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Malaysian Airlines Flight Missing, Presumed Crashed - Page 6

post #91 of 165
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dchoye View Post
 

This is sad, ironically I watched" Nonstop " movie few weeks ago .

The movie was with  Liam Neeson and the plot was based on a hijack plane while on route in the air.

I wonder if whoever was responsible got some ideas from that movie.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post
 

I would think that since the movie just came out, it wouldn't leave very much time to plan the sort of thing.

 

Yeah, hijacking a plane is one thing. Making it completely disappear is another thing entirely.

post #92 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by geauxforbroke View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by dchoye View Post

 
This is sad, ironically I watched" Nonstop " movie few weeks ago .
The movie was with  Liam Neeson and the plot was based on a hijack plane while on route in the air.
I wonder if whoever was responsible got some ideas from that movie.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post


I would think that since the movie just came out, it wouldn't leave very much time to plan the sort of thing.

Yeah, hijacking a plane is one thing. Making it completely disappear is another thing entirely.

It's feasible, but I hope, unlikely.
post #93 of 165

For those asking why they are able to turn off the ACARs and transponder from inside the plane they had a pilot on a few days ago on CNN. He said that most pilots don't like to have anything in their cock pit that they can't turn off at any point just based on emergency. Whether that be an electrical fire or mechanical failure. Pilots want to have control of everything they possibly can. He also said that the transponder is usually turned off once the plane lands and is on the tarmac to not clog up the screens of the air traffic controllers. Basically he said almost everything on a plane can be turned off. Some are easier to turn off than others like the transponder being a simple switch where as the ACARs you need to enter the belly of the plane.

post #94 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtogolf View Post

They believe that someone got into the E&E (that I included a link to in an earlier post) and turned off the breaker for the transponder and communications.

Ah, got it thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Conrad View Post

For those asking why they are able to turn off the ACARs and transponder from inside the plane they had a pilot on a few days ago on CNN. He said that most pilots don't like to have anything in their cock pit that they can't turn off at any point just based on emergency. Whether that be an electrical fire or mechanical failure. Pilots want to have control of everything they possibly can. He also said that the transponder is usually turned off once the plane lands and is on the tarmac to not clog up the screens of the air traffic controllers. Basically he said almost everything on a plane can be turned off. Some are easier to turn off than others like the transponder being a simple switch where as the ACARs you need to enter the belly of the plane.

That was going to be my next question. That makes sense.
post #95 of 165

Kinda thinking this left turn theory makes the most sense: that there was some catastrophic malfunction, it turned around to go back to the airport, was disabled further maybe by depressurization a la Payne Stewart, and then just kept flying for seven hours until crashing near the Maldives or something. 

post #96 of 165

Latest theory:

 

On board electrical fire caused some panic.

 

The pilots turned off all the non-critical electric circuits. Possibly, non-critical flight functions in the instrument bay in the belly of the plane.

 

They went up in elevation to dowse the fire (presuming they gave the passengers their oxygen masks)

 

Diverted course to land safely. All the transponders were off at this point.

 

They crashed somewhere, TBD

 

Edit: Jetfan's link.

post #97 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lihu View Post
 

Latest theory:

 

On board electrical fire caused some panic.

 

The pilots turned off all the non-critical electric circuits. Possibly, non-critical flight functions in the instrument bay in the belly of the plane.

 

They went up in elevation to dowse the fire (presuming they gave the passengers their oxygen masks)

 

Diverted course to land safely. All the transponders were off at this point.

 

They crashed somewhere, TBD

 

Edit: Jetfan's link.

 

Yea, maybe it's not called the Left Turn Theory. 

 

The electrical fire theory? The article presents a pretty plausible scenario IMO. Swissair 111 also lost their transponder due to a fire. 

 

Here's the link again: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

post #98 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by JetFan1983 View Post
 

 

Yea, maybe it's not called the Left Turn Theory. 

 

The electrical fire theory? The article presents a pretty plausible scenario IMO. Swissair 111 also lost their transponder due to a fire. 

 

Here's the link again: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

I just finished this article and was about to post it here. I think this is by far the best explanation I have read. Everything adds up in this article. 

post #99 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by mchepp View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JetFan1983 View Post
 

 

Yea, maybe it's not called the Left Turn Theory. 

 

The electrical fire theory? The article presents a pretty plausible scenario IMO. Swissair 111 also lost their transponder due to a fire. 

 

Here's the link again: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

I just finished this article and was about to post it here. I think this is by far the best explanation I have read. Everything adds up in this article. 

 

What kind of shocks me is how this theory hasn't been more publicized, even earlier on in the investigation. I'm not a pilot, but even as a layman, this kinda is the most likely scenario, regardless of what actually happened. I'm just talking for probability's sake. 

 

So with this theory, the plane might be somewhere around here it seems, give or take a few hundred nautical miles:

post #100 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by JetFan1983 View Post
 

 

What kind of shocks me is how this theory hasn't been more publicized, even earlier on in the investigation. I'm not a pilot, but even as a layman, this kinda is the most likely scenario, regardless of what actually happened. I'm just talking for probability's sake. 

 

So with this theory, the plane might be somewhere around here it seems, give or take a few hundred nautical miles:

 

 

I'll definitely buy something like this if they back off the report that the entry of the new waypoint to the west was done prior to the time they said good night to Malaysian air traffic control. The NY Times said:

 

"Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html

 

And they continue to stand by this today. I just saw one of the authors, Matthew Wald, tell Jake Tapper on CNN that US investigators are fairly sure that the waypoint was added before the "good night" (with no hint of any issues), perhaps even when on the ground! He stuck by it being reported via ACARS, which many have said is NOT a function of ACARS. 

 

So something is not adding up. The NY Times has some 'splainin' to do, because I've seen numerous people say that the flight management system would not tell ACARS anything like waypoint additions!  

 

What's bugging me also is that the timing of it all.  There are only a few minutes between leaving Malaysian ATC and checking in with VietNam ATC. The event happened right then... during what is statistically the safest part of a flight, steady state altitude and speed.  

 

But yes, this adds up. All I have to contradict it is:

1. the NY Times report above ( which easily could be wrong or the crew maybe was investigating the incident and didn't want to report anything to Malaysia ATC they weren't sure about- hence the odd and brief "alright, good night") and

2. the freaky timing (it could happen, stranger things have, I suppose).

 

Oh, I love the map. I assume that's the Maldives SSW of India there. I know it's somewhere in the Indian Ocean.

 

post #101 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandallT View Post
 
 

I'll definitely buy something like this if they back off the report that the entry of the new waypoint to the west was done prior to the time they said good night to Malaysian air traffic control. The NY Times said:

 

"Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html

 

And they continue to stand by this today. I just saw one of the authors, Matthew Wald, tell Jake Tapper on CNN that US investigators are fairly sure that the waypoint was added before the "good night" (with no hint of any issues), perhaps even when on the ground! He stuck by it being reported via ACARS, which many have said is NOT a function of ACARS. 

 

So something is not adding up. The NY Times has some 'splainin' to do, because I've seen numerous people say that the flight management system would not tell ACARS anything like waypoint additions!  

 

What's bugging me also is that the timing of it all.  There are only a few minutes between leaving Malaysian ATC and checking in with VietNam ATC. The event happened right then... during what is statistically the safest part of a flight, steady state altitude and speed.  

 

But yes, this adds up. All I have to contradict it is:

1. the NY Times report above ( which easily could be wrong or the crew maybe was investigating the incident and didn't want to report anything to Malaysia ATC they weren't sure about- hence the odd and brief "alright, good night") and

2. the freaky timing (it could happen, stranger things have, I suppose).

 

Oh, I love the map. I assume that's the Maldives SSW of India there. I know it's somewhere in the Indian Ocean.

 

 

Yea, somewhere around there. I think that island chain where the yellow line ends is named Chagos Archipelago (I used google maps for that if you were wondering). 

 

As for the rest of your post.... your guess is as good as mine... My head is spinning on this one. I may have to accept that they might not find this thing for several months. Jeez. So many plausible scenarios, so little information, so much area to search. Ugh. 

post #102 of 165

It is reported as a fact* that the left turn was pre-programmed into the flight computer. If true that means there wasn't a fire or any other malfunction that caused the turn.

 

*On this story it's hard to tell where real news reporting leaves off and "entertainment magazine show" speculation begins, even on "hard news" segments.

post #103 of 165

Seems the pilots union and airlines are attempting to spin this in favor of the pilot until all the facts are known and are getting the story out through their own sources but the facts don't make sense.

 

The waypoint was set before the last communications with the plane took place (this is thus far one of the few facts that have been confirmed by multiple sources) which would indicate it was not done in reaction to a catastrophic failure.  It also doesn't explain why the pilot would signoff with "goodnight".  It's not uncommon for pilots to say "goodnight" to ATC'ers whose shifts are ending but it also would indicate that everything was fine with the flight.

 

Short of a bomb or an explosion, a fire typically won't spread quickly on a plane as it's outfitted with wires and plastic that are very slow burn.  Based on what I've read, ACARS can only be shut off inside the E&E, so if they were trying to extinguish a fire or shut down breakers, they would have had time to communicate a problem while someone pulled up the carpet and crawled down the access door in the front galley.   Pilots also have alternative communications methods which could have been engaged during the climb to 45,000 feet.  I also can't believe the lavatories are the only places with smoke detectors so any slow burn fire would have set off a detector before any real damage was done.

 

U.S. just demanded complete transparency from the Malaysian government so maybe we'll get some real answers now.

post #104 of 165
It's likely that many of the facts are wrong. The wired story fits all but one of them. That's probably as good as any other.

One problem is that there are so many countries in that part of the world that we can't really trust, both in the sense that they might be less than forthcoming, and simply unreliable. Pakistan says it's not in their country, like we haven't heard that before. Malaysia is bungling the I vestigation. Thailand takes 2 weeks to figure out that it's own radar caught sight of the plane. India doesn't seem very interested in helping.
post #105 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsc123 View Post

It's likely that many of the facts are wrong. The wired story fits all but one of them. That's probably as good as any other.

One problem is that there are so many countries in that part of the world that we can't really trust, both in the sense that they might be less than forthcoming, and simply unreliable. Pakistan says it's not in their country, like we haven't heard that before. Malaysia is bungling the I vestigation. Thailand takes 2 weeks to figure out that it's own radar caught sight of the plane. India doesn't seem very interested in helping.

 

Well said... and as the forum's chief investigator I'm inclined to agree with you. No theory is 100% fool proof, but here are the three most likely reasons, both in my opinion and it seems the consensus opinion as well. Perhaps these aren't ranked in the same order, but I think we can agree these three should rule the conversation. There's nothing new here, but I'm trying to organize my thoughts into something fairly basic... at least, as best as I can. 

 

1. Mechanical failure leading to catastrophic loss of electronics and communications... Pilots turn heading back to the closest airport but depressurization or something leads to a Payne Stewart situation. The plane flies on auto-pilot for several hours before crashing deep in the Indian Ocean (left turn theory). The reason I say this is the most likely situation is because when planes go down, it's usually due to mechanical failure... and even sometimes pilot error. Probability states that this wasn't intentional. But then again, this is a unique scenario, so while likely, it's the following theories that really concern me. 

 

The plane likely flew west deep out into the Indian Ocean where there is literally almost nothing but deep water. This theory contradicts the final satellite ping that would put the wreck somewhere along that arc; however, it is possible of course that this still happened and the plane somehow managed to end up on one of those two suggested corridors. 

 

2. Pilot suicide theory. Again, I can't imagine someone getting this elaborate here just to end it all, but then again, if there is political motivation or a serious mental issue, anything is possible. There are any number of absurd reasons why someone would commit suicide in this manner. None of them make 100% sense to me, but then again, nothing in this entire story makes 100% sense. 

 

Plane likely flew south in this scenario, somewhere that crossed the southern corridor, but going north is certainly possible too. 

 

3. A plane commandeering by pilots or a hijacking by people on the plane or a combination of both. This just seems the most outlandish to me, the most hollywood... but it should still remain on the table until all theories can be ruled out. For the sake of the safety of the American people for example, investigators need to look at this scenario as if it actually happened. Also, this is the only theory that gives the families of the passengers any hope, so I'm inclined to keep as a possibility for this reason alone. 

 

Plane likely flew north in this scenario, but the south is still possible too. They could have pulled this off using the shadow theory I guess. Again, it's wildly unlikely, but with no evidence, we can't rule no.3 out. 

 


 

Did I forget a major theory?... besides alien abductions of course. 

post #106 of 165
So far, I think that all evidence we have points to scenario 2. To my knowledge, there isn't any evidence of any failure. We can hope this wasn't a diabolical plot, but lacking evidence, we have to stick with the simplest explanation that matches the current confirmed evidence: a planned action by a person.

I'm skeptical we will ever find the plane because NBC in Washington just announced that we do not know the store in Maryland that sold a winning MegaMillions ticket. We know it was in Maryland, but unable to determine where. If we can't figure THAT out, then what hope do we have of finding this missing aircraft?
post #107 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by snapfade View Post
 

And on another note. If you are interested in crowdsourcing the effort to scan satellite photos via Tomnod you can link up here. Over 3 million have joined so far.

 

 http://www.tomnod.com/nod/


I've also decided to help when I get the occasional block of spare time.

post #108 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by MiniBlueDragon View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by snapfade View Post
 

And on another note. If you are interested in crowdsourcing the effort to scan satellite photos via Tomnod you can link up here. Over 3 million have joined so far.

 

 http://www.tomnod.com/nod/


I've also decided to help when I get the occasional block of spare time.

 

Yea, I should probably do that too at some point tonight, for 10 or 15 minutes at least. If enough people do it, who knows, someone could get lucky. 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by RandallT View Post

So far, I think that all evidence we have points to scenario 2. To my knowledge, there isn't any evidence of any failure. We can hope this wasn't a diabolical plot, but lacking evidence, we have to stick with the simplest explanation that matches the current confirmed evidence: a planned action by a person.

I'm skeptical we will ever find the plane because NBC in Washington just announced that we do not know the store in Maryland that sold a winning MegaMillions ticket. We know it was in Maryland, but unable to determine where. If we can't figure THAT out, then what hope do we have of finding this missing aircraft?

 

If the plane is in the ocean, I would think we'd have to find it eventually. Wreckage would at some point wash up on someone's shore. Or perhaps fishermen may find debris in their nets. Plus, the pings from the black box recorders worked for two years after the AF447 crash, so while I do think there's certainly a good chance we may never find the plane, I think we will one day. 

 

That day might not come though for several months. Maybe even years. But even the smallest bit of wreckage could surface any day now too. 

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