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What Happens First: Rory Completes Slam or Tiger Wins 15th Major? - Page 3

Poll Results: Which Happens First?

 
  • 60% (47)
    Rory wins the Masters to complete the career grand slam
  • 39% (31)
    Tiger Woods wins his 15th major championship
78 Total Votes  
post #37 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeph View Post
 

Tiger is now apparently Eldrick, the golfer formerly known as Tiger.
 

Oh, Ok. Can I be Tiger then?

:-P

post #38 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

 

 

 

You wrote this in another thread, Ernest, so I am sure you can figure this out. :-)

 

Quote: Tiger will always be compared to TIGER!!!!! which is a hard standard to meet.

LOL. Damnit!!! I got Busted for being willfully obtuse! :-$

 

You should have said, "Tiger is no longer TIGER!!!!!"

 

;-)

post #39 of 171

I wanted to expand on what I meant by the numbers being on Tiger's side, so I'm going to do an analysis based on major finishes.


I'm going to use the 2009 season as the starting point. It's conveniently the first year Rory started competing in majors as a professional, and the year Tiger returned to competing in majors after his 2008 US Open win (and subsequent surgery).


Since 2009, Tiger Woods has played in 19 majors. He has 12 top 25 finishes, with 9 of those being in the top 10. He has only missed the cut twice. Percentage-wise, Tiger has finished in the top 25 63% of the time, with 47% top 10 finishes. He missed the cut 11% of the time.


Rory has played in all 23 majors starting in 2009. He has 14 top 25 finishes, with 8 top 10s, and 3 wins. He has missed the cut four times. Percentage-wise, Rory has finished in the top 25 61% of the time, with 35% top 10 finishes. He missed the cut 17% of the time.


Given those, numbers, I'd give the edge to Tiger. But we're talking about the Masters for Rory, right? Well, he's played in 6 Masters Tournaments since 2009, with 4 top 25 finishes, 1 being in the top 10, and 1 missed cut. Percentage-wise, Rory has finished in the top 25 67% of the time, with 17% top 10 finishes and 17% missed cuts.


It's a really small sample, but Rory hasn't fared much better in the Masters than all of the other majors combined (his best finishes are at the PGA Championship). Given that, I'd still give the edge to Tiger.


In fact, since we're comparing Tiger to Rory, we can look at how Tiger did in the Masters Tournament since 2009. He's played in 5 events, with 4 top 25 finishes, all top 10. Tiger is sporting an 80% top 25 finish percentage (80% top 10), to Rory's 67% (17% top 10). When you look it like that, I'd say Tiger has a better chance to win the Masters than Rory.


I know it's a simple and undoubtedly flawed analysis, but I think it serves at least a little bit to give this discussion some objectivity. I'd like to think this might be a better way of looking at it that simply picking one player or the other somewhat arbitrarily. I don't know, what do you guys think?







Quote:
Originally Posted by Yukari View Post

 

For those claiming Tiger has "the numbers on his side" as in he has more chances to get to 15 than Rory to win Masters before Tiger, all I can say is number doesn't matter unless Tiger improves his performance.




I expect Tiger should be fully recovered by the 2015 Masters Tournament, and we all know what Tiger can still do at 100% (Tiger won 5 events last year with 2 top 10 finishes in the majors).


I honestly can't look at the tournament results and come to any conclusion other than Tiger is better than Rory. And I'm not talking about Tiger in his prime (which is obvious), but 38 year old Tiger, barring injury. Rory can get hot and play lights out (his PGA Championship win in 2012 is surrounded by mediocre major performances), but Tiger is just consistently more often at the top.

post #40 of 171

Ernest, remember, on the internet it is never the obtuseness (lol) that get's you, it's always the willfullness. :-)

post #41 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

Ernest, remember, on the internet it is never the obtuseness (lol) that get's you, it's always the willfullness. :-)

Lol. Yep, fully and completely busted on that one! 

post #42 of 171

billchao, with all due respect, since winning in 2008 Tiger hasn't once been able to put it all together. Rory has done so three times, all in rather convincing fashion. Tiger has really only had two close calls where it looked like he might actually win in majors since 2008, and the last of those two occurrences was 4+ years ago. 

 

The stats are on Tiger's side if "getting close" is the goal, but if winning is the goal then I don't see it so much. I discount his 5 wins last year for two reasons. One, the latest in a string of injuries, this one to the all important lower back. Two, winning a regular tour event and winning a major are two different animals. 

post #43 of 171

You got a pretty good sense of humor, Ernest. ++++ for that!

post #44 of 171
When TIGER became tiger, he had a whole bunch of personal problems, father, marital shenanigans, then injury's, he spiralled out and lost focus! I think tiger could well become TIGER again! If he really wants to! I dont think he's lost the ability! But maybe has lost some of the determination and focus!
Thing is, while TIGER has been away, there's certain players who want to fill those shoes! And not just Ernest jones!!!
Look what happened when Rory ditched his fiancé and decided to focus on his golf!
And it's only a matter of time before Ricky fowler Takes some titles! I think TIGER could dominate again! But he's got up his game fast!! Before somebody else does!
post #45 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardballs View Post

When TIGER became tiger, he had a whole bunch of personal problems, father, marital shenanigans, then injury's, he spiralled out and lost focus! I think tiger could well become TIGER again! If he really wants to! I dont think he's lost the ability! But maybe has lost some of the determination and focus!
Thing is, while TIGER has been away, there's certain players who want to fill those shoes! And not just Ernest jones!!!
Look what happened when Rory ditched his fiancé and decided to focus on his golf!
And it's only a matter of time before Ricky fowler Takes some titles! I think TIGER could dominate again! But he's got up his game fast!! Before somebody else does!
Why do all of your sentences end in exclamation points!
post #46 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardballs View Post

When TIGER became tiger, he had a whole bunch of personal problems, father, marital shenanigans, then injury's, he spiralled out and lost focus! I think tiger could well become TIGER again! If he really wants to! I dont think he's lost the ability! But maybe has lost some of the determination and focus!
Thing is, while TIGER has been away, there's certain players who want to fill those shoes! And not just Ernest jones!!!
Look what happened when Rory ditched his fiancé and decided to focus on his golf!
And it's only a matter of time before Ricky fowler Takes some titles! I think TIGER could dominate again! But he's got up his game fast!! Before somebody else does!
But I don't even like Tiger's shoes, they look too much like sneakers.
post #47 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

billchao, with all due respect, since winning in 2008 Tiger hasn't once been able to put it all together.

 

Just because he hasn't, doesn't mean he's not going to.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

Rory has done so three times, all in rather convincing fashion.

 

Yes, he did. He's a very talented golfer. He's also inconsistent. He shot 80 in the final round of the 2011 Masters Tournament to blow a 4 stroke lead. His record in the majors starting from 2009 goes: T20 - T10 - T47 - T3 - CUT - CUT - T3 - T3 - T15 - 1 - T25 - T64 - T40 - CUT - T60 - 1 - T25 - T41 - CUT - T8 - T8 - T23 - 1

 

He's all over the board. Either he's lights out, or he's rather mediocre (and downright pedestrian, at times).

 

And really, I don't really consider the British Open win "convincing." He won by 2. A bad bounce or two, and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

Tiger has really only had two close calls where it looked like he might actually win in majors since 2008, and the last of those two occurrences was 4+ years ago.

 

Two top 10 finishes last year don't do it for ya? Tough crowd...

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post

The stats are on Tiger's side if "getting close" is the goal, but if winning is the goal then I don't see it so much.

 

Getting close means being in contention. You can't compete for a win if you're not close.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

I discount his 5 wins last year for two reasons. One, the latest in a string of injuries, this one to the all important lower back.

 

You've mentioned this elsewhere, too. I don't agree that you can just discount his 5 wins last year. He was healthy, that's what he can do when he's healthy. The knee is pretty important in golf, too.

 

What do you think about my assessment of Tiger vs Rory in the Masters Tournament, @9iron

post #48 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmac20 View Post

Why do all of your sentences end in exclamation points!
I like them!!!
And because I hate full stops! Period!
post #49 of 171

bill, I believe everyone on Tour is inconsistent using the metric you wrote two posts above. Tiger has 6 DNP's and 2 MC's since 2009, and his last four majors include a 40th and 69th. My point ios that in the last 25 majors since he won even when he gets close he manages to not be the old Tiger that wins it in the end. He's now more like everyone else in majors.

 

Sure, he had two top tens last year. He really wasn't close to winning either event. Hence my "getting close" reference above. When Tiger used to get close he often won, but now he does not win he hits a wall.

 

I did not see your Masters comp between Rory and Tiger.

post #50 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by billchao View Post

What do you think about my assessment of Tiger vs Rory in the Masters Tournament, @9iron


 

Obsessive?
post #51 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by billchao View Post

 

Given those, numbers, I'd give the edge to Tiger. But we're talking about the Masters for Rory, right? Well, he's played in 6 Masters Tournaments since 2009, with 4 top 25 finishes, 1 being in the top 10, and 1 missed cut. Percentage-wise, Rory has finished in the top 25 67% of the time, with 17% top 10 finishes and 17% missed cuts.

 

It's a really small sample, but Rory hasn't fared much better in the Masters than all of the other majors combined (his best finishes are at the PGA Championship). Given that, I'd still give the edge to Tiger.

 

In fact, since we're comparing Tiger to Rory, we can look at how Tiger did in the Masters Tournament since 2009. He's played in 5 events, with 4 top 25 finishes, all top 10. Tiger is sporting an 80% top 25 finish percentage (80% top 10), to Rory's 67% (17% top 10). When you look it like that, I'd say Tiger has a better chance to win the Masters than Rory.

 

I know it's a simple and undoubtedly flawed analysis, but I think it serves at least a little bit to give this discussion some objectivity. I'd like to think this might be a better way of looking at it that simply picking one player or the other somewhat arbitrarily. I don't know, what do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

bill, this is your Master's analysis, right?

 

Not sure this means all that much. That course suits Rory and if he is in the right frame of mind and his swing is working he can win there. Tiger is not the man he used to be, imo. The back injury is a bad injury. When he used to win at Augusta he was over powering the course. I don't see where is any more overpowering than any other top player right now, and he's probably less overpowering with this latest injury.

post #52 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

bill, I believe everyone on Tour is inconsistent using the metric you wrote two posts above. Tiger has 6 DNP's and 2 MC's since 2009, and his last four majors include a 40th and 69th. My point ios that in the last 25 majors since he won even when he gets close he manages to not be the old Tiger that wins it in the end. He's now more like everyone else in majors.

I'm not sure why you count DNP as part of his performance. He didn't play. When he does play, he's good (still great, really). Without doing any more research, I'm pretty sure Tiger is the benchmark for top tier consistency (47% top 10 finishes since 2009). Tiger is more like everyone else in the fact that his chances of winning have diminished from his previously legendary status, but don't be fooled into thinking that actually makes him like everyone else. He's still much more likely to win a major than say, Charles Howell III.

 

And you're ignoring Rory's 4 missed cuts to Tiger's 2.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

Sure, he had two top tens last year. He really wasn't close to winning either event. Hence my "getting close" reference above. When Tiger used to get close he often won, but now he does not win he hits a wall.

Tiger's 2013 major finishes: T4 - T32 - T6 - T40

Rory's 2013 major finishes: T25 - T41 - MC - T8

 

I'd argue that Tiger was closer to winning than Rory was.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

bill, this is your Master's analysis, right?

I'm talking about this:

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by billchao View Post
 

But we're talking about the Masters for Rory, right? Well, he's played in 6 Masters Tournaments since 2009, with 4 top 25 finishes, 1 being in the top 10, and 1 missed cut. Percentage-wise, Rory has finished in the top 25 67% of the time, with 17% top 10 finishes and 17% missed cuts.

 

It's a really small sample, but Rory hasn't fared much better in the Masters than all of the other majors combined (his best finishes are at the PGA Championship). Given that, I'd still give the edge to Tiger.

 

In fact, since we're comparing Tiger to Rory, we can look at how Tiger did in the Masters Tournament since 2009. He's played in 5 events, with 4 top 25 finishes, all top 10. Tiger is sporting an 80% top 25 finish percentage (80% top 10), to Rory's 67% (17% top 10). When you look it like that, I'd say Tiger has a better chance to win the Masters than Rory.

Based on recent history, I believe Tiger is more likely to win at Augusta than Rory.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

That course suits Rory and if he is in the right frame of mind and his swing is working he can win there.

The same could be said about dozens of players. Tiger included. Like I pointed out, history could argue otherwise.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

Tiger is not the man he used to be, imo. The back injury is a bad injury. When he used to win at Augusta he was over powering the course. I don't see where is any more overpowering than any other top player right now, and he's probably less overpowering with this latest injury.

Again, he will heal. He's not 100% ATM, but he will likely be by April 2015. Nobody needs to be overpowering to win a major.

 

Honestly, it's been fun having this discussion with you. Really, at the end of the day, I don't care about this all that much. I just wanted to try looking at this from a different perspective than what other people were offering, using some basic statistics. I've said from the beginning that my analysis was likely flawed, but I'm sticking with my conclusions. To each their own, I guess.

post #53 of 171
Quote:
Originally Posted by 9iron View Post
 

Not sure this means all that much. That course suits Rory and if he is in the right frame of mind and his swing is working he can win there. Tiger is not the man he used to be, imo. The back injury is a bad injury. When he used to win at Augusta he was over powering the course. I don't see where is any more overpowering than any other top player right now, and he's probably less overpowering with this latest injury.

 

The course suits Tiger pretty well too, seeing as how he's won there four times while Rory has won there zero times. And even when he's not winning, he's often finishing in the top ten. Rory, on the other hand… Missed the cut in 2010, and has a whopping ONE top-ten finish (a T8 this year).

 

Tiger, in the Masters…

1) Won by a boatload his first time playing as a pro.

2) Has never finished worse than T40 as a pro.

3) Has won four times.

4) Has finished in the top ten in 13 of the 17 times he's played as a pro (that's over 75%).

 

@billchao's point is that TIGER is more likely to win at Augusta National than Rory, based on the history and evidence. Heck just taking the last five each have played in:

 

Tiger: T6 T4 T4 T40 T4 (average: 11.6)

Rory: CUT T15 T40 T25 T8 (22 averaging only the four times he made the cut - 29.6 if you give him credit for T60 for the MC).

 

Again, those are the last five each played.

 

If, as you say, "that course suits Rory," then Tiger must own the joint, because it suits him a heckuva lot more. Heck, he's won the Masters at a higher rate than Rory's gotten inside the top ten!!!

post #54 of 171

Tiger.  This is an odds question.  If I say Rory, then I'm basically saying he has more than a four times better chance of winning The Masters than Tiger has of winning any major.  You can adjust those odds a bit because there's only one more major before they tee it up in Augusta next April.

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