Jump to content
Vinsk

NCAA Football 2019

508 posts / 17400 viewsLast Reply

Recommended Posts

43 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Great. And I disagree. LSU is the best team. Their wins are just a little more impressive to me especially with Cincinnati losing today. 
All the pie graphs and bar charts mean nothing when you’re trying to compare teams across different conferences.

Sure it does, especially when the values take into effect how good conferences are. 

The values are not 100% predictive, nothing is. These advanced stats are pretty good at telling you, on average, how good a team would be against another. This is proven since something like the SP+ is pretty good when gauging things like betting against the spread, predicting margin of victory, things like that. Which means the numbers are good at telling how good a team is. So, they actually have test data on this since they track it against Vegas and actual head to head results. 

Your notion that these stats are not good is just not correct. The people who make these stats are constantly tweaking them to get them as close as they can to real world outcomes. Like any sort of regression, individual results can be above or below the line. 

I've said before, I think LSU has the right to be ranked #1 depending on the ranking criteria. I have no issue with that. 

47 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

All I’ve got is the history of OSU vs SEC teams to look at which means nothing.

Again, 

2014 - the last time OSU faced an SEC team they beat up on Alabama. Which history do you an to look at here? Urban kinda threw your OSU versus SEC generalizations out of whack. 

What history do you want to use here? Before Urban Meyer, that is what 4-5 OSU QB's ago? How I that relevant now? 

I mean, by your logic OSU should never have gone on this run to beat Michigan since Cooper couldn't get over that hill. Yet, like how Urban turned OSU into a top 5 team, Tressel debunked that notion. Teams change. 

Wasn't there a time when OU couldn't hang with Texas? 

48 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I believe if Minnesota was in the SEC they’d be lucky to be 0.500. 

Depends on the division they played in. If it's Alabama's division, then yes. If it's the other, they would be above 500. It's a bit more complicated than you just saying if they were in the SEC. 

49 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Numbers don’t really mean anything.

Do numbers mean nothing in baseball? I mean, saber metrics revolutionized baseball. More and more now numbers are being used by the NFL to debunk bad coaching habits. 

Again, why do you discredit numbers? Just because it goes against the way you like to think?

51 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

People see each fighter and make an opinion as to who they think will  win said match. It’s an eye test which requires no data or stats aside from the qualifying physical attributes. 

Which is backed up by data. 

1. NC teams average in the top 5 in recruiting 2-3 years before winning their championship game. 
2. They have a high scoring margin over their opponents regardless of strength of schedule. 

That is about it.  You need lots of talent. You need good coaches to harness that talent. Guess what, OSU is the 2nd best recruiting team over the past 3-4 years. Apparently, their coaching stat if legit. 

1 hour ago, David in FL said:

I can think of 3, maybe 4 Big 10 teams that beat Alabama right now.

With out Tua, OSU would win more often than not, and I would give 2 more teams a shot at beating them. 

If you want to combine the SEC and B10. It's OSU, then 3 SEC teams, then a mix of 3 SEC teams and 4 B10 teams. Then there is a huge drop off in SEC teams from 6 to 8. While there are two more B10 teams. 

Screen Shot 2019-11-30 at 11.07.35 PM.png

I would put it this way. The SEC has 3 Elite teams. The B10 has one. The SEC then has 3 very good teams. The B10 has 4 very good teams. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Register for free today and you won't see this ad spot again!

Having no dog in the show, I think neither the Big 10 or SEC would stand a chance against, Mary Hardin- Baylor.

football.png

The official 2019 College Football Bracket for Division III. Includes a printable bracket and links to buy NCAA championship tickets.

For grade point average that is.😜

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

So far we have Coaching  vacancies at Arkansas, Missouri, Rutgers, Ole Miss, Florida State, Boston College, South Florida, USC, UTSA.....

Just looking at Ole Miss, I think with their QB and how young they were (there is some talent there, just needs to be coached) that they are gonna look for some one like Joe Brady (LSU Asst,) and maybe Kevin Napier (Louisiana Lafayette) that can bring some offensive excitement to them and begin to recruit some real talent at the skill positions that want to play in that high powered type offense.  Heard that Arkansas was wooing Lane Kiffin.

Think about the Boston College job and who you have to play on that side of the ACC every year....gonna be hard to win 7 games with that schedule, but then maybe 7 wins is acceptable.

Who do you see filling some of these positions that are open?  How does the guy at Michigan State stay there only being a relevant team 1 of the last 10 years...?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Osnola said:

How does the guy at Michigan State stay there only being a relevant team 1 of the last 10 years...?

I'm sure a lot of people are asking that question up in East Lansing. They were scrambling just to make a bowl game this season.

At least a part of the problem has to do with certain other football programs making inroads with their recruiting. Sparty was never getting the recruits that Ohio State or TTUN were going after, but they got a whole lot of the guys that were just a small cut under that. Now you've got programs like Kentucky, Cincinnati, Indiana and Pittsburgh landing guys that used to be destined for the Green and White. 

Staying on course is sort of theme of both Dantonio and Michigan State in general. Continuity and loyalty is what they are trying to sell. It just doesn't seem like anybody is buying right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

7 hours ago, Osnola said:

How does the guy at Michigan State stay there only being a relevant team 1 of the last 10 years...?

It's about expectations. They don't expect to be in the top 10 every year. The school is OK with that. 

Before Dantonio, you need to go back to to 1932 to find a HC at MSU that has a better winning % than him. So, for that school, he's a good HC. He sometimes puts a team together that can make a run at the playoffs. 

Its the issue with Michigan fans. They expect to be national contenders. 

Harbaugh is Lloyd Carr with out a NC to his name. 

Harbaugh - .746 overall, .744 in conference, no conference championships, no NC in 4 seasons
Carr - .753 overall, .779 in conference, 5 conference championships, 1/2 a NC in 12 seasons. In that season, they split the NC with Nebraska. Really, Nebraska would probably have crushed them that year.

If you consider the during and after the BCS era, Harbaugh is the best Michigan Coach. After that 12-0 (1997) season, Michigan averaged 3 losses a year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

It's about expectations. They don't expect to be in the top 10 every year. The school is OK with that. 

Before Dantonio, you need to go back to to 1932 to find a HC at MSU that has a better winning % than him. So, for that school, he's a good HC. He sometimes puts a team together that can make a run at the playoffs. 

Its the issue with Michigan fans. They expect to be national contenders. 

Harbaugh is Lloyd Carr with out a NC to his name. 

Harbaugh - .746 overall, .744 in conference, no conference championships, no NC in 4 seasons
Carr - .753 overall, .779 in conference, 5 conference championships, 1/2 a NC in 12 seasons. In that season, they split the NC with Nebraska. Really, Nebraska would probably have crushed them that year.

If you consider the during and after the BCS era, Harbaugh is the best Michigan Coach. After that 12-0 (1997) season, Michigan averaged 3 losses a year. 

Pretty solid post there and I agree. I think the expectation for him was a bit high and that’s what people are focusing on. It’s been said they Harbaugh was brought to beat OSU and win a NC. He’s done neither of those in 4 years. I’m not sure any coach could’ve done it considering the teams OSU has assembled of late. 
At the post-game conference I think Harbaugh was wrong to take the reporter’s question about ‘where’s the gap’ regarding OSU vs MI as an insult. It was a valid question. Sadly, I think his only answer would be, ‘all the above.’ 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

10 hours ago, Osnola said:

 

Who do you see filling some of these positions that are open?  How does the guy at Michigan State stay there only being a relevant team 1 of the last 10 years...?

 

5 hours ago, mcanadiens said:

I'm sure a lot of people are asking that question up in East Lansing. They were scrambling just to make a bowl game this season.

At least a part of the problem has to do with certain other football programs making inroads with their recruiting. Sparty was never getting the recruits that Ohio State or TTUN were going after, but they got a whole lot of the guys that were just a small cut under that. Now you've got programs like Kentucky, Cincinnati, Indiana and Pittsburgh landing guys that used to be destined for the Green and White. 

Staying on course is sort of theme of both Dantonio and Michigan State in general. Continuity and loyalty is what they are trying to sell. It just doesn't seem like anybody is buying right now.

I'll throw in my 2¢ - it is more than 1 of the last 10 years, 2013,14 & 15 were top ten teams, with 2013 being the high water mark at 13-1 (only a bad loss at ND), but there is a lot of unrest in East Lansing as the offense has been stagnant since 2015 and little to no changes in the staff.

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

It's about expectations. They don't expect to be in the top 10 every year. The school is OK with that. 

Before Dantonio, you need to go back to to 1932 to find a HC at MSU that has a better winning % than him. So, for that school, he's a good HC. He sometimes puts a team together that can make a run at the playoffs. 

Its the issue with Michigan fans. They expect to be national contenders. 

Harbaugh is Lloyd Carr with out a NC to his name. 

Harbaugh - .746 overall, .744 in conference, no conference championships, no NC in 4 seasons
Carr - .753 overall, .779 in conference, 5 conference championships, 1/2 a NC in 12 seasons. In that season, they split the NC with Nebraska. Really, Nebraska would probably have crushed them that year.

If you consider the during and after the BCS era, Harbaugh is the best Michigan Coach. After that 12-0 (1997) season, Michigan averaged 3 losses a year. 

It is all about expectations, but also looking at career records can be misleading, as you typically throw out the first year or two for regime change and then the last year or two when the downfall happens. 
MSU is clearly in a down fall with losing 6 or more games in 3 of the last 4 years
UM under Llloyd - was great for about 5-6 years, but it was the bad losses that ended his reign (Appalachian St) 
but Michigan shows it isn't easy to change coaching staffs without ripples in the program - look how Bama struggled for years before Saban took over
Harbaugh is harder to quantify because he has stopped them bad losses to inferior teams (under Rich Rod and Hoke), but he has no signature wins and hasn't been to the B1G championship game, other than 2018 have finished in the middle of the division and have not been competitive against OSU.

There are high expectation in Ann Arbor, but it getting harder and harder to get back to where they think they should be, as OSU has dominated on the field and in recruiting, it has been 15 years since they won the conference so nobody they are recruiting remembers when they were a dominant program. They are a blue blood, but that doesn't mean much to the Snapchat generation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

29 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

UM under Llloyd - was great for about 5-6 years, but it was the bad losses that ended his reign (Appalachian St) 

If you take away that 12-0 season, he averaged 3 losses a year. Not sure that is great. I think they had two great teams. 

1997 and 2006. I would say the other years, they were above average. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

The stat breakdown of OSU's win over Michigan, 

OSUMICH.png

Some Key Indicators, 
1. Michigan matches OSU in Success Rate, and ended up down 28 to 16. 
2. Big time defensive adjustments made by OSU in the 2nd half (50% success 1st half to 27% in the 2nd half). 
3. Justin Fields to Garret Wilson and Chris Olave next year! Then add in that OSU has 4 of the top 15 WR in the 2020 class! 
4. Hassan Haskins had a good day, having more Highlight Yards than Dobbins. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I've said it before and I'll say it again.....win the line of scrimmage. Ohio State blew Michigan's defensive line off the line of scrimmage the entire game. The defensive line did a good job stopping the run and making Michigan one dimensional. They got out of the zone defense in the second half and played some man under and Patterson had to be perfect throwing the ball and the receivers had to catch the ball (which they couldn't do). And eventually....the bigger, stronger and faster team will take over. I read a article somewhere by some idiot who said "Ohio State is playing chess and Michigan is playing checkers". That is completely wrong, Ohio State is playing checkers and Michigan is having to play chess. I have been there...watching a team your going to play next on film and realizing that they are better than you at every position. You can play a perfect game and they can play an "okay" game and you can still get beat. It ain't about the X's and O's....it's the Jimmy's and Joe's. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

1 hour ago, Bucki1968 said:

You can play a perfect game and they can play an "okay" game and you can still get beat. It ain't about the X's and O's....it's the Jimmy's and Joe's. 

It's a bit of both. 

I think Urban Meyer said once that talent gets you 9-10 wins a season, Leadership gets you the remaining. Still, National championship caliber teams need to be in the top 5 in recruiting 3-4 years before their NC team. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

22 hours ago, saevel25 said:

If you take away that 12-0 season, he averaged 3 losses a year. Not sure that is great. I think they had two great teams. 

Yup - that's why he was referred to as Llloyd (maybe it was too subtle in my earlier post)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

OK....Playing "What If"

Ohio State Beats Wisconsin  LSU beats Georgia   Clemson beats Virginia  Oregon beats Utah  Baylor beats Oklahoma

Who are your top 4 teams that could come out of this weekend?

What if...OSU beats Wisconsin  Georgia beats LSU  Clemson beats Virginia   Utah beats Oregon, Oklahoma beats Baylor

Who are you top 4 teams coming-out of this weekend?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Osnola said:

OK....Playing "What If"

Ohio State Beats Wisconsin  LSU beats Georgia   Clemson beats Virginia  Oregon beats Utah  Baylor beats Oklahoma

Who are your top 4 teams that could come out of this weekend?

What if...OSU beats Wisconsin  Georgia beats LSU  Clemson beats Virginia   Utah beats Oregon, Oklahoma beats Baylor

Who are you top 4 teams coming-out of this weekend?

They’ll throw Utah a bone over OU just due to the absence of the PAC-12 in any conversations as of late. They’ll be humiliated by any SEC top team, OSU or Clemson. 
There’s zero chance Wisconsin beats OSU. Oregon is nothing to admire these days. I’d love to see OSU play Utah with their second string just to remind them what it takes to really belong at the top. Utah is a notch above Boise and that’s about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I’m not sure any team Utah has played even has a winning season? WA? WashSt? Most complete team? Seriously? Are they delusional? Utah hasn’t played any team to put them in the mix with OSU, LSU or Georgia. This is absolute force feeding of the Crap-12 to the mix.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I saw it in print but it stated something along the lines of nobody wants to see Utah in the final 4.   I'd have to agree.   If Utah wins big, I believe they are in.

I believe if Oklahoma beats Baylor big, they could be in.     After their last game against each other and no display of defense, it's going to be hard for either to make the playoff unless it is a lopsided victory.

If LSU and Georgia is a close game, they both could be in the final 4 but nobody wants to see a rematch.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Welcome to TST! Signing up is free, and you'll see fewer ads and can talk with fellow golf enthusiasts! By using TST, you agree to our Terms of Use, our Privacy Policy, and our Guidelines.

The popup will be closed in 10 seconds...