Phil missed the cut (I think I underestimated his injury). Luke Donald, my dark horse pick (over which I got grief because he's ranked 9th in the world) missed the cut. My biggest surprise, Alan Doyle making the cut, shot 81, 86.

I am such an idiot.

"I think some sort of form coming into the competition is essential."

Suggest you go back over the pre Pinehurst form of Michael Campbell.

Incidentally after he scored a good first round there I picked he'd a good chance to win.
To me the course appeared to have a linksy feel about it around the greens and when he's good he's very very good on linksy type courses and sometimes the real thing.
If Oakmont is as linksy around the greens in particular, as some suggest.
Keep your eye on Campbell

Winner: Jim Furyk. Drives the ball straight and is experienced in this sort of melting pot. Furyk loves to be in contention and I think this course will suit him more than others.

Dark Horse: Tricky, take your pick really from this bunch, I think some sort of form coming into the competition is essential. Sean O'Hair, Scott Verplank, Adam Scott, Woody Austin. Austin won in great style last week and is very much a confidence golfer, could be a kenny perry story.

Biggest Disappointment: Tiger!! Must drive straight here and tiger is all over the place. I know the course is wider now but if you do not hie the fairways then you easily make doubles!

Suprise: The underdog. I fancy the leaderboard to be congested by real outsiders. Expect the likes of Woods, Els and Goosen to be hovering few places above the cut!

Afterthoughts: I have been on good predicting form of late, I am hot!

1. Winner: Adam Scott. He's too good statistically and has been hovering around the top virtually every week this year. I think he's very hungry and maybe the best all around player at this moment. Good weather will steady him. Score 284.

2. Dark Horse: Steve Stricker. Sort of a Verplank-type player, although maybe a bit hungrier and with more to prove. Fairly accurate player, very good putter, and playing well of late. A recent choke when in contention a few weeks ago doesn't bode well, but that's why he's a dark horse.

3. Biggest disappointment: I'm breaking the rules and listing 2 players. My gut is to say Els. I agree with Jack that he seems to be going south, with a resolve that's more bamboo than steel, the older he gets. I'll mention that an industry insider who is somewhat close to Ernie vehemently disagrees with me on this, stating Els' game is fantastic right now and that a big resurgence is iminent. We'll see. The other disappointment for me is Sergio. The guy should win or at least be in the stretch run, as long and straight as he strikes the ball. But he always seems to wilt.

4. Largest surprise: Boy, this is a hard one. I'm guessing it's the USGA, which will be roundly praised for a testing but fair Open set up. The forecast for mild weather should help them keep things consistent.

5. Afterthoughts: With all the rancor over 350 yard drives, I would love to see someone like Villegas or Wetterich or Howell III leave the driver in the bag and win with 2 irons off all of the tees, but I have a feeling they won't be brave enough to try it.

Cheers!! JP