Ball moved and should have been a penalty.
I don't think Tiger thought it moved. I do not think he was thinking he'd get away with cheating. If he thought it had moved, he'd have taken the one stroke and not risked his integrity and an additional stroke. I think is he is aware that every move he makes is being watched.
At what point do outside pictures and videos reviewed after a round stop influencing the game? IMO, there is tremendous inconsistency here when some pros have every move on video and others don't and all the video is used to check for correct rules and scoring. YET, a player must keep track of his own score and sign his scorecard even though officials are watching every shot. No pro would ever get away with posting a lower-than-shot score without everyone noticing. You think Jim F. could have posted a 58 without anyone noticing his error? So why make them track their own scores? When do we get officials following every pro and making determinations in real time? Lord knows the tour can afford it. And, this every-shot scrutiny seems to be happening with some players now. But it is fans instead of officials capturing every move and then delayed calls to the PGA to determine penalties. In high school tennis, you call your own line calls. By the time you get to the pros, lines-people and even net sensors make the calls -- not the players. Why do pro golfers have to call their own "lines?"
I love the concept that I call my own penalties when I do something wrong. That is part of the beauty of the game. Much as playing tennis requires both players to make fair line calls. But, when I play golf, if I do not think a ball moved, it didn't move. It is my call. But, I am not playing on the PGA tour.