Anyone want to get a TST bracket challenge goin?
2014 NCAA Basketball Tournament
TheSandTrap.com Top Picks
Quicken Loans and Warren Buffet are having a contest, with a top prize of $1 billion dollars for a perfect bracket. The odds of winning the Grand Prize are 1:9,223,372,036,854,775,808. That’s 1 in 9 quintillion. Which essentially means, it is a waste of time. Plus you have to sign up and give them all kinds of personal info, so a net loss when you consider the tradeoff.
Whoa! I went to espn.com a few minutes ago and Albany was beating (somebody) 21-5. Now, they're only winning 27-26!
Let the madness begin!!! OK, not the real madness, the pre-madness-madness where some of the crappy 16's and bubble 12's battle it out in the "first round."
Either way ... we're getting close!
LOL ... funny you should mention this because I read yesterday that if this happens, Warren Buffett will take you to the game and sit with you, with a check in his pocket.
I also wanted to bring this up as the basis for a little math-ish problem for everybody. In that story, Buffett also said that if anybody made it to the final four with their bracket completely intact, he'd try to buy them out of the bet.
So, me and the guys at my work got to thinking ... What would your number be? What is the lowest amount of money that Buffett could offer you at that point that you would accept?
Keep in mind that:
your chances of getting a bracket completely correct from start to finish is: 1 in 9,000,000,000,000,000,000**
your chances of getting a bracket completely correct from start to final four is: 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
your chances of getting a bracket completely correct from final four to finish is: 1 in 8
**Those are statistical probabilities only and don't account for the fact that some games are easy to pick correctly. You could almost safely discount all of the 1/16 games, 2/15 games, and maybe even 3/14 games and say the odds are probably really more like 1 in 2 quintillion, instead of 9. (sooooo much better )
We realized that the odds have nothing to do with it at that point. The only thing that matters is that Buffett makes an offer high enough to be somewhat life-changing. The odds say that you should accept nothing less than 125 million. Long story short, I convinced myself that I would even accept 1 (repeat ONE) million if Buffett wanted to play hardball. I would try to negotiate up, obviously, but I would still not say no to 1 million dollars. Anything less, though, I think I'm rolling the dice.
You'd take whatever he offered. $125 M would make logical sense, but that'd be a wash as far as he's concerned.
At $100M the odds are in his favor BUT you're still making a ****ing hundred million dollars. I'd take $10M or more, and he could spare $10M like it's pocket lint. You can live off the interest of $10M in some pricy areas of the country and super-safe investments, after all.
Of course, I'd make sure it was $10M after taxes. ;)
P.S. For $1M? Please. You could easily sell your ticket to someone - a Las Vegas casino, perhaps - for way, way more than that.