightfully so, I think.

We've had threads in the past where people have argued that winning should be valued even more highly.
post #5 of 10
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamo View Post

The money is set up so that first place is MUCH better than second place, but something like 35th place isn't that much better than 36th. They want to value winning, and rightfully so, I think.

We've had threads in the past where people have argued that winning should be valued even more highly.

 

I agree that winning should be valued.  Looking specifically at the Web.com finals, it appears that a guy with 1 solo 2nd and 3 missed cuts will finish ahead of a guy who finishes tied 8th in all 4 events.  My guess is that the more consistent guy is actually more likely to go out and play well on the PGA Tour in 2014 (although I think Patrick Cantlay, who has a solo 2nd and a DNS is likely to have a good career as long as his back holds out).

post #6 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by MEfree View Post
 

 

ok, then how about this comparison instead

 

Player McDowell Luke Donald
Tournaments 15 15
Scoring Ave 70.31 69.93
Made Cuts 10 12
Missed Cuts 5 3
Top 25s 5 9
Top 10s 4 4
Wins 1 0
Money  $          2,156,595  $        1,457,246
Fed Ex 28th 55th

 

That's better. But Graeme has had such a weird year. Either feast or famine. Seems like he's playing Ricky Bobby golf, if you're not first, you're last.

post #7 of 10

I think to keep the tour card it's better to be consistent. If a player makes a lot of cuts and finishs a few times in the top 10 or top 20, he will probably keep his card for a long time without much problems (see Carl Petterson). And such seasons are relatively easy to repeat. But the player who misses half of the cuts and only gets one good finish all season (like a top3) will in the long run have a lot more problems to secure his card (see Derek Ernst).

 

For the top players, it's a bit different, because they will likely keep their cards either way, consistent or not.

post #8 of 10
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zwick View Post
 

I think to keep the tour card it's better to be consistent. If a player makes a lot of cuts and finishs a few times in the top 10 or top 20, he will probably keep his card for a long time without much problems (see Carl Petterson). And such seasons are relatively easy to repeat. But the player who misses half of the cuts and only gets one good finish all season (like a top3) will in the long run have a lot more problems to secure his card (see Derek Ernst).

 

For the top players, it's a bit different, because they will likely keep their cards either way, consistent or not.

 

I agree with you in the long run but on a year to year basis, having a single top 2 or 3 finish is a pretty good predictor of keeping your card.  

 

With the new structure of the Web.com Tour Final series, the guy with one top 2 or 3 and 3 missed is more likely to earn a card than a guy who makes 4 cuts but doesn't have a top 10 finish- I doubt 4 top 25s is any guarantee of getting one of the 50 cards.  

post #9 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by MEfree View Post
 

I agree with you in the long run but on a year to year basis, having a single top 2 or 3 finish is a pretty good predictor of keeping your card.  

 

With the new structure of the Web.com Tour Final series, the guy with one top 2 or 3 and 3 missed is more likely to earn a card than a guy who makes 4 cuts but doesn't have a top 10 finish- I doubt 4 top 25s is any guarantee of getting one of the 50 cards.  

 

Good.

post #10 of 10
Thread Starter 

Tyronne Van Aswegen, currently #19 on Tour Finals Priority Ranking with 1 made cut in 3 events (4 rounds of 73 or worse)

Bold = scores par or better

*=Unofficial Event
9/01/13 Hotel Fitness Championship CUT 72 70 -- -- -- 142 -2 --
9/08/13 Chiquita Classic CUT 73 77 -- -- -- 150 +6 --
9/15/13 Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship T4 65 73 68 73 -- 279 -5 $41,333.33
EVENTS
PLAYED
FINISH OFFICIAL MONEY
TOTAL
1ST 2ND 3RD TOP 10 TOP 25 MADE CUT CUT WD
24 -- -- -- 3 8 12 12 -- $137,511

 

compared to Chad Collins,currently #21 with 3 made cuts in 3 events (all rounds 72 or less)

Bold = scores par or better

*=Unofficial Event
9/01/13 Hotel Fitness Championship T60 71 70 71 71 -- 283 -5 $2,900.00
9/08/13 Chiquita Classic T24 71 70 72 71 -- 284 -4 $8,700.00
9/15/13 Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship T7 69 72 68 71 -- 280 -4 $27,071.43
EVENTS
PLAYED
FINISH OFFICIAL MONEY
TOTAL
1ST 2ND 3RD TOP 10 TOP 25 MADE CUT CUT WD
23 -- -- 3 4 8 15 8 -- $168,294
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