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Big Break Florida (2014) Thread - Page 12

post #199 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtogolf View Post

#35 is Blair O'Neal c5_banana.gif

Girls this season really need to up their game, from 95 yards out I'd expect more than one to get inside 10'.  This week showed how weak their strategy game is too.  During the first immunity, they all started out the bidding at 25' and most went down by 1's...24...23...22  d2_doh.gif .  If I was them, and had the first bid I'd have thrown out 15' and make the other girl go closer or take the shot.

It doesn't seem like the show even accounted for that possibility - if the first girl bid 15 and the other girl said hit the shot, that girl would never have bid a distance to hit her shot from if the first girl didn't hit it within 15'.
Actually they did, and in fact that is why your strategy is not sound. One of them (I forget which but I think Jackie) bid 15 first, and her opponent said go for it. She missed and the opponent only had to hit it inside of 25'. Which she did. So it would put you at a huge disadvantage if you started off bidding low.

My strategy would have been to bid 1' lower than my opponent every time until she gave up and made me hit (even if we got down to 7 or 8). That way I have my fate in my own hands AND force her to hit an almost equally decent shot to mine, were I to miss.
post #200 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtogolf View Post

#35 is Blair O'Neal c5_banana.gif

Girls this season really need to up their game, from 95 yards out I'd expect more than one to get inside 10'.  This week showed how weak their strategy game is too.  During the first immunity, they all started out the bidding at 25' and most went down by 1's...24...23...22  d2_doh.gif .  If I was them, and had the first bid I'd have thrown out 15' and make the other girl go closer or take the shot.

It doesn't seem like the show even accounted for that possibility - if the first girl bid 15 and the other girl said hit the shot, that girl would never have bid a distance to hit her shot from if the first girl didn't hit it within 15'.
Actually they did, and in fact that is why your strategy is not sound. One of them (I forget which but I think Jackie) bid 15 first, and her opponent said go for it. She missed and the opponent only had to hit it inside of 25'. Which she did. So it would put you at a huge disadvantage if you started off bidding low.

My strategy would have been to bid 1' lower than my opponent every time until she gave up and made me hit (even if we got down to 7 or 8). That way I have my fate in my own hands AND force her to hit an almost equally decent shot to mine, were I to miss.

 

Oh yea... forgot about that... I'm sure NewtoGolf did too. Good point. Except on the 7 or 8 feet part IMO. I think you gotta make them hit it if they say 12 or 13. I'd take the shot at 14 though for sure, fate still in my hands. 13 is where it starts getting gray for me, if you're a contestant on that show. 

 

OK, maybe 12. I think that's my line. I'll hit it still at 13 from that yardage if I'm a contestant on the show. 12 you can hit it, GD :-D

post #201 of 546

#1 on the list - Shannon Fish from the BB NFL show.    From watching the show, I wouldn't have known she had that kind of game ...

post #202 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post

You got me curious so I googled them.  I like the idea ... a "tour" for aspiring pros that eliminates the biggest expense (travel) that would really hamstring a lot of players.

Here are the final standings from their 3rd tournament of the year (they've had 6 so far) ... notice any familiar names here??? a2_wink.gif    Besides our winner, notice who finished in 53rd?? ;)  EDIT:  Oh, and 48th too!!d2_doh.gif

Oh, and the amateur girl who finished in 50th (Ava Lourenco) played in a few Golf Channel Am tourneys that I played in last year.  She was in the "Palmer" division for those with 4-8 handicaps and won at least two of the tournaments last year.

Thanks for the link to that site. Meghan Hardin was in last place or next to last place in 3 consecutive tournaments on the Cactus Tour. Ouch. Perhaps Big Break selected her as a contestant for reasons other than her golfing skills?
post #203 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by JetFan1983 View Post
 

 

... Except on the 7 or 8 feet part IMO. I think you gotta make them hit it if they say 12 or 13. I'd take the shot at 14 though for sure, fate still in my hands. 13 is where it starts getting gray for me, if you're a contestant on that show.

 

OK, maybe 12. I think that's my line. I'll hit it still at 13 from that yardage if I'm a contestant on the show. 12 you can hit it, GD :-D

LOL ... I'm speaking as a "pro" on the show when I say that.  If it's actually the real me, with my current abilities, I'm starting at 25' ... and you'd be wise to immediately force me to hit at that point. :-P

 

But, yeah, 7 or 8 is a bit low ... heck, I don't think even the top PGA Tour pros are that automatic.  I would have liked to see them go a pinch lower though ... so I think your 12 or 13 is accurate. ;)

post #204 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golfingdad View Post


Actually they did, and in fact that is why your strategy is not sound. One of them (I forget which but I think Jackie) bid 15 first, and her opponent said go for it. She missed and the opponent only had to hit it inside of 25'. Which she did. So it would put you at a huge disadvantage if you started off bidding low.

My strategy would have been to bid 1' lower than my opponent every time until she gave up and made me hit (even if we got down to 7 or 8). That way I have my fate in my own hands AND force her to hit an almost equally decent shot to mine, were I to miss.

I did miss that :doh:.  Then that would explain why they went by 1's after that.  What would have been more fair is for the other person to hit the shot that was bid, not 25'.  I wonder if Jackie understood that rule or was just so confident she could hit within 15' she didn't care.

post #205 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtogolf View Post
 

What would have been more fair is for the other person to hit the shot that was bid, not 25'.

I agree.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by newtogolf View Post
 

I wonder if Jackie understood that rule or was just so confident she could hit within 15' she didn't care.

Hmmm ... I would like to assume that they explain the rules a lot better to the contestants than they do the viewers, but who knows.  Because, you are right that they didn't explain that rule at the start ... Tom only mentioned it when it came up.

 

They did something similar in a previous show - when they all had hit one onto the green from a yardage between 80-120 yards.  Tom explained to us the order that they got to choose where they hit from, but failed to give us the most important piece:  the fact that once somebody chose a distance, it was off limits.  Ah, I get it now!  Because at first, I was like "why are these dumb girls not all choosing 80 yards???" :doh:

 

But they have only 44 minutes and I guess the editors figure that the rules explanations is a good place to trim the fat.

post #206 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandallT View Post
 

 

I agree with all of this.

 

Renee needs to pick up her game, because she has not played as well as her record on the Symetra Tour indicates she can (relatively to the others on that tour). Her confidence is low, and she will get bitten soon as others will pick her for the elimination challenges ahead. Jackie hasn't impressed much yet either, but I think she's got the right confidence and calm attitude so others fear her.  I think the final three will be Sadena, Tonya, Jackie. From there, whoever is hottest on the final day(s). 

 

I agree with this and think it will ultimately be Tonya that wins.   She just seems to be the least bothered by the stresses of the show.    I think Sadena has more game but seems to be a little more affected when something significant is on the line.

post #207 of 546
Quote:
 I agree with this and think it will ultimately be Tonya that wins.   She just seems to be the least bothered by the stresses of the show.    I think Sadena has more game but seems to be a little more affected when something significant is on the line.

Are you sure? If we look at the ladies' actual golf resumes, it is evident that Tonya is one of the weakest links left on the show. Tonya has almost no professional golf experience, and has only played like 2-3 professional tournaments in the last 4 years. She has like two Cactus tour results where she averaged like 79 strokes and finished near the bottom of the leaderboard, playing considerably worse than basically all past and present Big Breakers i.e., except Meghan Hardin(barely placed higher than Meghan Hardin). She also played one other tournament, where she missed the cut by shooting +5 79-70 (2013 Health One Colorado Women's Open). In that same tournament, Mary (T7, -4), Lindsay (T-28), and Renee (33) all placed considerably better. Tonya wasnt even close to the top 50. So if you think Tonya is a strong golfer, think again.

 

I would rank the remaining golfers as (and this is ranked of resumes, not the few shots played on the show. Assessing a player by the few shots they hit on the show is just a ridiculous idea.)

1. Jackie (has LPGA status this year!)

2. Sadena

3. Mary

4. Renee

5. Kristi

6. Lindsay

7. Fiamma

8. Tonya

9. Kylee

---------

And the 3 eliminated, which were clearly the three worst.

10. Lauren

11. Dallas

12. Courtney

post #208 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbob View Post
 

Are you sure? If we look at the ladies' actual golf resumes, it is evident that Tonya is one of the weakest links left on the show. Tonya has almost no professional golf experience, and has only played like 2-3 professional tournaments in the last 4 years. She has like two Cactus tour results where she averaged like 79 strokes and finished near the bottom of the leaderboard, playing considerably worse than basically all past and present Big Breakers i.e., except Meghan Hardin(barely placed higher than Meghan Hardin). She also played one other tournament, where she missed the cut by shooting +5 79-70 (2013 Health One Colorado Women's Open). In that same tournament, Mary (T7, -4), Lindsay (T-28), and Renee (33) all placed considerably better. Tonya wasnt even close to the top 50. So if you think Tonya is a strong golfer, think again.

 

I would rank the remaining golfers as (and this is ranked of resumes, not the few shots played on the show. Assessing a player by the few shots they hit on the show is just a ridiculous idea.)

1. Jackie (has LPGA status this year!)

2. Sadena

3. Mary

4. Renee

5. Kristi

6. Lindsay

7. Fiamma

8. Tonya

9. Kylee

---------

And the 3 eliminated, which were clearly the three worst.

10. Lauren

11. Dallas

12. Cour


I don't know where you get your info from but according to the Golf Channel site, Tonya earned conditional status to the Ladies European Tour in 2010 (which she gave up because of pregnancy) and had 4 top tens on the Cactus Tour last year (as opposed to the info you are posting).  So yeah, based on the competition, I think she probably has the game to win this.   I really only see Lindsay and Jackie as having comparable resumes.  Mary's whole game is based on intimidation and that is only going to carry her so far, especially since she is really very insecure, so under real stress, I expect her to fold.   Sadena is showing some comparatively decent skills but a tendency to choke under pressure, whereas Tonya has managed to earn immunity on every show and seems largely unaffected by the stress of any particular shot so far.  So yeah, Tonya remains my best guess as the ultimate winner.


Edited by teamroper60 - 3/20/14 at 1:37am
post #209 of 546
So I got to bring this up...

Dallas loses the show then says that she doesn't want to play pro golf anymore. Apparently she talked to some of the other players and they informed her that playing on tour means lots of time away from family.

She seriously didn't already know this? Was she ever serious about this dream at all? Yes Dallas, the tour involves being on the road...
post #210 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by clutchshot View Post

So I got to bring this up...

Dallas loses the show then says that she doesn't want to play pro golf anymore. Apparently she talked to some of the other players and they informed her that playing on tour means lots of time away from family.

She seriously didn't already know this? Was she ever serious about this dream at all? Yes Dallas, the tour involves being on the road...


She is a spoilt 19 year old. I think she just thought it would be fun. A lot of those small town girls have no interest in leaving the comfort of family. I think the golf channel was hoping she would break down.

post #211 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valleygolfer View Post
 


She is a spoilt 19 year old. I think she just thought it would be fun. A lot of those small town girls have no interest in leaving the comfort of family. I think the golf channel was hoping she would break down.

Or maybe she just realized with that awkward swing of hers and lack of skills compared to the other girls she wasn't going to make it on Tour.

post #212 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valleygolfer View Post
 


She is a spoilt 19 year old. I think she just thought it would be fun. A lot of those small town girls have no interest in leaving the comfort of family. I think the golf channel was hoping she would break down.

 

I have no idea if Dallas was spoiled, but I do agree she was there to add to the drama. Always fun to introduce people to different personalities and life experiences to watch the fireworks fly. And I never fully understood where Dallas dropped the ball when she duck-hooked it left. Was that in a lateral hazard? She seemed to have quite an opening with a clear shot at the green. Seemed questionable, but I imagine there was a valid ruling made by their rules people. I would like it if they showed a little more of those times when the players are faced with rulings

 

I think the next few shows will be fun to see the tiers develop. I have no idea yet about Kristi, Kylee, Fiamma, Lindsay- they could actually be better than they first appeared to me. Maybe the others are weaker than I thought. Renee is certainly not as good as I thought at first. Mary seems beatable too. Maybe one of the ladies who we assumed was top-tier could easily go down next.  

post #213 of 546
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandallT View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valleygolfer View Post
 


She is a spoilt 19 year old. I think she just thought it would be fun. A lot of those small town girls have no interest in leaving the comfort of family. I think the golf channel was hoping she would break down.

 

I have no idea if Dallas was spoiled, but I do agree she was there to add to the drama. Always fun to introduce people to different personalities and life experiences to watch the fireworks fly. And I never fully understood where Dallas dropped the ball when she duck-hooked it left. Was that in a lateral hazard? She seemed to have quite an opening with a clear shot at the green. Seemed questionable, but I imagine there was a valid ruling made by their rules people. I would like it if they showed a little more of those times when the players are faced with rulings

 

I think the next few shows will be fun to see the tiers develop. I have no idea yet about Kristi, Kylee, Fiamma, Lindsay- they could actually be better than they first appeared to me. Maybe the others are weaker than I thought. Renee is certainly not as good as I thought at first. Mary seems beatable too. Maybe one of the ladies who we assumed was top-tier could easily go down next.  


maybe I should have said "sheltered".

 
post #214 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbob View Post
 

Are you sure? If we look at the ladies' actual golf resumes, it is evident that Tonya is one of the weakest links left on the show. Tonya has almost no professional golf experience, and has only played like 2-3 professional tournaments in the last 4 years. She has like two Cactus tour results where she averaged like 79 strokes and finished near the bottom of the leaderboard, playing considerably worse than basically all past and present Big Breakers i.e., except Meghan Hardin(barely placed higher than Meghan Hardin). She also played one other tournament, where she missed the cut by shooting +5 79-70 (2013 Health One Colorado Women's Open). In that same tournament, Mary (T7, -4), Lindsay (T-28), and Renee (33) all placed considerably better. Tonya wasnt even close to the top 50. So if you think Tonya is a strong golfer, think again.

 

I would rank the remaining golfers as (and this is ranked of resumes, not the few shots played on the show. Assessing a player by the few shots they hit on the show is just a ridiculous idea.)

1. Jackie (has LPGA status this year!)

2. Sadena

3. Mary

4. Renee

5. Kristi

6. Lindsay

7. Fiamma

8. Tonya

9. Kylee

---------

And the 3 eliminated, which were clearly the three worst.

10. Lauren

11. Dallas

12. Courtney

Renae looks good, but she ain't got game. Those chips from the latest episode left a ton to be desired.


Edited by 3putter - 3/20/14 at 3:59pm
post #215 of 546
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3putter View Post
 

Renae looks good, but she ain't got game. Those chips from the latest episode left a ton to be desired.

 

 

I'll give Rene the benefit of the doubt, as she could be very nervous and not concentrating ..? we'll see.

post #216 of 546
The lack of talent and consistency makes for unexpected out comes. I am just okay with it and look at it as a typical game show.

I think Sedena will take it, I think she has the mental game and I think her flubs are due to being overly confident and not taking some of the shots as serious as she should.

Tonya is just more mature than most of the others and has a plan.

Mary has played competitive sports for a long time and has the typical bust your balls lesbian basketball player attitude that I experienced when I was in college. Boy I was told about some of the women's bball parties by a straight teammate.... gross!

Those are my three for the finale but Jackie might sneak in there... Renee will be gone within 3 shows...

Kaylee is the show's Gilligan... Dingbat that is great at stating the obvious...

Others are non contenders...
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