When to go for it vs when to lay up

First, allow me to tell a little bit of my story before I get into the question.

I've been playing golf on a pretty regular basis for about 10 years and for about 5 years before that, I'd play a few rounds a year. Obviously, during the 5 years, my game didn't improve much, but over the last 10, my shot has started to improve and over the last 2 years, it has improved a lot. My technique has improved and with it, my distance has increased. I have 2 holes specifically that make me think of this question.

The first hole is hole #8 at my home course. It's a 427 yard par 4 that's you can basically play dead straight. The only trouble on the hole is a creek right in front of the green and a greenside bunker to the right of the green. The bunker doesn't concern me, but the creek does because even though the creek itself isn't that wide, the way the banks are on each side, you have about a 45 yard wide area that you can't land in because it will all go down to the creek. When you tee off, the hole goes uphill slightly and then back downhill. Due to the downhill potion, I usually drive it about 280-290 on this particular hole and I'm usually in the middle of the fairway or along the right side of the fairway. So my 2nd shot is usually about 130-150 out, usually closer to 150.

The 2nd hole is #7 at another local course that I play sometimes, but not all that often. It's pretty similar in layout to the first hole I described, but it's got a slight dogleg right and if you overshoot the fairway on the left side, you have no chance at all of going at the green with your 2nd shot because trees will be blocking your shot and you'll be too close to the trees to try to go over them, but too far away from the green to try to go under them. There is also a huge pond in front of the green and a creek that runs behind the green. I usually end up about 150 out on this hole as well, but I'm usually closer to the left side of the fairway, flirting with those trees, but not so much that they are actually blocking my angle to the green.

Now, I know that both greens are makeable with my 2nd shot, but I'm still inconsistent enough, especially when I have what I feel is a tough shot, that I have probably a 30-35% chance of hitting one fat and it ending up in the creek, or I try to overpower it to make sure I get across and pull my head as a result and I usually end up topping it then and it just rolls 45 yards or so. So basically, in each instance, I figure I have about a 65-70% chance of hitting a shot capable of making it across. So because of that, I've been laying up (one time I hit my layup too well and ended up in the water anyway lol), which I believe is the smart move for me, but both situations are still a dangerous shot across the water, for me at least, after the layup.

So, my question is, how sure do you feel you have to be of a shot before you go for it? This is just a friendly round I'm talking about with friends and coworkers so basically the only real pressure is just wanting to be able to compete with them instead of them blowing me away.

Hole 8 sounds like it is too long for you if you don't have a reliable enough 150 yard club? Hole 7 sounds like a layup with a 140 club. I'd rather take a scramble opportunity over a potential of the ball rolling off into the creek behind.

If I were playing them, which are very similar to two holes I played back east last week, I would play my average ~245 off the tee which would leave me with a 6i approach shot on number 8. I carry that club 175. Hole 7 would leave me ~190 (add 40 yards to your number) back if you average 285 off the tee, which is basically a 5i for me with a rolling layup. If I drive farther than my average then I'd take less club on the approach.

@mdlee3 ,  Sounds like you need to read "Lowest Score Wins".  It lays it out (the decision making process) pretty well.

Weigh the difference between scoring a 5 or a 7 ( or higher), that's my decision making process...guy that taught me to play told me to always opt for the shot that gives you best opportunity to avoid Double or Triple. Can't say I always do that but I am still learning.

Agree with @14ledo81 !

I'm a little confused in your setup.  You claim a 21 handicap and talk about feeling super inconsistent even from 150 yards even though with your driver distance that can't be more than an 8i, 7i MAX.  And inconsistent not in whether you'll hit the green a huge percentage of the time, but inconsistent like you don't even feel you'll make good contact 50% of the time.  But then you talk about your typical drives they sound WAY more consistent, and almost as long, as mine, even though my handicap is much lower and I'm pretty long for an amateur and I'd never consider not going for pretty much any green from 150.

I'll answer assuming you're simply describing your drives in the cases when you do happen to hit a good to decent drive that gives you a possibly reasonable length open look at the green.

1st hole I'd just say go for it but aim for the left edge of the green.  If you go left, you've still got an up and down.  If you go right, you'll probably be on the green or in the bunker.

2nd hole, with the lake in front, it seems more likely you might be right laying up offers the lower expected/average score.  But it depends on how long the lake is and your chances of not hitting it in on a mishit on your 3rd shot as well.  If the lake's 50 yards long, are your chances of not messing up the 2nd shot and then hitting the green with the 3rd shot and giving yourself a likely bogey really high enough that they overcome, in the average score with that approach, the times when you'll successfully clear the lake and either have a 2 putt for par or a much shorter up and down chance?  You're expected score hitting 3 from a bit off the green is of course much lower than your expected score hitting 3 from 60 yards out across a lake.

Point is just that you should try to honestly assess your chances of various mishits/misses and your likely scores from each approach.  None of us know your game well enough to do that calculation for you.  Just remember that we all tend to over-remember our worst (and very best) shots, but not remember our average shots so much.  So be careful not to over-estimate your chances of hitting it into the water when going for the green.

If I hit both my first and 2nd shots well on #8, I usually end up towards the back of the green. Maybe not on it, but I'm generally somewhere around the back half of the green even if it's to the left or right. It's that 30-35% chance I figure I have of ending up in the hazard if I don't hit it well.

On hole #7, with the pond in front and the creek in back, I do feel the correct 2nd shot is to layup from the distance I'm shooting simply because there isn't a lot of room for error. Going long is just as bad as going short on that hole. For #8, the temptation is there more I believe simply because there isn't really any danger if I go long, it's just a matter of actually going long lol.

I would gladly read the book.

This isn't a bad rule of thumb.  Not to logroll for LSW, but one thing laid out nicely there is to sharpen this a bit and try to think about lowest expected score.  Like if you play the shot that minimizes your chances of double or worse, maybe you almost never hit par and still mess up bad enough to hit double sometimes.  But there might be another option where you might hit double a bit more often but you hit par fairly often, so your average score is actually lower despite the more frequent doubles.

If you are hitting your Driver 290 into the middle (or sometimes right side) of the fairway, but aren't confident enough to shoot at the green from 130, I think the obvious answer here is you need to sharpen up your ball striking with your short irons.  Laying up on the first hole example sounds kinda silly.  You said you are usually 130-150 away, and usually hitting from the middle of the fairway.  From that distance you should be aiming your 8 iron or 9 iron to the middle of the green and taking a nice smooth swing.  I'm not sure why you would be overswinging and hitting it fat into the creek.  Seems like you have plenty of distance to your game.

As a rule, the closer you are to the hole after each shot, the lower your score will be.  So I don't see much point in laying up on a hole like that.  Figure out where your usual miss is, and then play away from that area.  If you always hit short right, take an extra club and aim for the left center of the green.

G*d hates coward!

You always go for it!

I'm sorry, but you cannot lay up from even 150 yards out, it just isn't an option.  I would say before you play these holes again you need to go to the driving range and just take your 7,8,9 irons and see which one you can consistently hit 150 yards...for me it is a little bit choked down smooth 9 iron.  When you say you are chunking the ball or whatever, that to me says that you are scared of the water and thus trying to swing as hard as you can to get over it. <--- DONT DO THAT...get a bucket of balls and see which club gets you the 150 that you need.  Don't aim at the flag, just aim to the middle (fat) part of the green and a nice smooth swing will get you there.  I would bet you can take a 7 iron, choke down on it and take a 70ish% swing (kind of like a knock down shot) will get you there much more than your current rate.  Laying up from 150 yards just doesn't sound right...might need some time to hit the range for a bit...

Yeah I was answering taking as a given he feels not confident even making good contact with the club he uses from 150.  But I agree, that seems a ridiculous yardage to lay up from.  I mean, I've played with some really old guys who drive it 180 and hitting a forced, say, 130 yard carry is just a bad idea.  But if you're putting drives out to 270 or 280, in general it's ridiculous to lay up from 150 with an 8i or whatever.

In my opinion, if you are considering laying up from 150 in from the middle of the fairway, you are not yet good enough to be so concerned over your score. If you are laying up on holes like this in order to, say, shoot under 100, then are you really accomplishing anything? I could go shoot a round of under 100 only using a 7 iron but what would be the fun in that? A real layup vs. go for it conundrum exists when you would have to "hit a perfect shot" to clear the water from one of your longest clubs or instead hit a 6 iron straight down the fairway. For example. If I am looking at 235 to clear water and the green is 255 away, I could theoretically hit my 3 wood over the water and onto the green. But if I only have a 20% chance of success doing that, then the safe play would be to hit my 5 iron straight down the fairway. I understand being conservative but your situation would be so conservative that your game wouldn't really resemble the game of golf anymore. There is just a point that you have to take your lumps until you improve. Say you are on a 145 yard par 3 with water in front of the green. Would you seriously hit a sand wedge 70 yards just so you would have a better chance of getting over the water? In your case, score shouldn't be a concern at this point. You have to be able to at least make basic golf shots before being worried about score.

These questions can be looked at from a probabililty perspective.  Reminds me of figuring out poker decisions.

I have a hole that I've been toying with how to play off the tee.  There is a diagonal lateral hazard that runs across the fairway.

Scenario 1 - I lay up with an iron to the left of the hazard and if successful I would have 155 yards left to the green but still have to cross the hazard.

Scenario 2 - I go for it with driver, If successful I have 120 to the green.  If not successful, I'm in the hazard and can drop on the side of the hole so I don't have to cross the hazard again.

(This is a bit simplified, and like poker, it's not an exact science, you have to use your judgement and make assumptions.)  Based on some assumptions, the calculation looks like this:

Based on these assumptions, in the long run for this hole, I'm better off going for it with the driver.

Part of improving at golf is believing in yourself.  Laying up from 150 just sets a poor tone for your game in general.  Get your 150 club and swing away and don't be afraid of that water.  Realistically, if you are laying up from 150, how close are you really getting it from 70 yards out.  Hit the shot and if you make it, it just builds confidence for the next time.  You are psyching yourself out before you even hit a ball.

Well said.

He might also consider aiming for back left of the green if there isn't much trouble long (relative to the creek). Odd...drives like a scratch+ player, but expected distance dispersion from 150 is +/- 20+ yards?

If you lack certainty you can make the shot from 150 yards does that mean you have greater certainty from shorter distances?  I'd typically use a 7i or 8i from 150 yards out and I'm just as confident I can hit those clubs as I am my PW and GW so I'm not sure how laying up would help you.

My problem on #8 would be completely different because I'd likely hit my driver 240 and leave myself 190 - 200 yards which would either require I hit my 3h perfectly or layup.  Given the water hazard I'd probably lay up and try to give myself an 80 yard approach shot into the green.