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Here it is October 2013. Who thinks the Economy is getting better and who thinks it is getting...

Poll Results: Is it getting better?

 
  • 31% (6)
    Yes, I think it is starting to see some light
  • 10% (2)
    Maybe, and in my personal experience it is getting better
  • 15% (3)
    Maybe, but there is still a long slog yet
  • 42% (8)
    No, double dip. Time for a change.
19 Total Votes  
post #1 of 23
Thread Starter 

This topic has been brought up before in other threads, but deserves a separate current state thread.

 

The Fed just extended the stimulus plan, citing they expect a longer haul.

 

Obama is saying things are better, what makes him sure this is the case? His approval ratings are currently at 42%, his lowest ever.

 

Real Estate is stagnating due to lack of supply, and high housing prices. Only 25% of the people locally in CA can afford to own a home.

 

Employment is marginally better than this time last year.

 

What does that mean to the average person?

 

What are we waiting for to improve?

post #2 of 23

I always find this question interesting - and you see it being polled by the news stations.  But I think it is actually quantifiable.  Never sure why what people think about it matters as much as the actual numbers.

 

I think the problem began long ago.  In my entire lifetime, the economy has been propped up by deficit spending.  I've never known an economy that wasn't fake.  Now we're at $17T in debt and we don't know how to live off of the economy in its native state.  Furthering the problem, if we were to start paying the debt off - we would actually take money out of it. How does that feel?  Not sure.

 

The good news is (and this is from the school of lowered expectations), our deficit was only $700B this year.  That doesn't sound good, but it is way down from the years before (1.1T, 1.3T, 1.3T, 1.4T, etc) and things weren't brutally bad this year.  I think it gives hope that we might actually be able to balance the budget without causing another recession.  

 

I'm not sure of it obviously.  Things weren't stellar this year despite the extra $700B.  But I can hope.

post #3 of 23

The economy has to crash completely before it gets better.  Even when it gets better it won't appear to be as good as many of us remember it to be in the past.

 

Bush / Obama have kept the economy on life support since the mortgage debacle by printing money and bailing out banks and businesses at the expense of the deficit and our future.  There are still a huge number of bad mortgages on the books that the banks and government are trying to figure out what to do with. 

 

While this mess exists, Obama is attempting to socialize healthcare with the ACA which will ultimately have to convert into a tax since it's the only way to ensure it's fully funded.  It will be an easy transition since it's already being managed within the IRS.  The net result will be higher taxes for all but the very poor, less full-time jobs and the continued decline of the dollar.    

 

At some point there will be an adjustment to the value of the US dollar world wide and when that happens we will likely see a major recession / depression that will change the world economy and may change the US position in the global economy.

 

These are not my predictions (but I do agree with their conclusions), they come from the same people that predicted the mortgage / financial collapse before it occurred - David Wiedemer, Robert Wiedemer and Cindy Spitzer in the book Aftershock

post #4 of 23

I have 4 distribution warehouses that i run, all items being shipped in from China, being sent to all the retail stores. The first 3Q's have been very hard on us to be honest margins are down still. Suppliers are being for a better word raped by the retail stores, so being in distribution we also take a hit on our margins to keep the customers.  There are a lot of distribution centers that will cut the rate just to fill there floors at this time, they feel something coming in is better then nothing but thank god we are full.

 

With that said 4Q normally has been a saving grace historically, but we are still not up to the volume we have had in the past at this time.  With Black Friday around the corner we should be starting to ship full force to the retailers DC's in order to get the merchandise in the store that has not happened yet. One thing I can say is the B to C (business to consumer) and .Com orders are way up this year already. I assume the way of the times, most people just order off web sites, free shipping better deals.

 

So by judging on what we are shipping and the volume I would say we are not out of the economy slump yet. Consumer buying and confidence says a lot to what we do.

post #5 of 23

The ACA is about to kick a LOT of people in the teeth come January.  It's gonna worse before it gets any better.

 

For those that think that the employment numbers are looking up, it's worth reminding everyone of something that the media has completely ignored (no surprise there)......that because of sequestration, federal unemployment benefits were significantly reduced, meaning that tens of thousands of people lost their benefits and were subsequently dropped from the unemployment roles.  They're not working......they're just not counted as unemployed because they're no longer receiving benefits.

post #6 of 23

I think it will stumble along until we have certainty -- that the US will not default, that the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting, and that the parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably

post #7 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Desmond View Post
 

I think it will stumble along until we have certainty -- that

the US will not default, that the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting, and that the parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably

 

US will not default - do you really think that this has been a major hold up of our economy?

 

That the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting - do you really think that those politicians are what's holding up our economy?

 

The parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably - that sounds great, but what does it mean? what can they compromise on that fixes the economy?  And what if they agree on the wrong idea?  I'm not sure compromise alone fixes an economy.  I don't know what does, but I haven't heard this before.

post #8 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker101 View Post
 

I have 4 distribution warehouses that i run, all items being shipped in from China, being sent to all the retail stores... Consumer buying and confidence says a lot to what we do.

The economic situation for the average Joe cannot and will not improve until we produce ALL our own energy, and nearly all our own products.

 

Consumers cannot consume unless they have productive work and reasonable fuel and energy prices.

 

Global economy be damned! :pound:

post #9 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meltdwhiskey View Post
 

 

US will not default - do you really think that this has been a major hold up of our economy?

 

That the crazy uncles of the tea party will have less influence over voting - do you really think that those politicians are what's holding up our economy?

 

The parties can compromise and agree, i.e., govern reasonably - that sounds great, but what does it mean? what can they compromise on that fixes the economy?  And what if they agree on the wrong idea?  I'm not sure compromise alone fixes an economy.  I don't know what does, but I haven't heard this before.

None of this has an impact on the economy, it's just Obama rhetoric and excuses for why he's been ineffective in improving the economy.  His solution has been to print more money and make the government bigger and more powerful.

 

Everyone forgets that the debt ceiling and potential for government shutdown was strategically negotiated by Obama and the Republicans.  It was put in place to ensure all sides had skin in the game to make critical cuts to the budget.   Obama doesn't want to hold up his end of the deal so he paints the Tea Party as extremists, blames them exclusively for the shutdown so he can continue to move us towards more government provided services and higher taxes.

 

In the meantime, small businesses are being choked by higher taxes, higher healthcare costs and those that have survived have responded by cutting staff and hiring part time staff to replace full time to avoid paying benefits.

post #10 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtogolf View Post

Everyone forgets that the debt ceiling and potential for government shutdown was strategically negotiated by Obama and the Republicans.  It was put in place to ensure all sides had skin in the game to make critical cuts to the budget.   Obama doesn't want to hold up his end of the deal so he paints the Tea Party as extremists, blames them exclusively for the shutdown so he can continue to move us towards more government provided services and higher taxes.

I think you're thinking of the sequester. That was a law enacted in 2011 stipulating across-the-board cuts in 2013 if more nuanced cuts weren't made.

No one put the debt ceiling into place, at least not recently. They just vote to raise it every so often.
post #11 of 23

Have fun, guys.

 

I like solutions.

 

the tea people have held things up, lowered our debt rating, and caused the Pubs not to act on needed legislation.

 

We could have had entitlement reform, immigration, budget cuts and tax solutions ... already.

 

But when  you have a small minority and a leadership who is too afraid of the extreme right wing and their wealthy benefactors (see Koch Brothers), afraid they  won't be re-elected because of this right wing money, then nothing gets done.

 

And that's not to mention the fact that the Pubs block Obama nominations ad nauseum not filling key administration and judicial posts, not because the candidates are not qualified, but because they are Democrats. If the Dems had acted that way, Clarence Thomas, the court's jester, would not have been confirmed.

 

It's just the way it  is. If the Pubs can't control everything, they cry and stall.

 

I expect filibuster rules to change as the Pubs get even less cooperative.

 

Reasonable Pubs can work with Obama... but these are unreasonable times.

 

Enjoy your debate.


Edited by Mr. Desmond - 10/31/13 at 9:01pm
post #12 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lihu View Post
 

This topic has been brought up before in other threads, but deserves a separate current state thread.

 

What does that mean to the average person?

The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes median household income data

2008    $53,644

2009    $53,285

2010    $51,892

2011    $51,100

2012    $51,017

 

If these statistics have any credibility, you would have to say that Americans, on average, have less money to spend. Considering that food and other consumer prices continue to increase, it seems as if the economy is still pretty depressed.

post #13 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by dfreuter415 View Post
 

The U.S. Census Bureau currently publishes median household income data

2008    $53,644

2009    $53,285

2010    $51,892

2011    $51,100

2012    $51,017

 

If these statistics have any credibility, you would have to say that Americans, on average, have less money to spend. Considering that food and other consumer prices continue to increase, it seems as if the economy is still pretty depressed.

Which if you factor in inflation equates to $46,527, or $7117 less buying power today compared to 2008.

post #14 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by CR McDivot View Post
 

The economic situation for the average Joe cannot and will not improve until we produce ALL our own energy, and nearly all our own products.

 

Consumers cannot consume unless they have productive work and reasonable fuel and energy prices.

 

Global economy be damned! :pound:

 

It is not all about fuel and productive work, this can be an easy fix.

 

1. Able to drill in the Antarctic for oil this would stop our dependence on other country’s oil.

 

2. Putting a tax in place for inbound products from other countries, they tax the crap out of us for shipping products to them so why not tax them. Make it so it is to expensive to import. But the Gov. will not do this because of big corporations that have gone overseas to produce at a cheap price for cheap goods. And we need there money here in the US.

3. China manufacture is now figuring out how to market their own goods here, buying up stores and using a co-op of many manufactures to fund it.  What this will do is cut the American suppler out or make it so they can no longer compete with the factory that makes their goods since they now make it for themselves, and market in the US. Many of the college grads from China are in marketing, why so they can figure out how to market for the China factory’s. There only real issue they are having is how to sell their goods under a name that we will not know is not American and how to set up a foreign corporation.

 

My company has people in the factory’s so if you think any of this is not true just wait and see,  it is coming  to a store near you.  And wait and see what this will do to our economy when it does.

post #15 of 23

Id say things are getting better because unemployment claims are going down and car sales are up.  If people arent working and have no money, they arent buying cars.  To those of you who are saying that we need to start taxing the heck out of foreign products and start making things here again, that sounds great and it wins elections buts its not a reality of the world we now live in.

post #16 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lihu View Post

 

Real Estate is stagnating due to lack of supply, and high housing prices. Only 25% of the people locally in CA can afford to own a home.

 

Employment is marginally better than this time last year.

 

What does that mean to the average person?

 

What are we waiting for to improve?

 

Yeah investing in California real estate is tough right now.  Got to look elsewhere, the Phoenix area is going through somewhat of a boom and have been seeing price spikes as much as 30-35% in the last two years.

 

Three days ago the Dow Jones closed at a record high thanks to expectations that the Fed will maintain its $85 billion worth of bond purchases every month.

 

post #17 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by hacker101 View Post
 

 

It is not all about fuel and productive work, this can be an easy fix.

 

1. Able to drill in the Antarctic for oil this would stop our dependence on other country’s oil...

We have more than enough proven reserves to supply ALL domestic consumption for 200 yrs. Do not allow US energy to be exported to the world market and the price will be stabilized at a reasonable and fair rate (though not likely the $0.13 a gallon I paid when I bought my first car).

 

Quote:
 2. Putting a tax in place for inbound products from other countries, they tax the crap out of us for shipping products to them so why not tax them. Make it so it is to expensive to import. But the Gov. will not do this because of big corporations that have gone overseas to produce at a cheap price for cheap goods. And we need there money here in the US.

Agreed. Tariffs protect domestic manufacturers and the labor they employ. If the FedGov was financed primarily by tariff and excise as it once was international corporations would not be as able to coerce politicians. The "cheap price for cheap goods" is only partially true. The imported goods are indeed cheap crap for the most part, but are sold for increasingly premium prices at the retail level.

 

Consider also that domestically produced goods benefit the domestic economy through multiple cycles - raw materials, manufacture, distribution, and retail all of which utilizing domestic labor. This keeps the currency flowing internally, negating trade deficits and multiplying the effect of each dollar by providing capital to the producer and jobs to labor (who can then become consumers perpetuating the cycle).

 

Quote:
 3. China manufacture is now figuring out how to market their own goods here, buying up stores and using a co-op of many manufactures to fund it.  What this will do is cut the American suppler out or make it so they can no longer compete with the factory that makes their goods since they now make it for themselves, and market in the US. Many of the college grads from China are in marketing, why so they can figure out how to market for the China factory’s. There only real issue they are having is how to sell their goods under a name that we will not know is not American and how to set up a foreign corporation.

 

And so, those advocates of "Free Trade" who shipped out much of the US manufacturing capability in search of slave labor may have their just comeuppance. :-X

post #18 of 23
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CR McDivot View Post
 

We have more than enough proven reserves to supply ALL domestic consumption for 200 yrs. Do not allow US energy to be exported to the world market and the price will be stabilized at a reasonable and fair rate (though not likely the $0.13 a gallon I paid when I bought my first car).

 

This prediction does even not include use of more fuel efficient cars and the proliferation of solar power in the southwest. California is a huge consumer of electricity. If we could supply some of it from solar power in the high desert, we could reduce natural gas consumption as well.

 

I think with more fuel efficiency and use of alternative (solar and wind), we have enough for many more years than that.

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