Random Musings

**DeadMan** · May 2, 2020

34 minutes ago, iacas said:

People who have died of heart attacks are classified as COVID deaths. Etc.

You have a source on this? Because everything I’ve read says that the death count for COVID-19 is an undercount:

PolitiFact - COVID-19 skeptics say there’s an overcount. Doctors in the field say the opposite

PolitiFact is a fact-checking website that rates the accuracy of claims by elected officials and others on its...

635683282425058770-ThinkstockPhotos-1600

Fact check: Is US coronavirus death toll inflated? Experts agree it's likely the opposite

Theories have circulated that the government’s system for counting COVID-19 deaths is resulting in an...

If you look at just mortality rates overall, they have been higher than usual, even accounting for deaths from the coronavirus:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/?arc404=true

There was an article in the Washington Post today on this topic. The short story is that this is more deadly than the flu, but it’s also not that simple since we have more accurate data for the coronavirus:

How to compare coronavirus deaths to flu deaths more accurately - The Washington Post

If we measure flu mortality the same way we count coronavirus deaths, the picture becomes very stark.

***iacas*** · May 3, 2020

20 hours ago, billchao said:

Yea that makes sense to me and that’s why I have no issue with COVID-19 being listed as a cause of death if it’s somehow related.

It’s more than that.

20 hours ago, DeadMan said:

You have a source on this? Because everything I’ve read says that the death count for COVID-19 is an undercount:

PolitiFact - COVID-19 skeptics say there’s an overcount. Doctors in the field say the opposite

PolitiFact is a fact-checking website that rates the accuracy of claims by elected officials and others on its...

Fact check: Is US coronavirus death toll inflated? Experts agree it's likely the opposite

Theories have circulated that the government’s system for counting COVID-19 deaths is resulting in an...

If you look at just mortality rates overall, they have been higher than usual, even accounting for deaths from the coronavirus:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/?arc404=true

There was an article in the Washington Post today on this topic. The short story is that this is more deadly than the flu, but it’s also not that simple since we have more accurate data for the coronavirus:

How to compare coronavirus deaths to flu deaths more accurately - The Washington Post

If we measure flu mortality the same way we count coronavirus deaths, the picture becomes very stark.

Talk to doctors. They’re saying they’re being pressured to list things as COVID deaths. Extra $ involved too.

The media has generally been shit for this as has the CDC.

**Vinsk** · May 3, 2020

11 minutes ago, iacas said:

Talk to doctors. They’re saying they’re being pressured to list things as COVID deaths. Extra $ involved too.

This. And that’s all I’ll say.

**billchao** · May 3, 2020

48 minutes ago, iacas said:

It’s more than that.

Talk to doctors. They’re saying they’re being pressured to list things as COVID deaths. Extra $ involved too.

The media has generally been shit for this as has the CDC.

Yea that’s not right, it’s stupid. Figures, though. It’s really hard not to be cynical these days when the cynical point of view tends to be right more often than not.

**CarlSpackler** · May 3, 2020

52 minutes ago, iacas said:

Talk to doctors. They’re saying they’re being pressured to list things as COVID deaths. Extra $ involved too.

The media has generally been shit for this as has the CDC.

Local guy died of a massive heart attack. He was told to make the cause COVID-19 since it happened during this. That’s coming from a nurse friend.

Edited May 3, 2020 by CarlSpackler

**Groucho Valentine** · May 3, 2020

I think its silly, too. The leading cause of both deaths and hospitalizations in the United States since march 1 has been COVID-19. The flu never reached such lofty levels, even in the same time frame. If allowed to run through the American population (like say the seasonal flu) the results could have been catastrophic. Its obviously something different.

To be blunt - denying the seriousness of the virus and relating the precautions taken as some kind of liberal hyped conspiracy isn't going to save Trumps presidency. That IMO is where those sentiments are coming from. Some of colleges and friends of mine are just completely suspending logic and reasoning out of fear they might lose their presidency to "the liberals" because of this.

**billchao** · May 3, 2020

9 minutes ago, Groucho Valentine said:

To be blunt - denying the seriousness of the virus and relating the precautions taken as some kind of liberal hyped conspiracy isn't going to save Trumps presidency. That IMO is where those sentiments are coming from. Some of colleges and friends of mine are just completely suspending logic and reasoning out of fear they might lose their presidency to "the liberals" because of this.

C’mon man, no politics.

**Groucho Valentine** · May 3, 2020

1 minute ago, billchao said:

C’mon man, no politics.

People comparing the Covid to the flu are in essence making a political statement. Politics is the root of that entire debate of the seriousness of the virus. Cant really have this discussion and create a pink elephant out of the political angle.

**saevel25** · May 3, 2020

1 minute ago, Groucho Valentine said:

Politics is the root of that entire debate of the seriousness of the virus. Cant really have this discussion and create a pink elephant out of the political angle.

You can have a debate about the seriousness of it and it not be political. It all depends on where people fall on the pragmatic spectrum.

**billchao** · May 3, 2020

5 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

You can have a debate about the seriousness of it and it not be political.

Yea, this, @Groucho Valentine. The position people take on how severe COVID-19 is does not fall directly along political lines.

I know liberals who think we are overreacting and conservatives who are scared of it. The person I had a conversation with that inspired me to write the original post is very liberal.

**DeadMan** · May 3, 2020

3 hours ago, iacas said:

Talk to doctors. They’re saying they’re being pressured to list things as COVID deaths. Extra $ involved too.

The media has generally been shit for this as has the CDC.

This is not a source. When you’re repeating a claim that seems to have a originated from a professional troll, you should have something better than “talk to doctors.”

Again, just the data on amount of deaths we’ve had shows a large increase over the normal numbers of death. Even if if they aren’t all caused by COVID, it strongly suggests that we’re undercounting COVID deaths.

Archie44 · May 3, 2020

On 5/2/2020 at 3:16 PM, iacas said:

That's bullshit, though, Bill, because they're just listing almost any respiratory related death as being COVID-19 right now. People who have died of heart attacks are classified as COVID deaths. Etc.

Do you think we've not advanced in the last 100+ years?

Cripes.

Yes, we have advanced. But so have viruses. Measles for example goes back to the 9th century and came back again last year.

Leadership led the US out of past maladies, wars and Pandemics. We do not have a leader right now. Any nation can make a mistake once and elect a bad leader once. But if Americans choose Trump again, that will send a clear message: We are no longer a serious nation. We are as ignorant as our thoughtless, narcissistic, ignorant president. Don’t be surprised if the rest of the world takes note of that, too. And I actually am ashamed to say I voted for the guy. No more political speak from me.

***iacas*** · May 3, 2020

1 hour ago, Groucho Valentine said:

To be blunt - denying the seriousness of the virus…

Who is doing that?

1 hour ago, Groucho Valentine said:

People comparing the Covid to the flu are in essence making a political statement. Politics is the root of that entire debate of the seriousness of the virus. Cant really have this discussion and create a pink elephant out of the political angle.

Bullshit.

22 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

This is not a source. When you’re repeating a claim that seems to have a originated from a professional troll, you should have something better than “talk to doctors.”

I'm not "repeating a claim." I'm saying what double digits of doctors have told me. Also, several pharmacists.

And I didn't count @Vinsk in my double digit numbers.

21 minutes ago, Archie44 said:

Yes, we have advanced. But so have viruses. Measles for example goes back to the 9th century and came back again last year.

In communities where a good number of people didn't get vaccines due to their disbelief of science.

21 minutes ago, Archie44 said:

We do not have a leader right now.

NO POLITICAL COMMENTARY. Goodness.

**xrayvizhen** · May 4, 2020

I think we can all reasonably conclude, without being political, our reaction here in the US could have been worse and it could have been better. Signs were emanating from Asia in early December that something bad was cooking over there. (My son was in Japan in December on business and he was telling me when he got back they were starting to freak-out about the virus then.) So POTUS could have read his reports and acted sooner. He also could have continued to ignore the warnings and not reacted until weeks later. So he did something, at least. Hindsight's 20-20. Those who are FOX & Rush Limbaugh fans think he did fine. Others, who watch MSNBC and CNN think he's a jerk. So there will be an election and we can decide for the short term who's a bum and who's not. Over the long haul, History will be the judge.

Meanwhile, the golf courses are open now!!!

**boogielicious** · May 4, 2020

31 minutes ago, xrayvizhen said:

I think we can all reasonably conclude, without being political, our reaction here in the US could have been worse and it could have been better. Signs were emanating from Asia in early December that something bad was cooking over there. (My son was in Japan in December on business and he was telling me when he got back they were starting to freak-out about the virus then.) So POTUS could have read his reports and acted sooner. He also could have continued to ignore the warnings and not reacted until weeks later. So he did something, at least. Hindsight's 20-20. Those who are FOX & Rush Limbaugh fans think he did fine. Others, who watch MSNBC and CNN think he's a jerk. So there will be an election and we can decide for the short term who's a bum and who's not. Over the long haul, History will be the judge.

Meanwhile, the golf courses are open now!!!

Please steer away from any political comments.

**metaswinger** · May 6, 2020

On 5/3/2020 at 3:38 PM, DeadMan said:

Again, just the data on amount of deaths we’ve had shows a large increase over the normal numbers of death. Even if if they aren’t all caused by COVID, it strongly suggests that we’re undercounting COVID deaths.

Nothing to see here kids. Move right along.

c11f2c3c-115b-4ff6-bcd6-c7a02b4a12ca-duc

State health department tells university COVID-19 modeling team to stop work, limits data access

The Arizona Department of Health Services told a team of university experts working on COVID-19 modeling to "pause" its work, an email from a department leader shows.

Florida stops medical examiners from releasing coronavirus death data: Report

"This is no different than any other public record we deal with," Dr. Nelson said Wednesday. "It's paid for by taxpayer dollars and the taxpayers have a right to know."

Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Says Task Force Will Wind Down - The New York Times

Jared Kushner tried to address a looming supply shortage with volunteers from the private sector. More than 1,000 people have died each day for over a month. Meat is growing scarcer.

**dennyjones** · May 6, 2020

My wife's dentist called her last night and said when they get back to work (sooner than later) he's going to have all of the staff watch conspiracy Youtube videos. He doesn't know anyone that has died and believes that this situation is no different than the normal flu season. He's been working the entire time doing "emergency" dental work but our friend that is his assistant said he's doing normal routine dental procedures.

**TN94z** · May 6, 2020

I'll say this as I work in a hospital. I don't have articles to quote, because I could basically find an article to back anything I say, but the hospitals here have been ghost towns. Patient count is extremely low, I think there may have been 6 people total in the hospital for Covid. ER's have been extremely slow. ICUs have had less patients. Nurses and even doctors were furloughed. And the doctors I have talked with basically share the same viewpoint as what @iacas has stated. I hear nurses jokingly say "where did all of the sick people go?" The virus is obviously a real thing, I'm not saying otherwise. I believe the hospitals were put in a position to lean more towards a Covid classification of death to get more relief money. Obviously, this is all my opinion based off of conversations I have personally had with doctors and nurses. It is a tough situation, but I'll keep my conspiracy theories to myself.

Edited May 6, 2020 by TN94z

**CarlSpackler** · May 6, 2020

@TN94z I hear the same from my friends that work at hospitals. Some smaller hospitals are closing too.

1 hour ago, dennyjones said:

My wife's dentist called her last night and said when they get back to work (sooner than later) he's going to have all of the staff watch conspiracy Youtube videos. He doesn't know anyone that has died and believes that this situation is no different than the normal flu season. He's been working the entire time doing "emergency" dental work but our friend that is his assistant said he's doing normal routine dental procedures.

My dentist made me swish peroxide in my mouth for a minute. Blech!!!

***iacas*** · May 6, 2020

Let me be clear at least for myself: I don't think there's any sort of "conspiracy" per se. I just think that our "view" of the virus is a bit exaggerated as a country. I'm excluding NYC, Philly, Detroit, and two or three other cities from this, but basically:

The mortality rate is lower than most continue to believe.
The infection rate is much higher than initially believed. These two go hand in hand.
The disease affects older people greatly. They could have been under different restrictions than others.
Most areas are seeing massively underwhelming use of their hospital resources.
The effects on the economy will last for a decade.

Did we over-react? Yes, IMO, we did. But…

I was scheduled to go to Pinehurst on a trip at the end of March for a four-day weekend. I said after that weekend had passed (and it was 80° and sunny every day in Pinehurst) that two things were both true:

We absolutely made the right call to cancel our trip given the information we had at the time.
We could have gone and been completely, totally safe and had a marvelous, wonderful time given the information we learned after the fact.

At the time, it seemed likely to most that Pinehurst would also close down, or travel bans would exist state-to-state, or that restrooms would close along the highways… whatever. But after the fact, and having gone to Pinehurst in late April instead for a longer period of time… it would have been fine to go, and was a great mental health boost.

In other words, we did and didn't "over-react" because the information we had at the time was that this was a "Very Bad Thing™". Italy, Spain, etc. were being rocked. China was full of shit (have they reported even 1/5th the number of deaths as even NYC yet?). But in hindsight, we could have likely done things differently. We could have:

Prepared better. More tests, more masks. This was hampered greatly by the bullshit coming from China.
Closed fewer businesses, but had more precautions in place. Masks, customer limits, etc.
Done more with restrictions regionally. Many states are big, and Erie ≠ Pittsburgh ≠ Philadelphia.

Some good will come of this, too. Some companies are learning that telecommuting can work. Some people are getting to spend more time with their families. We're seeing unprecedented study of corona virus type stuff, which may help fight not only SARS, MERS, COVID-19, but future coronaviruses.

**saevel25** · May 6, 2020

Erik, great summary. For me, you can only judge how we should have reacted under the context of the information we had at hand. At the time, it looked bad. Right now, it doesn't look so bad. I hope the biggest thing we learn from this is to ramp up testing as fast as possible to get more information. Also, to have a stockpile of PPE.

***iacas*** · May 6, 2020

31 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Erik, great summary. For me, you can only judge how we should have reacted under the context of the information we had at hand. At the time, it looked bad. Right now, it doesn't look so bad. I hope the biggest thing we learn from this is to ramp up testing as fast as possible to get more information. Also, to have a stockpile of PPE.

Right.

I'm trying not to be "optimistic" about things, but at the same time, a lot of the news since early April has been pretty good - higher asymptomatic rates, higher infection rates (which lowers mortality and speaks to earlier almost undetected spreading of the virus). Treatments are being developed. Vaccines may actually work. Etc.

**phillyk** · May 6, 2020

A good stat to follow, I was told by a Virologist, is the % of tested that’s actually infected. In WA, I think I remember it starting around 4-5%, went up to 9%ish and has been dropping since, and is now at 7.1%. It’s hard to say what specific precautions are enough to a) stop the % from growing and b) reduce it. When do you stop precautions all together? I feel like what we are doing is a bit overboard, but idk. But obviously, more and more testing needs to be made available.

**Vinsk** · May 6, 2020

If the country would act the way it has for the past couple of months I think we’d have the mildest flu season in years. Not shutting businesses, but with some social distancing and masks it would make a substantial difference.

**dennyjones** · May 6, 2020

In our county where there have been a larger number of Covid-19 cases, only 5202 have been tested. Of that 5202, 1703 have tested positive. There are over 405k people in the county. In the township where I live they haven't released the numbers tested. There are 33 cases and 1.9% death. I'm not sure where they are getting their numbers...

Genesee County

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