JB Holmes Lays up on 72nd Hole at Torrey Pines

***iacas*** · February 10, 2015

JB Holmes laid up, hit his wedge to 22' or so, two-putted, and lost in a four-person playoff (he was the last player to join the playoff).

Discuss pros/cons, what you think was the best play/choice, etc.

**dkolo** · February 10, 2015

JB Holmes laid up, hit his wedge to 22' or so, two-putted, and lost in a four-person playoff (he was the last player to join the playoff).

Discuss pros/cons, what you think was the best play/choice, etc.

Michael Collins said in his chat yesterday that Holmes lacked a club for that yardage, so that's why Holmes laid up. I don't know if that's speculation on his part or if he talked to Holmes (I DVRed the tournament and CBS inexplicably cut out after the first playoff hole, so I missed all the interviews, not to mention the deciding playoff hole on 16, grrr). Given that, and how things nearly broke bad on Jason Day in his go-for-it attempt, it's probably defensible.

I don't care about strategy much in this context, though. As a viewer wanting to see exciting TV with the best in the world, I wanted everyone to take a crack at it, and I was rooting against him the rest of the way after that.

**saevel25** · February 10, 2015

One of the longest hitters on tour. I would go for the green. Unless he had a bad lie. If he was in the fairway and had a club that could reach pin high to the back of the green he should have gone for it. I can see risk adversion, but I like the odds of getting up and down for birdie over full wedge shot to 22 feet. That's like 3% birdie chance on that putt versus 50% from a bunker or 60% from the rough around the green. I rather go for the win outright. If you have a shot and control of your own destiny seize it.

**dkolo** · February 10, 2015

One of the longest hitters on tour. I would go for the green. Unless he had a bad lie. If he was in the fairway and had a club that could reach pin high to the back of the green he should have gone for it.

I can see risk adversion, but I like the odds of getting up and down for birdie over full wedge shot to 22 feet. That's like 3% birdie chance on that putt versus 50% from a bunker or 60% from the rough around the green.

I rather go for the win outright. If you have a shot and control of your own destiny seize it.

If I recall correctly, on the 73rd hole (the playoff) on the same hole, Holmes had to lay up again and hit it stiff with his wedge, about 3-4 feet. Practice makes perfect, haha.

**Club Rat** · February 10, 2015

He almost made the putt for the win. Playing it safe may have been the right choice if he wins playoff.

If he would have tried to get home, who knows.

Bad things usually happen even to the pros, when it's all or possible trouble.

I'm picturing "Tin Cup", if he goes for the green.

Club Rat

**Gunther** · February 10, 2015

I was ok with the decision because of the danger around that green. Wind was picking up so he might have felt he didn't have the club to play a high shot that would have checked for him (he had just seen Glover knock it into the drink). These guys have so much confidence from 90 yds, he decided to keep himself in the tournament and possibly win outright. Wasn't what Phil would have done but he's JB Holmes.

**jamo** · February 10, 2015

Playing it safe may have been the right choice if he wins playoff. If he would have tried to get home, who knows.

If that's the way you're thinking of it, I'm not sure you get the point. A decision is right or wrong based on the decision itself, not the outcome. Holmes made the decision that would, on average, yield him a worse outcome.

***iacas*** · February 10, 2015

Holmes made the decision that would, on average, yield him a worse outcome.

Agreed.

Kyle Stanley laid up and made 8, after all. From 75-100 yards last year, from the fairway, JB Holmes averaged 18'1" or something. That's not "makable putt" range. Two putting or getting up and down is a higher percentage play.

**Club Rat** · February 10, 2015

Probably, but if it was an early round, or hole, then yes!

Playing the final hole and needing a birdie to win, he was cautious or better safe than sorry.

It was the 72 hole, everything is on the line.

I think he played the right choice.

**14ledo81** · February 10, 2015

Probably, but if it was an early round, or hole, then yes!
Playing the final hole and needing a birdie to win, he was cautious or better safe than sorry.

It was the 72 hole, everything is on the line.
I think he played the right choice.

Holmes made the decision that would, on average, yield him a worse outcome.

@Club Rat he decision that would yield a worse outcome is the right choice?

**Club Rat** · February 10, 2015

He needed a par. Period.

Day was damn lucky, he went over the green, then the ball didn't go in the water.

Day played it outstanding, almost chipped in, on the first playoff hole.

How can you think "the decision that would, on average , yield him a worse outcome.

These guys are a little better than AVERAGE !!!!

For amateur golfers, or better yet, the weekend players, then many would not have a decision or choice.

How was it the worst outcome. It's golf !!!

**mvmac** · February 10, 2015

JB made the wrong decision, should have gone for it. He said he was on a downslope,in between clubs and tends to hit it left from that lie. With the grand stands being there, he can hit it long left and get a drop. Better chance to get it up and down from over the green or in one of the bunkers than from 76 yards.

To quote a really great book called Lowest Score Wins , " The strongest scoring correlation in golf is this: the closer a shot is to the hole before it is struck, the closer it is likely to be when it comes to rest."

He needed a par. Period.

He needed birdie to win. Laying up makes it more likely he'll make par.

**Club Rat** · February 10, 2015

JB made the wrong decision, should have gone for it. He said he was on a downslope,in between clubs and tends to hit it left from that lie. With the grand stands being there, he can hit it long left and get a drop. Better chance to get it up and down from over the green or in one of the bunkers than from 76 yards.

To quote a really great book called Lowest Score Wins , "The strongest scoring correlation in golf is this: the closer a shot is to the hole before it is struck, the closer it is likely to be when it comes to rest."

I agree with you guys whole hearted.

But, it was just a moment in golf, which he decided what was best for him.

Look at the rub of the green which occurred to Harris ( ball came to rest against the ruff cut) pretty much screwed his chances.

If he tried to get close as possible, maybe the outcome would be good, or maybe not.

It still was the final hole, he needed par.

**saevel25** · February 10, 2015

He needed a par. Period. Day was damn lucky, he went over the green, then the ball didn't go in the water. Day played it outstanding, almost chipped in, on the first playoff hole. How can you think "the decision that would, [COLOR=FF0000] on average [/COLOR], yield him a worse outcome. These guys are a little better than AVERAGE !!!! For amateur golfers, or better yet, the weekend players, then many would not have a decision or choice. How was it the worst outcome. It's golf !!!

We're not talking about average golfers. His own stats support not laying up. He could take water out of play, and worse be in the bunker which has a higher chance of birdie that laying up where he did. I get if he was scared or losing, but that is a fault because he wasn't winning.

**Club Rat** · February 10, 2015

You guys are driving me to drink, I'm going to grab a beer and think about my next argument "why he made a choice which was the worst outcome"

Where's that "stats - crystal ball" which enlightens a golfer to make every right decision.

**nevets88** · February 10, 2015

If Johnny Miller were announcing he might have said going for it, it's birdie/eagle option bogey, laying up birdie option par. Or something like that. My memory is fuzzy.

If I were to call it, Johnny Miller style, going for it in 2, it's birdie birdie birdie birdie option par par par par par par vs birdie birdie option par par par par par par par par or basically what @jamo said. :-)

**joekelly** · February 10, 2015

Unless flag more than what, 280 yrds off, how can you say 'doesn't have the club'? I thought these guys were the best and could make the shot as needed. Use the 3 wood and choke down, play ball forward for more height; whatever it takes.

Old story of some Amateur contending on final day at Augusta, going for the green and the win but plops ball in water. Said after the match, 'I did not get here by being timid'.

**Gunther** · February 10, 2015

As it happens, obviously, it was the wrong decision. Stats in this case are immaterial; there aren't stats that depict the ball on a downhill lie from that precise distance, when your partner just dunked one on the 72nd hole, needing birdie to win. I would hazard a guess that given the exact circumstances, 90% of the PGA pros would have layed up. There really are only a few real risk-takers out there and generally it's those with a bunch of wins under their belt so these circumstances don't cause them to wet their pants.

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JB Holmes Lays up on 72nd Hole at Torrey Pines

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