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2014 PGA Championship Discussion Thread - Page 4

post #55 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisP View Post
 

Hard to put $$$ on Rory with his odds 4-1. That's too low for my blood. I like looking for value. I'd rather wait to see where he stands after the first round and see if his odds drop and then maybe consider putting some change on him. As much as I hate him, I had to drop 5 bucks on Patrick Reed. I thought 80/1 was too good to pass up. Same with Sergio at 25-1.

I like Sergio given he seems to be peaking at 25:1 but my concern is his performance in past majors has been spotty.  If he had already won one, I'd feel better about putting some money on him.

post #56 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtogolf View Post
 

You're contradicting yourself here if you put money on Rory.  You voiced concern with Rory winning the PGA Championship because of the pressure he'd feel from winning the two previous events.  My point was each tournament is an independent event but you would look at past tournaments to establish trends.  Trends may indicate if the player going into a tournament is peaking or crashing.  Rory seems to be peaking so despite the potentially added pressure he still has one of the best chances of winning this week.

 

Actually,  I didn't express any concern at all. I said: "I'm not saying that McIlroy will or won't be affected by such pressure (which would have to be balanced against the already massive pressure of trying to win the major)", which is a different point.

 

So, no, I'm not really contradicting myself at all.  I was simply reacting to this statement (not by you, of course):

 

"Because the first two tournaments are in the bank. Done. Weeks ago. Other than indicating the sort of form Rory is in, they don't have any statistical bearing on next week's events."

 

I don't really think that's true, for the reason I've outlined: there are factors that are relevant to a golfer being able to to string together a series of consecutive wins simply by the fact that they're in a series -- you've called them 'trends' and I've no argument with that -- and therefore the third (or nth) event is not completely independent.

 

That point was a general one -- not specific to McIlroy -- and if I've understood you correctly, I don't really see that your view as you've expressed it is fundamentally different from mine: trends affect the nth tournament in the series (as do many, many other factors). Trends don't affect the nth coin toss, so that's a truly independent event in a way that the tournament isn't.

post #57 of 1750
Thread Starter 

Pic of the 18th hole

 

Gee, you think Jack Nicklaus designed this hole? ;-)

 

post #58 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamo View Post


Because the first two tournaments are in the bank. Done. Weeks ago. Other than indicating the sort of form Rory is in, they don't have any statistical bearing on next week's events. @newtogolf summed it up pretty well.


Wow. You have a completely different way to look at this.

post #59 of 1750
By when does Tiger have to decide?
post #60 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by colin007 View Post

By when does Tiger have to decide?

He has until he's supposed to tee off.

post #61 of 1750

Given the fact he still hasn't ruled himself out, my guess is it's not serious. If it were, I think doctors would have advised him immediately to pull out.

 

If I were a betting man, I think he shows up at Valhalla, plays a practice round tomorrow, and if he feels any pain, he'll pull out.

post #62 of 1750

If it was real bad, it seems he would've pulled out by now, yeah. He also may just be feeling it the next days to see if it gets better or not. Stupid to WD if the back turns out to be fine on Friday.
 

post #63 of 1750
Some pics from the practice round today


Sergio


BBN's J.B. Holmes


Stuart Cink

I also got some nice vids of JB teeing off and Jordan Speith on an approach shot.
post #64 of 1750
Also the local news is reporting that woods has put in for an extension to register today, he now has until Thursday to register.
post #65 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by atb5079 View Post


Wow. You have a completely different way to look at this.

Think of it this way: Rory isn't trying to win three straight events, he's trying to win the PGA. And given how well he's played lately, he's got as good a chance to do that as anyone. To think that if he had missed a putt or two here or there at Hoylake has any statistical bearing on what he's trying to do at Valhalla doesn't make any sense.

If you'd told Rory a month ago that he could choose from these options in preparation for the PGA:
  • You're going to play mediocre golf at Hoylake and Firestone,
  • You're going to play well at Hoylake and Firestone but not win, or
  • You're going to win at Hoylake and Firestone,

...he would pick the third one, no question about it.

Winning three times in a row is difficult because winning one time in a row is difficult, but that doesn't mean that winning last week is going to doom him for this week. Quite the opposite, I'd say, because it at least shows that he's in good form.
post #66 of 1750

PGATour.com used some stats to predict the winner: http://www.pgatour.com/statsreport/2014/08/05/stats-formula-picks-pga-championship-winner.html

 

Quote:

 Without further delay, here are the top players in our formula. The oddsmakers' favorite is also our stats formula favorite. That's just how the numbers crunched

 

Golfer Driving Distance Greens in Regulation Strokes gained-putting Total
1. Rory McIlroy 3 10 37 50
2. Jimmy Walker 19 29 7 55
3. Adam Scott 18 31 13 62
4. Sergio Garcia 48 4 15 67
5. Charley Hoffman 25 11 53 89
6. Keegan Bradley 14 64 24 102
7. Charles Howell III 10 14 90 114
8. Bubba Watson 1 23 98 122
8. Brendan Steele 20 39 70 129
10. John Senden 93 27 11 131
11. Graham DeLaet 15 3 119 137
12. Harris English 27 8 105 140
12. Hunter Mahan 42 51 48 141
14. Ryan Palmer 24 27 92 143
15. Jason Kokrak 8 81 58 147
post #67 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by billchao View Post

PGATour.com used some stats to predict the winner: http://www.pgatour.com/statsreport/2014/08/05/stats-formula-picks-pga-championship-winner.html
Jason Kokrak? Lol...Tiger requested an registration extension....interesting, although I don't know if it means much....
post #68 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJH999 View Post


Jason Kokrak?

 

He is my dark horse pick!!!!!!!!!!!!

post #69 of 1750
I will probably wake up tomorrow hearing Tiger's fate. I haven't been this nervous since Y2k in preschool.
post #70 of 1750
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJH999 View Post

I will probably wake up tomorrow hearing Tiger's fate. I haven't been this nervous since Y2k in preschool.

I'm becoming cynical now.  I feel like if he plays it's just going to be a rerun of last week.  If he's this iffy about deciding to play, he must not be 100%, and I can totally see either a poor showing or a mediocre showing, and another WD would not be that surprising.

 

I sure hope I'm wrong though.

 


Really interested in this 7th hole they have here ... "Players choice" they call it.  Two fairways to choose from off the tee.  A good drive into the left fairway gives you a shot at reaching the green in two from 200-220 ish, however the second shot is entirely over water.  A good drive into the right fairway leaves you 240-260ish out, however, it's all green between you and the green, with the water being all along the left side of the fairway.  Gonna be fun.

 

post #71 of 1750
I like the PGA coverage a lot more than the British Open. I like the feeling of being able to wake up early and watch some featured groups while laying in bed....
post #72 of 1750

The tee times and pairings have been announced:

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/pga-championship/tee-times.html

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