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35 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

First vaccine data is out, and it looks good. 90% effective:

2835.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8

Interim analysis of vaccine by Pfizer/BioNTech far exceeds expectations of most experts

This is undoubtedly great news. However, it requires 2 doses and it has to be stored at -80 degree celsius. I'm not sure that's scalable to use this vaccine for the whole population. It might be a good candidate for vaccine specific high risk populations like health care workers, nursing home residents, teachers, etc. 

Two quick points, one from last night and one from basic knowledge…

  • You don't need to vaccinate everyone. You vaccinate the health care workers and the elderly and those at risk first. Then you start ticking off others, like maybe even kids, who might be more likely to spread the virus. Once you get to a herd immunity level, the viral outbreaks that will pop up (because even if you get to 80% inoculated that's not distributed uniformly) will be much more manageable.
  • The military, from 60 Minutes last night, has big plans in conjunction with FedEx and UPS and whatnot, to distribute vaccines. They're already stockpiling them, and facilities are ramping up already even though it's months away.

If we have a vaccine in even slightly short-term (January? February?) that's several months before I thought it might be possible. So that's good news overall.

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12 hours ago, iacas said:

Two quick points, one from last night and one from basic knowledge…

  • You don't need to vaccinate everyone. You vaccinate the health care workers and the elderly and those at risk first. Then you start ticking off others, like maybe even kids, who might be more likely to spread the virus. Once you get to a herd immunity level, the viral outbreaks that will pop up (because even if you get to 80% inoculated that's not distributed uniformly) will be much more manageable.
  • The military, from 60 Minutes last night, has big plans in conjunction with FedEx and UPS and whatnot, to distribute vaccines. They're already stockpiling them, and facilities are ramping up already even though it's months away.

If we have a vaccine in even slightly short-term (January? February?) that's several months before I thought it might be possible. So that's good news overall.

The data is really exciting. It show there is an end in sight. Unfortunately the storage challenge is not addressed.

Few medical offices, no pharmacies and only some hospitals have -80c storage. The amount of storage needed is significant. This is a realistic solution for high risk and individuals in  a relatively short timeline. Nothing FedEx has is able to help with that storage. Vaccine will need to be shipped on dry ice (not a big deal).

12 hours ago, DaveP043 said:

Indeed, very good news, although interim.  These results apply only to the first 7 days after the second dose, so long-term efficacy is still being evaluated, as is the longer-term potential for side effects.  I read that they're studying whether the vaccine can survive for moderate time periods at normal refrigerator temperatures, if so it could be practical to use it more widely.  Fingers crossed, hoping for more good news.

Where is the data that says the immunity is only 7 days? At 7 days one would be looking for antibodies not calculating immunity. Effectiveness should be calculated as the number of new positives in the test vs the control population. There would need to be a minimum number of positives in the control group to deem the data statistically significant and the difference in infection rate would need to also be significant. 
 

I’d like to see where the 7 days came from.

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4 minutes ago, criley4way said:

Nothing FedEx has is able to help with that storage. Vaccine will need to be shipped on dry ice (not a big deal).

I didn't say that FedEx would help with the storage.

They're also testing to see how long it can last in a regular refrigerator (4 C). They think it may last up to five days in that.

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7 minutes ago, iacas said:

I didn't say that FedEx would help with the storage.

They're also testing to see how long it can last in a regular refrigerator (4 C). They think it may last up to five days in that.

They are starting an arm of the study to see if it can last 5 days. I hope it works.

my point still stands the logistics on a large scale is a major logistics issue if the vaccine is not stable at -20 or 4C.

Not impossible but a significant challenge.

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9 hours ago, criley4way said:

I’d like to see where the 7 days came from.


Vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis Analysis evaluated 94 confirmed cases of...
Quote

The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose. 

This is mentioned several times in the press release from Pfizer, and that continuing data will be collected to evaluate the longer term effects, positive and negative.

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23 hours ago, DaveP043 said:

These results apply only to the first 7 days after the second dose

I believe you're reading that incorrectly, Dave. The next sentence provides more of a hint:

Quote

The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose. This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a 2-dose schedule.

The 7-day number means they don't start judging efficacy until 7 days after the second dose, not that they only have results through those 7 days. It takes time for your body to produce antibodies, so they can't give you a vaccine and expose you to the virus three days later.

Now, that 90% number could change, and likely will, but it's not likely to drop much.

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16 minutes ago, iacas said:

I believe you're reading that incorrectly, Dave. The next sentence provides more of a hint:

The 7-day number means they don't start judging efficacy until 7 days after the second dose, not that they only have results through those 7 days. It takes time for your body to produce antibodies, so they can't give you a vaccine and expose you to the virus three days later.

Now, that 90% number could change, and likely will, but it's not likely to drop much.

After a much more detailed re-reading, I have to agree, I screwed up, the data starts at 7 days, it doesn't end there.  Help me understand this next bit: 

Quote

In addition to the primary efficacy endpoints evaluating confirmed COVID-19 cases accruing from 7 days after the second dose, the final analysis now will include, with the approval of the FDA, new secondary endpoints evaluating efficacy based on cases accruing 14 days after the second dose as well. The companies believe that the addition of these secondary endpoints will help align data across all COVID-19 vaccine studies and allow for cross-trial learnings and comparisons between these novel vaccine platforms.

They'll be using a "start data" of 14 days after the second dose, primarily to allow more direct comparisons to other studies of other vaccine candidates.  The two sets of data seemingly could also help indicate how quickly the full effect of the vaccine is realized.

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3 hours ago, dennyjones said:

More schools in Michigan are reverting to virtual because there is a lack of substitute teachers to cover teachers that have to quarantine.  

Same here in Ohio.
The word around the campfire is most of the schools will be fully remote from Thanksgiving to New Years. ... Most of the colleges have already announced they are doing that. Now the high schools, middle and grammar schools are following suit. 

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42 minutes ago, ChetlovesMer said:

Same here in Ohio.
The word around the campfire is most of the schools will be fully remote from Thanksgiving to New Years. ... Most of the colleges have already announced they are doing that. Now the high schools, middle and grammar schools are following suit. 

On this end of the state, it's spreading like a brush fire on a windy day.

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1 hour ago, CarlSpackler said:

On this end of the state, it's spreading like a brush fire on a windy day.

Columbus is the same way ... except like a brush fire on a windy day in which the wind is blowing uphill. 

Stay safe, brother.

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I had Covid-19, I tested positive exactly one month ago today. I had very mild symptoms while my wife was pretty sick. I did, however, lose my sense of smell and it has not returned. I am getting phantom smells. I smell cigarette smoke sometimes even though no one smokes around me. It's weird.

I am a teacher and our governor wants teachers to be one of the first groups to be vaccinated. I wonder if I will need to wait since I had it?  

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So cases are increasing. People are wearing masks mostly. What areas are the sources of transmission? Schools? Most aren’t kids. Restaurants/bars? Workplaces?

Where are people transmitting that they weren’t in August?

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6 minutes ago, iacas said:

So cases are increasing. People are wearing masks mostly. What areas are the sources of transmission? Schools? Most aren’t kids. Restaurants/bars? Workplaces?

Where are people transmitting that they weren’t in August?

Ohio’s Governor said it was from large gatherings like weddings. 

My cousin got it from a youth church group and then gave it to her immediate family while she didn’t show symptoms at the time. 

I think it’s restaurants being lax, and people just gathering more often.

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Friends of ours contracted Coronavirus while attending a church service where masks weren't required.   They are both in the hospital.   He has pre-existing COPD but she is/was healthy but in worse shape now than him.  

 

A newspaper article stated that at a local funeral, about 29 people contact Covid-19. 

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46 minutes ago, iacas said:

So we're still talking about super spreader type situations accounting for much of the spread?

I think so. 

In Ohio it looks like the cases are finally ramping up in the rural areas. 16 out of the top 20 counties ranked by COVID rates, have lower than 50K population. 

image.png

 

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