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FiveThirtyEight: Rory McIlroy Could Be A Bigger Threat To Jack Nicklaus Than Tiger Woods

post #1 of 8
Thread Starter 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/rory-mcilroy-could-be-a-bigger-threat-to-jack-nicklaus-than-tiger-woods/

 

Quote:
But what about McIlroy’s expectation at this point? Trying to model the long-run performance and behavior of outliers can be particularly difficult, because the other data isn’t really a good guide. Nonetheless, assuming McIlroy faces the same regression to the mean as the average golfer does after a hot start (about a 50 percent to 75 percent reduction in win rate for the rest of his career), my best estimate is that he should win around 12 majors — plus or minus six or eight.
post #2 of 8
Funny, that guy really went out on a limb with his math, so Rory could win 4 or 20. Nice work dude.
post #3 of 8

He could be a threat to Nicklaus, but he still has quite a ways to go before actually being considered a threat. How about another 9 or 10 majors under his belt before, let's say age 35 . Heck,  Woods is still a threat to Nicklaus's records. At this point, Mcllroy's future accomplishments are pure speculation. Nothing more. All it takes is a few changes in his personal life to derail his major, and tournament wins, which of course is pure speculation on my part....lol

post #4 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gunther View Post


Funny, that guy really went out on a limb with his math, so Rory could win 4 or 20. Nice work dude.


I think hes kind of joking here about how hard it is to predict this.

 

The meat of the article is that Rory is more likely to decline slower than expected .. than Woods is to break a 5 year streak without a major.

 

I could see a scenario where Rory beats Tiger's major record by being 80% of pre 2009 Tiger but keeping it up until 39/40. He needs good injury luck and a slower decline than normal. It's possible and I think that is the gist of the article.

post #5 of 8

What a coincidence ... read that article early this morning. I read Nate Silver when he wrote only politics for the NY Times. His predictions were uncannily correct. 

 

And now he has a newsy, sportsy website. Good stuff.

 

Will be interesting to see what Rors does next year. 

 

And Tiger....

post #6 of 8
Been down this road before. Rory was hot, won a few times and he was crowned the next Tiger. Then he blanks for nearly two years and people were calling him Rory Duval. Media can't make up their minds.
post #7 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave2512 View Post

Been down this road before. Rory was hot, won a few times and he was crowned the next Tiger. Then he blanks for nearly two years and people were calling him Rory Duval. Media can't make up their minds.

 

As long as they have something to write about, I don't think they're particularly worried about what it is they are writing.  

post #8 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmomcc View Post


I think hes kind of joking here about how hard it is to predict this.

The meat of the article is that Rory is more likely to decline slower than expected .. than Woods is to break a 5 year streak without a major.

I could see a scenario where Rory beats Tiger's major record by being 80% of pre 2009 Tiger but keeping it up until 39/40. He needs good injury luck and a slower decline than normal. It's possible and I think that is the gist of the article.
Tigers problem is a career that has stretched with serious intent from circa pre infant school
Given the nature and physical intensity of his swing his body has experienced twice the workload of the normal pro golfer and must be fast approaching the end of a great career
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