So let's say you get on or near the green. 50/50 chance of a birdie, 50/50 chance of a par. Let's leave eagles out of it to keep things simple. So that's a scoring average of 3.5 shots from 210 out.
Let's say you dunk it in the water, but they're laterals, so you're now near the green. You have a 50/50 shot of getting up and down (they're not particularly long shots, and there's little elevation change if I'm seeing this correctly). So going in the water gives you a scoring average of 4.5 from there.
Thus, if you're more than 50% likely to stay dry, you go for it. And since there's more room short, maybe you "go for it" but plan to be on the front of the green - you don't try to hit a shot that can go long, because it can also go long and left or long and right.
Exactly! I said it this morning but I am starting to feel that the "black" option is the right play. After two years of playing this hole it finally dawned on me. This hole screams for you to lay up or try to play safe, and when you do it can ruin your day. I have played the "yellow" option so many times over the last two years. I make a ton of pars, but my scoring average is higher than five. Yeah it is a 100 yard shot but probably the hardest 100 shot on the course. If you hit it well your usually will two putt for par, if not you are dropping and hitting 5 onto the green with a must make U&D for bogey. I used to play the red as well, but I just don't like it very much either. Yes you will make a birdie more often than you will with the yellow option but, as a righty if I push it like I did this morning slightly it becomes very risky. All of a sudden you are dropping way back and have a very long fourth shot. The safest shot in some ways, I am now starting to understand is to go for it. There is virtually no chance I will risk leaving it short of the first part of the hazard and I will probably be safe a decent percentage of the time. The rest of the time, I have a drop, a short pitch and two putts for the worst case scenario of bogey or and U&D for par. This hole makes you fear the water more than you should.