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Article on 5 statistical oddities from the 2014 PGA Tour season


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From golfdigest.com

http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2014/12/5-strategies-pros-use-that-cou.html

#1 is not surprising or odd.

By Luke Kerr-Dineen

Richie Hunt is a statistician of the Bill James ilk. He works of with tour pros like Daniel Summerhays, Ben Crane and Brian Gay by analyzing mounds of data and deducing from it strategies to help them play better. And every year, he turns his findings into a book called the "Pro Golf Synopsis".

Laying up on a par-5 or a par-4 should be considered the last option

The closer you are to the hole, the more likely you are to hit your ball into the hole. Even if you think you're really bad from 100 yards, you're still more likely to hit it closer to the hole from 100 yards than from 125 yards. That's true for golfers of all abilities

Tour players tend to be more accurate with their driver than their 3-wood off the tee.

The better drivers of the ball often split their misses closer to 50/50

Scores are typically lower in the morning than in the afternoon

Round 1 Scoring Average has the strongest statistical correlation to Tour success, followed by Round 2 Scoring Average

Scott

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From golfdigest.com

http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2014/12/5-strategies-pros-use-that-cou.html

#1 is not surprising or odd.

I think I read a similar article a few weeks ago. I remember seeing that about the driver being more accurate then the 3-wood. I was a little taken back, then I thought it makes sense in the way the clubs are made.

The better driver miss is interesting. I am wondering if that is because PGA Tour players have more neutral swing paths and slight face angle changes can go from a slight push to a push draw to a maybe a slight overdraw.

I can see morning being lower scores. Greens are usually softer and winds are usually down. Especially in areas like Florida.

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
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The first 4 don't seem odd to me at all.  Maybe the driver vs 3w accuracy thing in concept, but for me it's true so easy to believe.

the last one - meh, one can postulate all sorts of reasons for any of the rounds to be meaningful.  i'd say the winner is usually the one that has the lowest total score after 4 rounds..... :whistle:

Bill - 

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"Tour players tend to be more accurate with their driver than their 3-wood off the tee."

One factor could be that 3 wood is used where the hole is very tight or doesn't fit the player's eye.  Harder to hit the fairway, even with a 3 wood.  Also, guys that are extremely accurate hit driver all the time while players that are wild go to the 3 wood more often.  So a wild guy with a 3 wood probably misses the fairway more often than an accurate guy with driver.

Brian Kuehn

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The first 4 don't seem odd to me at all.  Maybe the driver vs 3w accuracy thing in concept, but for me it's true so easy to believe.

the last one - meh, one can postulate all sorts of reasons for any of the rounds to be meaningful.  i'd say the winner is usually the one that has the lowest total score after 4 rounds.....

I think it is more likely the fact that if you have a bad first or second round you do not make the cut and therefore get $0, whereas by the third and fourth round you have already assured yourself of at least some degree of success already by making the cut.

But then again, what the hell do I know?

Rich - in name only

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"Tour players tend to be more accurate with their driver than their 3-wood off the tee."

One factor could be that 3 wood is used where the hole is very tight or doesn't fit the player's eye.  Harder to hit the fairway, even with a 3 wood.  Also, guys that are extremely accurate hit driver all the time while players that are wild go to the 3 wood more often.  So a wild guy with a 3 wood probably misses the fairway more often than an accurate guy with driver.

This makes more sense to me than a driver which is both less lofted and longer length shaft being more accurate than a 3 wood.

Butch

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Richie's mini books are very good and well worth the $10 dollars or so it takes to buy it. It is not as complete as LSW, but still a good read.

Michael

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From golfdigest.com

http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2014/12/5-strategies-pros-use-that-cou.html

#1 is not surprising or odd.

Good article. Thanks for posting.

I've never been convinced of the value of a one-way miss vs a smaller 50/50 dispersion. A small one direction miss could still be ideal, I guess.

Kevin

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Note: This thread is 3404 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

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