If you'd seen this market 3-4 years ago Stenson would probably have been 33/1?
A bit of me wonders if Colsearts isn't value then?
I'm seeing three types of players.
1: Established known quantities who haven't won yet (and whom you suspect have had their chance). They form a significant part of the over-round, but if you're happy to say that they're all called Montgomerie, you can strike down nearly 50% of the field and some significant market leaders
2: Those who've shown potential, lost their way a bit, but could conceivably return to form (Stenson = Colsearts). Both were/ are strong straight hitters (never a bad trait to have onside) who made favourable early impressions and then dropped away. I suppose Kaymer might be another in that category. Once they're unburdened of expectation, then they slowly rebound
3: The unknown improver (much harder to spot) and more of these on the bit I couldn't screen shot.