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What would you shoot at Augusta on Sunday? - Page 13

post #217 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by tefunk View Post

I'm not familiar with this book in any way, so I'm curious, what is that 20% statistic based on?

20% on any random hole? 20% of the time a player who shoots 80 will have less putts in an entire round than a pro? Does this take into account GIR (I.e. Do both the pro and the amateur have the same GIR%)?

To me, statistics don't always mean much without understanding what they're based on. So I'm not trying be a pain, but would like to understand what that 20% truly represents.

 

I said out-putt. :-) I didn't say "take fewer putts than" or anything else. I said "out-putt." So… no, it's not based on any of the methods you mentioned as such a stat would be virtually meaningless. Someone who misses 18 GIR is almost bound to have fewer putts than a guy who hits all 18.

 

Clue: It's on page 56 according to my notes, right inside the "Strokes Gained Putting" chapter. More blatant clue: He's talking simply about strokes gained, which is one of the fairest measures of putting performance. A 90s golfer out-putts a PGA Tour pro 10% of the time, and a scratch golfer about 30% of the time.

 

It's off topic for this thread AND contains material in both his book and my own, so I encourage you to buy both. Simply put: PGA Tour pros are not phenomenally awesome putters. That's not why they're on the PGA Tour, and that's not a skill they do so much better than even a guy who shoots in the 90s.

post #218 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by iacas View Post

I said out-putt. a1_smile.gif  I didn't say "take fewer putts than" or anything else. I said "out-putt." So… no, it's not based on any of the methods you mentioned as such a stat would be virtually meaningless. Someone who misses 18 GIR is almost bound to have fewer putts than a guy who hits all 18.

Clue: It's on page 56 according to my notes, right inside the "Strokes Gained Putting" chapter. More blatant clue: He's talking simply about strokes gained, which is one of the fairest measures of putting performance. A 90s golfer out-putts a PGA Tour pro 10% of the time, and a scratch golfer about 30% of the time.

It's off topic for this thread AND contains material in both his book and my own, so I encourage you to buy both. Simply put: PGA Tour pros are not phenomenally awesome putters. That's not why they're on the PGA Tour, and that's not a skill they do so much better than even a guy who shoots in the 90s.
I'm reading the book now and so far that is what I have gathered. Pros don't putt spectacularly better than amateurs, and putting isn't as significant to scoring as we all think.
post #219 of 229
It sounds like I need to better understand "out-putt" and what that actually means, along with a better understanding of "strokes gained".

And yes, my point was pretty much that those statistics would be meaningless, depending what they're based on.

It seems like relevant conversation to the thread if people are debating why they would shoot what score at Augusta, based on the difficulty of the course, and based on the differences between a pro and an amateur. But I'd happy happy to start another thread on the subject matter of statistics and what they truly mean, if that is preferred.
post #220 of 229
I think the strokes gained stats show that there isn't a very large gap between a pro and amateur and also that putting isn't the most important stroke from tee to green. So with that being said, this ties into this topic, some people argue that amateurs wouldn't have a chance at Augusta due to the tough greens and hard putts.
post #221 of 229
The course has been rated unofficially a couple of years ago for 'sunday at the masters conditions'. Result courserating of 78.1 and a slope of 137. Which means a scratch golfer on a good day (and local knowledge) would be able to score high in the seventies.

My course handicap would be 19, so a 91 after a week of practice on the course and bringing my a-game and a bit of luck would be possible.

http://www.popeofslope.com/magazine/how_tough_augusta.html
post #222 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacDutch View Post

The course has been rated unofficially a couple of years ago for 'sunday at the masters conditions'. Result courserating of 78.1 and a slope of 137. Which means a scratch golfer on a good day (and local knowledge) would be able to score high in the seventies.

yes....he would be able to score in the '70s on his best days, but his average score will be comfortably in the 80s.   A scratch golfer playing a course with similar ratings will average around 82-83........

 

I believe the 78CR........but doubt the 137slope is accurate.   it must be higher.  Slope and CR tells the story of length and difficulty/hazards, but course setup for a major championship is an entirely different beast.  Several of the worlds best players fail to break 80 during the tourney.

post #223 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by jclark View Post


I'm reading the book now and so far that is what I have gathered. Pros don't putt spectacularly better than amateurs, and putting isn't as significant to scoring as we all think.

 

So driving isn't just for show? ;-)

 

Like it was brought up on the Lowest Score Wins video, if you had to have a competition against a pro, would you have a better chance in a putting match or a "who can hit the most greens" match? 

post #224 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckeyeNut View Post
 

yes....he would be able to score in the '70s on his best days, but his average score will be comfortably in the 80s.   A scratch golfer playing a course with similar ratings will average around 82-83........

 

I believe the 78CR........but doubt the 137slope is accurate.   it must be higher.  Slope and CR tells the story of length and difficulty/hazards, but course setup for a major championship is an entirely different beast.  Several of the worlds best players fail to break 80 during the tourney.


Yes the slope has to be much higher than that, more like 145 would probably be more realistic, I don't think I would break 90 for at least the first 5 rounds. I would just love to putt on those greens though, the consistency of those greens is what makes that course so unbelievable and of course the wicked breaks would be a blast to actually roll a ball over. Hitting the fairways is not really any harder than most other courses it's getting the approaches to stay on the greens with all of the false fronts and slopes off the back of those greens you really need a caddy to tell you where and how far.

post #225 of 229

I don't think anyone mentioned the following.   The fairway appears to be very "fast."   I'd gain 20 yards off tee just on rolls.   And for a bogey golfer like me, I am used to scrambling my way to green (i.e, GIR+1, GIR+2).   With very few OB areas, I just need to avoid hazards, and play conservatively (forget GIR) to have my usual game ... until I reach green where I expect to do 42 total putts (8 over my average). 

post #226 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckeyeNut View Post

yes....he would be able to score in the '70s on his best days, but his average score will be comfortably in the 80s.   A scratch golfer playing a course with similar ratings will average around 82-83........

 

I believe the 78CR........but doubt the 137slope is accurate.   it must be higher.  Slope and CR tells the story of length and difficulty/hazards, but course setup for a major championship is an entirely different beast.  Several of the worlds best players fail to break 80 during the tourney.

 




The guy who did this unofficial rating in the link I gave, is well aware of this all. But even if the slope is 145, it would give me only one extra stroke. So again when I have a weeks training on the course, bringing my a-game and a bit of luck, I would be able to score a low 90.
post #227 of 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacDutch View Post

The guy who did this unofficial rating in the link I gave, is well aware of this all. But even if the slope is 145, it would give me only one extra stroke. So again when I have a weeks training on the course, bringing my a-game and a bit of luck, I would be able to score a low 90.

 

Correct. He also wrote this (to those who keep suggesting people would shoot 30+ strokes worse than usual):

 

Quote:
We've established that the Course Rating for a scratch player would be 78.1. A player with a 10.0 Handicap Index would have a course handicap of 12, with an average score of 93 (78.1 Course Rating, plus the course handicap of 12, plus 3, because golfers average three strokes over their handicap). A player with an 18.0 Handicap Index would have a course handicap of 22 and would average 103 strokes.
post #228 of 229
If there's one thing I learned in this thread, it's that I was wrong:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shindig View Post

Let's say 126. Here's my thinking: especially because of the length, add one to the par of every hole for what it'd be for me, and then double bogey every hole.

But I feel good about being wrong, because it means that if I do somehow get a chance to play Augusta National, I will score better than I thought I would a week or so ago. Gave some of the putts a few thoughts during the tournament. I'm amazed at how many there were whose break I knew by having watched for so many years. Not saying I could read them perfectly if it came down to me being there (all I ask is a chance to do so), but other than a few oddball ones, I don't think the putting would be my issue there.

The CR/SR calculation seems about right after being reminded.

Still, not as good as I can produce on TW12.
post #229 of 229

if today was sunday at Augusta i would probably shoot around 100 because i can't get off the tee good for the life of me right now haha

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