The Golf Channel’s<\/a> excellent website (which breaks out the tournament-by-tournament stats while PGATour.com doesn’t!).<\/p>\nOnce I had all of those numbers in a spreadsheet, I was able to calculate each player’s 40-30-20-10 ranking.<\/p>\n
FBR Open<\/strong>
\nMost of you already know that Aaron Baddeley won this tournament by playing incredible golf, shooting rounds of 65-70-64-64. Not only did his scores show up well, he did really well in the putting stats. For the tournament Aaron averaged 26 putts per round. I can’t remember the last time I had less than 30 putts in one round!!<\/p>\nNow take in the graph below. As you can tell, Dave’s formula has done another outstanding job of ‘predicting’ the finish based on how well they fared in each of the statistical categories. I will get to prediction vs. results in a minute.<\/p>\n
![\"FBR](\"\/b\/imgs\/numbers_game\/mosher_40302010_fbr.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
At a closer look at the one real anomaly in the graph we find Fred Funk. Fred finished the tournament in a tie for eighteenth. This really isn’t that big of a surprise to me at least because he really didn’t putt all that well. When you hit as many greens in regulation as he did (ranked 44th) and putt as poorly as he did (63rd), those strokes will sneak up on you rather quickly.<\/p>\n
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am<\/strong>
\nNext we saw the pros play at hallowed Pebble Beach (along with Spyglass and Poppy Hills). This is the event where Mickelson looked to be back in control of his mental state for the first time since the disaster at Winged Foot. Philly Mick shot rounds of 65-67-70-66 to win by five strokes over Kevin Sutherland.<\/p>\nThis is exactly what I would picture this graph to look like just by the little paragraph above. Dave’s formula is again just about right on the money.<\/p>\n
![\"FBR](\"\/b\/imgs\/numbers_game\/mosher_40302010_att.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
The only real anomaly in this bunch would be a tie for sixth finisher, Corey Pavin. I’m really not sure how to explain this one other than Corey really didn’t do exceptionally well in either of the putting categories.<\/p>\n
Nissan Open<\/strong>
\nThe week leading up to Tiger’s mental lapse at the WGC Match Play event had us over at Riviera for the Nissan Open. This event saw one of the young guns on tour come through with a win by shooting rounds of 69-65-69-65. This young gun is Charles Howell III.<\/p>\nIt did take a playoff for Mr. Howell to win for the first time in 2007, but he did so in what I am calling the perfect blend of statistics. Let’s let the graph speak for itself on this one.<\/p>\n
![\"FBR](\"\/b\/imgs\/numbers_game\/mosher_40302010_nissan.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
So Why is it so Effective?<\/strong>
\nWhat this really all comes down to is where players are able to score the most. That is undisputedly on the greens. If a player is lighting it up on the greens, more often than not that player will be near the top of the leaderboard.<\/p>\nThere can be exceptions to that, of course. For example, when a player is spraying them so badly off the tee they are taking out of bounds penalties on every hole, their stats will be a little skewed. But that doesn’t happen frequently on the PGA Tour, and isn’t really worth worrying about.<\/p>\n
All in all, however, I find Dave has done a masterful job at creating this formula, and I hope I can only learn more from it as each column passes.<\/p>\n
Predicting Tournament Outcomes Using the 40-30-20-10 Rule<\/strong>
\nNow this really is where you put the money where your mouth is. My goal for my next article is to publish a prediction for the following tournament based on a slightly modified 40-30-20-10 Rule. What I hope to accomplish out of this is to create a mathematical formula that can out predict The Golf Channel’s WinZone before a tournament starts. As my last article on the WinZone states, The Golf Channel claims their WinZone formula predicts the winner of the tournament after the first round 18% of the time. We will see if Mr. Koster’s formula can exceed those seemingly low expectations…<\/p>\nThis article was written by guest author Harry Solomon, an active member of our forum<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"My predecessor, Dave Koster, came up with a math formula which weighed some important stats. This week, I put his formula to the test.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the_numbers_game"],"yoast_head":"\n
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![\"The](\"\/b\/imgs\/numbers_game\/tng_title.gif\")
I am still somewhat new around here, but I know good numbers when I see them. No I’m not talking about how dominating Tiger Woods is in Official World Golf Ranking points or how Charles Howell III is leading the way in the FedEx Cup.<\/p>\n