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Next virgin European to win a Major

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 

Only the one firm is running a book, (and they don't enjoy a great reputation for laying a price) and I haven't been able to screen shot the entire market, but this is it. 

 

Any thoughts? One suspects this is the sort of market that could easily fall to unnamed outsider

 

post #2 of 15

As much as I hate to say it, I think Sergio's time is close. I think mentally he's ready to finally win one. At 20-1, Dubuisson's a good bargain.

 

I don't think Westwood will ever get one. I think he had a golden opportunity at the British last year and threw it away. He hasn't played well since. Scarred him.

post #3 of 15
A few years ago (when they were playing OWGR #1 hot potato) I would have said Westwood or Donald, but if I had to pick one now I'd probably go with Sergio.

Manassero at 20/1 isn't a bad deal though.
post #4 of 15

Can you bet on anyone *not* on that list? Because the contrarian in me says go against popular picks, someone like a Brendan de Jonge might pop out of nowhere.

post #5 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by nevets88 View Post

Can you bet on anyone *not* on that list? Because the contrarian in me says go against popular picks, someone like a Brendan de Jonge might pop out of nowhere.

Has Zimbabwe joined the EU and I just haven't heard? a3_biggrin.gif
post #6 of 15
Thread Starter 

If you'd seen this market 3-4 years ago Stenson would probably have been 33/1? 

 

A bit of me wonders if Colsearts isn't value then?

 

I'm seeing three types of players. 

 

1: Established known quantities who haven't won yet (and whom you suspect have had their chance). They form a significant part of the over-round, but if you're happy to say that they're all called Montgomerie, you can strike down nearly 50% of the field and some significant market leaders

 

2: Those who've shown potential, lost their way a bit, but could conceivably return to form (Stenson = Colsearts). Both were/ are strong straight hitters (never a bad trait to have onside) who made favourable early impressions and then dropped away. I suppose Kaymer might be another in that category. Once they're unburdened of expectation, then they slowly rebound

 

3: The unknown improver (much harder to spot) and more of these on the bit I couldn't screen shot. 

 

post #7 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by FarawayFairways View Post

If you'd seen this market 3-4 years ago Stenson would probably have been 33/1? 

A bit of me wonders if Colsearts isn't value then?

I'm seeing three types of players. 

1: Established known quantities who haven't won yet (and whom you suspect have had their chance). They form a significant part of the over-round, but if you're happy to say that they're all called Montgomerie, you can strike down nearly 50% of the field and some significant market leaders

2: Those who've shown potential, lost their way a bit, but could conceivably return to form (Stenson = Colsearts). Both were/ are strong straight hitters (never a bad trait to have onside) who made favourable early impressions and then dropped away. I suppose Kaymer might be another in that category. Once they're unburdened of expectation, then they slowly rebound

3: The unknown improver (much harder to spot) and more of these on the bit I couldn't screen shot. 



I like both Olesen and Wood at those odds.
post #8 of 15

Longshots have not been doing well the last few years in majors. Cream's been coming to the top. Gotta go back to Oosthuizen, I guess, to find the last true "shocker." So my guess is one of the guys high up on the list will cash in.

post #9 of 15
A few months ago I would've said Jonas Blixt hands down - he finished 4th at Oak Hill, then T2 at Augusta. Still don't get how he missed the cut at the US Open and the British. Right now, I gotta go with Sergio.
post #10 of 15
I wouldn't be surprised if Bjorn wins one during the twilight of his career-a la Darren Clarke. Good long shot bet I think. Sergio is almost definitely winning one soon. Mannassero is super young so not a bad bet either. I also like GFC or Freddie J at those odds.
post #11 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamo View Post

Has Zimbabwe joined the EU and I just haven't heard? a3_biggrin.gif

Ha ha. Absolutely true. I "reinterpreted" European to mean European PGA which is a stretch, yeah.
post #12 of 15

Give Joost Luiten 1-2 more years and he might have a chance. His performance and progress the last few years after coming back from his wrist injury is amazing. T26 in his first appearance at Augusta this year.

post #13 of 15
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisP View Post
 

Longshots have not been doing well the last few years in majors. Cream's been coming to the top. Gotta go back to Oosthuizen, I guess, to find the last true "shocker." So my guess is one of the guys high up on the list will cash in.

 

Yes, but this isn't really a play tomorrow market, it's very much futures one, and there is a bit of me that wouldn't mind seeing an option of 'none of those named' given that this eventuality could take place in 5-6 years time +. It's why I'd rule out the Westwood era, and probably down to Sergio too. Who was the last European to win their first major? Darren Clarke July 2011?

 

It probably does happen every 3 years these days, and is possibly due again soon though

post #14 of 15

Dubuisson is 2nd in the Euro points right now - he's got my vote

post #15 of 15

I would say Stenson,then Dubuisson

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