NCAA Football 2019

[Vinsk]

17 minutes ago, Osnola said:

Wait til the dust settles and you will see.  The x factor in all of this is coaching...Dabo is best of the 4...

Damn....you make my posts look reasonable with that mess. You gotta do better than that.

[saevel25]

On a side note, I’m claiming OSU will have partial the NC if LSU wins. We did give them their QB... 😉

[Piz]

Hey...OSU got their QB from Georgia; Oklahoma got theirs from Alabama; and LSU got theirs from Ohio State.  Don't look like anybody knew what they were doing...except Clemson.

[Osnola]

No....I just made the claim like everyone else...a hunch, a feeling, an examination of how close these teams are...the fact that Clemson has been there, their players and coaches have been there.  Just wait til the end and we will see.  Who knows what factors could pop up.  What if one of the teams loses their QB early in the first game on the 28th,  

Don’ get your panties in a wad, this is all conjecture, back and forth banter, and poking and provoking. 

[klineka]

30 minutes ago, Osnola said:

What if one of the teams loses their QB early in the first game on the 28th

Well no sh!t. We are talking about the teams as they stand right now, not based on future events that may or may not happen.

37 minutes ago, Osnola said:

this is all conjecture, back and forth banter, and poking and provoking. 

But the difference is that @saevel25 and I (and even @Vinsk too) used facts to support our opinions instead of just making baseless claims.

The reasons you have provided so far as to why you think Clemson should be #1 include:

• Wait til the dust settles and you will see.  The x factor in all of this is coaching...Dabo is best of the 4...
• a hunch, a feeling, an examination of how close these teams are
• the fact that Clemson has been there, their players and coaches have been there

That's a poor attempt to back up your claim IMO.

Here are some facts as to why I think OSU should be ranked higher than Clemson:

• OSU's strength of schedule is 18th, Clemson's is 60th.
• OSU has 5 wins against current top 25 teams and 4 wins against top 15 teams, Clemson has 1 win against top 25 and 0 against top 20.
• Despite OSU playing a much tougher schedule overall, they have a higher point differential (470) than Clemson (467)
• OSU averages more ppg than Clemson (48.7 to 46.5)
• OSU is ranked higher than Clemson in a number of advanced metric rankings including ESPN's FPI, ESPN's team efficiency, and Jeff Sagarin's models.

So even though Clemson has played a weaker schedule and performed worse in those weaker games over the course of the entire season than OSU has (and LSU for that matter) you expect us to take your opinion seriously simply because you have a hunch and think Dabo is the best coach out of the 4 playoff teams?? 

[saevel25]

The OSU versus Clemson matchup, 

OSU tries to run the ball more often than Clemson (63% to 53%). OSU's passing game is more efficient and explosive than Clemson's. OSU has a passer rating of 188 to Clemson's 163. OSU has a passing average of 9.3 to 8.7. Clemson has the best rushing average in the nation at 6.46 to Ohio State's 5.67. 

These teams are very similar in yards per play on offense and defense, 

CLEMSON	Offense	Defense
Passing	8.70	5.30
Rushing	6.46	2.97
Ohio State	Offense	Defense
Passing	9.30	5.30
Rushing	5.67	2.82

What if you average the defense versus offense of the yards per play. You have something like, Clemson gaining 419 yards to OSU gaining 412 yards. At these yardages, it will be a very tight game. Probably something in the low 30's. Field position could be a big deal in this game. 10 yards of field position advantage could add an additional 120 yards.

I was curious if Clemson gets pressure with their DL versus their LB or DB's. 50% of their sacks come from their DL and 37% comes from their LB. Versus 70% of the sacks come from OSU's DL versus 22% from their LB. This could be a big deal since Clemson likes to throw the ball more often than OSU. 

Here is an issue for Clemson, they are ranked 103rd in Special Teams. Their field goal kicker is 66% on the season. OSU is ranked in the top 20 in special teams. 

I think that OSU will be able to stall Clemson's offense more then they can our offense. The reason being, I think Clemson will have to get to the QB by blitzing their LB's. Day is really good at exploiting defenses that need to get pressure with more than 4 players. OSU's defensive concept is to force teams to go on long drives with a DL that can get to the QB and cause TFL. I am not sure how often Clemson gets out of a 5 man protection for the QB, but Chase Young has proven you can not block him 1v1. He had zero sacks that last two games because the teams have put three guys on him. Will Clemson take away a WR to bring in an extra TE or OL to help out? 

I will take OSU in a close game 34 to 31. 

[Osnola]

2 hours ago, klineka said:

Well no sh!t. We are talking about the teams as they stand right now, not based on future events that may or may not happen.

But the difference is that @saevel25 and I (and even @Vinsk too) used facts to support our opinions instead of just making baseless claims.

The reasons you have provided so far as to why you think Clemson should be #1 include:

• Wait til the dust settles and you will see.  The x factor in all of this is coaching...Dabo is best of the 4...
• a hunch, a feeling, an examination of how close these teams are
• the fact that Clemson has been there, their players and coaches have been there

That's a poor attempt to back up your claim IMO.

Here are some facts as to why I think OSU should be ranked higher than Clemson:

• OSU's strength of schedule is 18th, Clemson's is 60th.
• OSU has 5 wins against current top 25 teams and 4 wins against top 15 teams, Clemson has 1 win against top 25 and 0 against top 20.
• Despite OSU playing a much tougher schedule overall, they have a higher point differential (470) than Clemson (467)
• OSU averages more ppg than Clemson (48.7 to 46.5)
• OSU is ranked higher than Clemson in a number of advanced metric rankings including ESPN's FPI, ESPN's team efficiency, and Jeff Sagarin's models.

So even though Clemson has played a weaker schedule and performed worse in those weaker games over the course of the entire season than OSU has (and LSU for that matter) you expect us to take your opinion seriously simply because you have a hunch and think Dabo is the best coach out of the 4 playoff teams?? 

You can show all the "advanced metrics" you want, but they do not show anything about preparation for the big games.  You have 19 days to manipulate and study your "advanced metrics".   Statistics show the past....not necessarily a prediction of the future.  So much can happen once the ball is teed up and play starts.  This is different because it is "one and done".  I never said Clemson should be #1....I just said that I think Clemson is the "best" team.  So, if you had your choice, everyone would rather play Oklahoma first and not Clemson.  Why?  Because Clemson is a good team and can beat any of the other 3 teams...

Now, a little switch....looking at the bowl games you have Michigan vs Alabama...will Harbaugh be coaching Michigan during that bowl game or will he take another job in the NFL, like with Carolina Panthers.  Harbaugh has to know that he will never beat Ohio State and it is only a matter of a short time before all at Michigan understand this and give Harbaugh a ride out of town....Will Alabama show up or kick the can because they are not playing on the "big stage"?

Edited December 9, 2019 by Osnola

[klineka]

3 minutes ago, Osnola said:

 I never said Clemson should be #1....

Yes you did

17 hours ago, Osnola said:

Who would you rather play...Clemson or Oklahoma...Clemson should be No. 1 but schedule prevents that. 

 

[saevel25]

4 minutes ago, Osnola said:

Statistics show the past....not necessarily a prediction of the future.  

The creator of SP+ will disagree with you. It's pretty good at predicting games against the spread. So, advanced stats can have some predictive uses. 

4 minutes ago, Osnola said:

So, if you had your choice, everyone would rather play Oklahoma first and not Clemson.  Why?  Because Clemson is a good team and can beat any of the other 3 teams...

Because the stats show Clemson as the more complete team. 

SP+ Rankings
Clemson: 6th ranked Offense, 3rd Ranked Defense
OU: 2nd ranked Offense, 36th Ranked Defense

9 minutes ago, Osnola said:

Now, a little switch....looking at the bowl games you have Michigan vs Alabama...will Harbaugh be coaching Michigan during that bowl game or will he take another job in the NFL, like with Carolina Panthers.  Harbaugh has to know that he will never beat Ohio State and it is only a matter of a short time before all at Michigan understand this and give Harbaugh a ride out of town....Will Alabama show up or kick the can because they are not playing on the "big stage"?

The problem is, the higher ups at Michigan don't want him to leave. I heard there was a source saying that since Harbaugh brings the school a lot of money they don't care about the results versus OSU. 

I will take Alabama 35 Michigan 24

[Osnola]

11 minutes ago, klineka said:

Yes you did

 

OK....

[Vinsk]

57 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

The problem is, the higher ups at Michigan don't want him to leave. I heard there was a source saying that since Harbaugh brings the school a lot of money they don't care about the results versus OSU. 

I will take Alabama 35 Michigan 24

Yeah JH not going anywhere unless he decides to. These games are difficult to predict as it really comes down to the players and they’re pretty bummed at this point. Let’s face it, Alabama enters every season with the expectation of winning the NC. And at the very least the playoffs. Not much fire in the players to play Michigan. The sports announcers, the coaches can all hype up the game but inside those kids the fire is smoldering and the sparks are gone. But, it’s still Alabama and JH still lost to OSU.
 

Alabama 38 Michigan 20

[iacas]

1 hour ago, Osnola said:

Statistics show the past....not necessarily a prediction of the future.

Incorrect. Tell that to every Vegas house that's hiring stats geeks to help them set lines, etc. so that they can earn the most money. Stats are predictive, too.

[saevel25]

Bill Connelly's SP+ is  good at predicting against the spread. He's around 55% correct against the spread. Which is a pretty good house edge 😉 . He just studied what typically wins games and collects the data and comes up with a predictive measure of a teams ability against an average team (SP+ Rankings). Then, he uses that to compare match-ups. 

 

[saevel25]

Lets go back to 2016, OSU versus Clemson, and why this is a different OSU team. 

OSU Offense 2016 versus 2019
Passer Rating: 44th versus 5th
Passing Yards Avg: 87th versus 10th
Rushing Average: 17th versus 6th 

OSU Defense 2016 versus 2019
Rushing Average: 19th versus 6th
Passing Average: 1st versus 1st
Passer Rating: 2nd versus 3rd

The biggest issue with the 2016 team was an average passing attack with a vanilla inside zone read scheme (Urban's Base Run Plays). The issue came against AP Ranked teams in 2016. OSU's QB rating dropped from 147 to 125. The average dropped from 7.5 to 6.1. OSU could not push the ball down field. Specifically, against top defenses in 2016 the passer rating was sub 100. Against a Clemson team, who didn't have to worry about the top of the defense getting taken off, they could condense the field. Basically OSU was playing in the redzone the entire length of the field. 

Compare this to 2019, against ranked AP teams, the rating did drop, but its still at 177. OSU's average yards didn't drop, they are pushing the ball down the field very efficiently. If you look at the top defenses they have played this year, the passer rating was above 170 three times and still above 147 the other two times.  This passing game, at it's worse, is as good or just slightly better (since the average is higher) than the 2016 OSU team. 

I will still claim that the OSU defense in that 2016 game balled out. They held Clemson to 75% under their normal scoring potential (points per play). If you consider that Clemson ran 85 plays to OSU's 56 plays, the score should have been in the mid 40's. 

I go back to my previous post, in terms of getting sacks. That 2016 Clemson team didn't need to use a linebacker to get sacks or tackle for loss. They had three DL who had more than 6 sacks. The top two in tackle for loss were DL. Compared to the 2019 Clemson team, their primary sack guy is a linebacker. They have no DL guys with above 6 sacks this season. 

Kinda why I don't foresee a repeat of the 2016 game. They are completely different teams. You have a current OSU team who passes the ball WAY better than the 2016 team. They can stretch the field extremely well. This current Clemson team don't have three world beaters on the D-Line like that 2016 team. 

[Vinsk]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Lets go back to 2016, OSU versus Clemson, and why this is a different OSU team. 

OSU Offense 2016 versus 2019
Passer Rating: 44th versus 5th
Passing Yards Avg: 87th versus 10th
Rushing Average: 17th versus 6th 

OSU Defense 2016 versus 2019
Rushing Average: 19th versus 6th
Passing Average: 1st versus 1st
Passer Rating: 2nd versus 3rd

The biggest issue with the 2016 team was an average passing attack with a vanilla inside zone read scheme (Urban's Base Run Plays). The issue came against AP Ranked teams in 2016. OSU's QB rating dropped from 147 to 125. The average dropped from 7.5 to 6.1. OSU could not push the ball down field. Specifically, against top defenses in 2016 the passer rating was sub 100. Against a Clemson team, who didn't have to worry about the top of the defense getting taken off, they could condense the field. Basically OSU was playing in the redzone the entire length of the field. 

Compare this to 2019, against ranked AP teams, the rating did drop, but its still at 177. OSU's average yards didn't drop, they are pushing the ball down the field very efficiently. If you look at the top defenses they have played this year, the passer rating was above 170 three times and still above 147 the other two times.  This passing game, at it's worse, is as good or just slightly better (since the average is higher) than the 2016 OSU team. 

I will still claim that the OSU defense in that 2016 game balled out. They held Clemson to 75% under their normal scoring potential (points per play). If you consider that Clemson ran 85 plays to OSU's 56 plays, the score should have been in the mid 40's. 

I go back to my previous post, in terms of getting sacks. That 2016 Clemson team didn't need to use a linebacker to get sacks or tackle for loss. They had three DL who had more than 6 sacks. The top two in tackle for loss were DL. Compared to the 2019 Clemson team, their primary sack guy is a linebacker. They have no DL guys with above 6 sacks this season. 

Kinda why I don't foresee a repeat of the 2016 game. They are completely different teams. You have a current OSU team who passes the ball WAY better than the 2016 team. They can stretch the field extremely well. This current Clemson team don't have three world beaters on the D-Line like that 2016 team. 

All good points. But the lurking issue for me is how OSU performed for more than half the game against Wisconsin. You give Clemson a 21pt start...you’re done. OSU a great 3-4th quarter team but that sluggish start won’t fair well with any of the top four teams. I think (hope) it’s a dogfight. I’m not too hopeful how OU will do against LSU. Zero discipline and an iffy defense isn’t what you want against LSU.

[saevel25]

4 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

But the lurking issue for me is how OSU performed for more than half the game against Wisconsin. You give Clemson a 21pt start...you’re done.

I agree.. OSU can not grant Clemson a 21 point lead. Though, I think OSU is equipped to make it close if they do. The number of times they go on a 21 point streak in a short amount of time is still amazing to me. It's been like clockwork. OSU feels out what the other team does for about 3 drives and then just steps on the gas on offense and defense.

I am not sure that I would take the Wisconsin game as what this team is though. You have a team motivated for revenge, they worked on all the deficiencies that Illinois and OSU exposed on them, and they threw the kitchen sink at OSU. You have OSU's #1 DB go out and things start to get exposed a bit. Who would have thought that Wisconsin's QB would pull the ball and run it. Great adjustment there for Wisconsin. It gave them a lead at the half, but then OSU held them to 80 yards for the rest of the game (excluding the last drive in garbage time) 

Still, OSU needs to match Clemson drive for drive if they come firing right out of the gate. Kinda like how OSU kept up with Michigan and pulled away. 

[saevel25]

 

[Vinsk]

Pretty good rundown of the game I think. I just hope we don’t get ‘fluke’ nonsense from either side. Botched punts, QB bobbles, dumb Offsides/False starts...that kind of stuff. Just want them both to show up and play hard. I think it’ll be a great game. Good call of course that this game will be the first of the season for Clemson. A&M scrappy but nothing to really compare to OSU.