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Posting most likely score in match play competition

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 

In my match yesterday, I had 3 putts conceded to me that were about 5-6 feet in length. My make percentage from that length (rough guesstimate) is about 65%-70%. As such, my most likely outcome by far would be to make 2 of those 3 putts on any given day. But my most likely score on any given hole would be for a one-putt.

 

How would you handle that for posting purposes? Are you able to post the most likely outcome, or do I have to consider the outcome hole by hole and give myself all 3 putts?

post #2 of 35
I'd do it like this.

On the first hole, you're most likely to make it.
On the second hole, you're most likely to make it.
On the third hole, you're due to miss one, so I'd count it as a two-putt.

In other words, I try to keep the scoring accurate, but I start off with the makes and then get into the misses. That way if you play five holes, you count four makes (make, make, miss, make, make) and you aren't sandbagging relative to your actual abilities.

Of course, if they're all really easy five footers, one could argue that you're most likely to have made them all. If they're all tricky five footers, with a foot of break and a sensitive speed, then you might be justified in thinking you're most likely to miss two or even all three of them.
post #3 of 35
Thread Starter 

Thanks,

 

That makes sense, and that is how I posted it yesterday. One was a tricky putt off a sides-slope. The other two were fairly straightforward. I'll generally error on the conservative side when posting for our men's club, but giving myself all 3 didn't quite strike me as correct.

post #4 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big C View Post
 

Thanks,

 

That makes sense, and that is how I posted it yesterday. One was a tricky putt off a sides-slope. The other two were fairly straightforward. I'll generally error on the conservative side when posting for our men's club, but giving myself all 3 didn't quite strike me as correct.

 

Also still have the option of putting out and recording the actual score, as long as you don't just slap at them.

post #5 of 35

You can putt out holes in a match for score postings once the opponent has conceded the hole.

When an opponent concedes the hole, you have an option to pick up your ball or play the hole out.

 

Or, you can declare an obvious two putt under many circumstances and write down the score as such. Sometimes an opponent may challenge your decision, if it becomes apparent your pushing the three footer margin to post a higher tournament score.

 

If you feel you have a very good chance of making the putt, then pick it up.

If you elect to putt out and miss the putt, this can mess with your head the next time you need to make that three footer.

 

I sometimes make an opponent putt out a tricky slider, just to mess with his head and place that little bit of doubt in their mind simply for the reason of when they may need to make a short putt to win a hole or match.

 

I have found the opposite approach works as well when you concede a couple of short putts early in the round and then when they need to make a crucial putt later in the match, they may lack the confidence because the have not had to make them earlier in the day.

 

If you play Nassau's against your friends on a regular basis with strategies of when to press the bet, then the three footers generally become more important and play a bigger role when the big bucks are on the line.

 

A friendly Nassau Game will make a better "Match" player out of many golfers.

Even if it's just a "Beer" on the line !!!!!!

 

Club Rat

post #6 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Club Rat View Post
 

You can putt out holes in a match for score postings once the opponent has conceded the hole.

When an opponent concedes the hole, you have an option to pick up your ball or play the hole out.

 

Or, you can declare an obvious two putt under many circumstances and write down the score as such. Sometimes an opponent may challenge your decision, if it becomes apparent your pushing the three footer margin to post a higher tournament score.

 

 

If your opponent has won, lost or conceded the hole, he has no say in what you do or don't do, either on the green or in returning a score.

post #7 of 35

True, but it could be noted that if a player is padding a score, it could be reported to the handicap committee of the circumstances.

If this player continues this type of behavior in several matches and it becomes apparently obvious of their intentions, they will certainly be under scrutiny by opposing players and their peers. If this behavior is then noted by several players and reported to the handicap committee of reoccurring intentions by a player, the handicap committee could and should assess a penalty score or scores to this players Ghin.

 

Club Rat

post #8 of 35
Quote:

Originally Posted by Big C View Post

 

...My make percentage from that length (rough guesstimate) is about 65%-70%. As such, my most likely outcome by far would be to make 2 of those 3 putts on any given day. But my most likely score on any given hole would be for a one-putt.

 

How would you handle that for posting purposes? Are you able to post the most likely outcome, or do I have to consider the outcome hole by hole and give myself all 3 putts?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

I'd do it like this.

On the first hole, you're most likely to make it.
On the second hole, you're most likely to make it.
On the third hole, you're due to miss one, so I'd count it as a two-putt.

 

This brings up something I've always been confused about with respect to statistics. Intuitively, I agree that overall the likelihood is that one of the three putts will be missed. But from what little I remember about stats, previous results have no bearing on the next. If that's true, and if the likelihood of each putt taken on its own is > 50%, then shouldn't all 3 be one-putts? I know I'm missing something but not sure what...

post #9 of 35
Individually yes. But it's a performance standard, not pure chance.

You can flip a coin heads 10 times in a row and the next will be 50/50. Performance tends to revert to the mean.
post #10 of 35

Not to be overly analytical, but it is true that the odds for one event with two possible random outcomes is 50/50.  Flip a coin 99 times and the odds of the 100th is still 50/50.  But when you combine the odds of multiple occurrences it changes.

 

If you assume a truly random putter the odds of holing two of two putts is 25%.  It's 50% to hole one and 25% to hole neither.

 

If you go to three it becomes 12.5% for all three, 37.5% for 2, 37.5% for 1, and 12.5% for none.

 

Off course, this assumes no three putts and who never three putts from five feet.

 

 

steve

post #11 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

Individually yes. But it's a performance standard, not pure chance.

You can flip a coin heads 10 times in a row and the next will be 50/50. Performance tends to revert to the mean.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by priebesj View Post
 

Not to be overly analytical, but it is true that the odds for one event with two possible random outcomes is 50/50.  Flip a coin 99 times and the odds of the 100th is still 50/50.  But when you combine the odds of multiple occurrences it changes.

 

If you assume a truly random putter the odds of holing two of two putts is 25%.  It's 50% to hole one and 25% to hole neither.

 

If you go to three it becomes 12.5% for all three, 37.5% for 2, 37.5% for 1, and 12.5% for none.

 

Off course, this assumes no three putts and who never three putts from five feet.

 

 

steve

 

Yep, I get that the odds of holing 3 putts in a row, if each has a 50% chance of going in, is (0.5)3. I've just never understood how to differentiate when you'd use the combined odds from when you'd use the single occurrence odds. In the OP's case for example, the odds of each individual putt is > 50%, so it seems to me that, just as in your flipping a coin 99 times, no matter how many putts he might've missed or made before a certain point, the likelihood that he would make any given putt is > 50%

 

Or to put it another way: If the OP should be using the cumulative method, then it seems that one of the first two putts should be counted as a miss (instead of waiting till the 3rd, as Erik suggested), since the odds of making even 2 putts is (0.7)2, or less than 50%.

 

What if the odds of each individual conceded putt varied? (In the OP's example he estimated them all to be pretty much the same, but they certainly wouldn't always be.) How would one determine which putts to consider made and which ones to consider missed, other than by using each putt's individual likelihood?

 

(All the above prob sounds goofy to those of you who understand statistics - I guess my brain just isn't wired for that.)

post #12 of 35

The way the rule reads it seems pretty clear that this is to be a hole by hole determination, not a cumulative determination.  You are to post your most likely score on the hole.  Nowhere does it allow you to combine different situations and posting some kind of weighted average.  So unless one can argue that the fact that he has made it on the first 2 attempts makes it LESS likely that he would make it the third time (which goes against the whole idea of building confidence making it more likely to make, rather than miss), i.e., that you can treat these as non-independent events, you have to score it as if the putt was holed.

 

Do I like that result?  Not particularly.  Which is why I still go ahead and putt out for posting purposes unless the putt is one I know I make over 80-90% of the time (you know, a 6-incher, lol).  But if you don't putt it out I don't see where the rule gives you the kind of wiggle room to use some kind of cumulative average as some are arguing for.

 

Quote:
 

4-1. Unfinished Holes and Conceded Strokes

A player who starts, but does not complete a hole or is conceded a stroke must record for handicap purposes the most likely score. The most likely score may not exceed the player's Equitable Stroke Control limit, defined in Section 4-3. This most likely score should be preceded by an "X." (See Decision 4-1/1.)

 

4-1/1. Explanation of "Most Likely Score" for Holes Not Completed

Q: Section 4, adjusting hole scores, says that a player who starts but does not complete a hole records for handicap purposes the "most likely score." This score must not exceed the player's maximum number under Equitable Stroke Control. Clarify the meaning of most likely score.

A: Most likely score is a judgment that each player must make based on the player's own game. It consists of the number of strokes already taken plus, in the player's best judgment, the number of strokes needed to complete the hole from that position more than half the time. The player must evaluate each situation based on what the player can reasonably expect to score. 

Finally, the player compares the most likely score to the maximum permitted under Equitable Stroke Control and enters the lower of the two. For example, if most likely score is 8 but the applicable ESC maximum is 7, the player enters a score, for handicap purposes, of X-7.

post #13 of 35

Wow, am I glad to play in the EGA handicap system! No need to do higher maths 3 hours in a row after a round of golf...

post #14 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignorant View Post

Wow, am I glad to play in the EGA handicap system! No need to do higher maths 3 hours in a row after a round of golf...

I didn't realize the EGA differed in this respect. In match play, what score do you post for a hole when you're conceded a putt, or pick up having already lost the hole?
post #15 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by David in FL View Post


I didn't realize the EGA differed in this respect. In match play, what score do you post for a hole when you're conceded a putt, or pick up having already lost the hole?

 

Match play scores are not accepted at all, only stroke play.

post #16 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignorant View Post

Match play scores are not accepted at all, only stroke play.

Nor stableford?

Interesting. Thanks. How many scores so you tend to actually post in a full year? Can't be many, is it?
post #17 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by David in FL View Post


Nor stableford?

Interesting. Thanks. How many scores so you tend to actually post in a full year? Can't be many, is it?


Stableford is a form of stroke play.

 

From EGA MANUAL:

 

the form of play is either stroke play, Bogey/Par or Stableford, provided that Bogey/Par and
Stableford are played with full handicap allowance (= 100% x playing handicap).

 

Any number of scores but minimum 4 in order to maintain an active handicap.

post #18 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignorant View Post


Stableford is a form of stroke play.

From EGA MANUAL:

the form of play is either stroke play, Bogey/Par or Stableford, provided that Bogey/Par and

Stableford are played with full handicap allowance (= 100% x playing handicap).


Any number of scores but minimum 4 in order to maintain an active handicap.

So you won't pick up after 0 points in a stableford match? Most proponents of stableford (I like the format too) cite the ability to pick up as a benefit in combatting slow pace of play.

I'm just curious though.....in your estimation, given the popularity of both stableford and match play, how many rounds does the average golfer playing under EGA rules post in a year? Maybe the better question, is what percentage of their rounds are actually posted?
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