{"id":2011,"date":"2007-06-12T08:00:15","date_gmt":"2007-06-12T12:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thesandtrap.com\/columns\/the_numbers_game\/par_is_a_good_score"},"modified":"2007-11-07T14:48:59","modified_gmt":"2007-11-07T18:48:59","slug":"par_is_a_good_score","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thesandtrap.com\/b\/the_numbers_game\/par_is_a_good_score","title":{"rendered":"Par is a Good Score"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"TheThe U.S. Open is notorious for its idea of par as a standard. The courses that host the tournament are usually set up to be quite penal. “Par is a good score” you’ll hear pros say, and this year’s event at Oakmont Country Club outside of Pittsburgh, PA is looking no different.<\/p>\n

The typical U.S. Open course has pinched fairways, long holes, super-fast, super-firm undulating greens, and the nastiest, thickest, juiciest rough you’ll ever want to see.<\/p>\n

And yet the U.S. Open typically plays to about even par, and is actually trending lower. Let’s have a look.
\n
\nThe Trend<\/strong>
\nOver time, the occasional flukes (like Tiger Woods’ 2000 performance at Pebble Beach) are averaged out by the, well, average. If we plot all U.S. Open scores from 1945 to 2006 with a trend line, we notice one fairly important thing: the average score in relation to par is going down<\/em>:<\/p>\n

\"U.S.<\/p>\n

Wow. I’ll bet that’s not what you were expecting, was it? Here’s the hard data:<\/p>\n

Year       Score       To Par\r\n----       -----       ------\r\n2006        285          +5\r\n2005        280           E\r\n2004        276          -4\r\n2003        272          -8\r\n2002        277          -3\r\n2001        276          -4\r\n2000        272         -12\r\n1999        279          -1\r\n1998        280           E\r\n1997        276          -4\r\n1996        278          -2\r\n1995        280           E\r\n1994        279          -5\r\n1993        272          -8\r\n1992        285          -3\r\n1991        282          -6\r\n1990        280          -8\r\n1989        278          -2\r\n1988        278          -6\r\n1987        277          -3\r\n1986        279          -1\r\n1985        279          -1\r\n1984        276          -4\r\n1983        280          -4\r\n1982        282          -6\r\n1981        273          -7\r\n1980        272          -8\r\n1979        284           E\r\n1978        285          +1\r\n1977        278          -2\r\n1976        287          +3\r\n1975        277          -3\r\n1974        287          +7\r\n1973        279          -5\r\n1972        290          +2\r\n1971        280           E\r\n1970        281          -7\r\n1969        281          +1\r\n1968        275          -5\r\n1967        275          -5\r\n1966        278          -2\r\n1965        282          +2\r\n1964        278          -2\r\n1963        293          +9\r\n1962        283          -1\r\n1961        281          +1\r\n1960        280          -4\r\n1959        282          +2\r\n1958        283          +3\r\n1957        282          +2\r\n1956        281          +1\r\n1955        287          +7\r\n1954        284          +4\r\n1953        283          -5\r\n1952        281          +1\r\n1951        287          +7\r\n1950        287          +7\r\n1949        286          +2\r\n1948        276          -8\r\n1947        282          -2\r\n1946        284          -4<\/pre>\n
The trend line predicts a final score at this year’s U.S. Open of -4.5. Sports bettors take note: that should be your true over\/under number from a statistical analysis. Of course, sports betting doesn’t work that way, and the last time I checked, the over\/under was about +3.<\/p>\n
The trend line, it should be noted, is just that: a line. If the USGA has changed their policy, say, since 2000, it would be far too early to notice a shift. After all, there are 55 years of scores on one side of 2000 and only six points on the other side. Tiger’s 15-shot victory at Pebble Beach may serve to flatten the trend line over time, but it likely won’t have much effect while Tiger is still playing the game.<\/p>\n
The Play<\/strong>
\nAlso obtained from all of these numbers was the average score for a U.S. Open win since 1946. Looking at the graph above, I would have never guessed the average: -1.6. Rounding up (or is it down?), we can say two under par is the average winning score for a U.S. Open since 1945. If the USGA’s intent is to play a golf tournament at about even par, they’ve done a pretty good job.<\/p>\n
I also took a look at the winning score mode. The mode – the most common number in a data set – is not always the best statistic, but sometimes it can be revealing. The most common, popular, or prevalent score in winning a U.S. Open since 1945 is four under par (-4), or one under par per round over four rounds of golf.<\/p>\n
The Conclusion<\/strong>
\nI like the idea of playing courses with the hardest conditions possible for the major championships. It really separates the boys from the men. For all of us amateurs, par is what we strive for, and it’s nice to see the pros do the same once in awhile. It’s nice to see the pros struggle from the rough when they miss the fairway like we do. It’s a nice change of pace to see all the scores very close to par.<\/p>\n
Since 1945, the average score has been -1.6. Since 2000, it’s actually been a bit lower: -2.3. Will Oakmont serve, as Winged Foot did last year, in pushing the average a teeny bit higher, or will it relent and yield a sub-par total? We’ll have to wait and see.<\/p>\n
As an Introduction<\/strong>
\nThank you for read this week’s The Numbers Game<\/em>. My name is Harry Solomon, and I am a new staff member here at The Sand Trap<\/em>. I’m taking the reigns from Dave Koster, which is a scary endeavor. Even with my size 13s, I have big shoes to fill.<\/p>\n
I encourage you to get in touch with me if you have ideas you’d like to see explored in future editions of TNG<\/em>. Or, as always, post a comment below. I’d love to hear from you.<\/p>\n
This article was written by guest author Harry Solomon, an active member of our forum<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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