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1 hour ago, Ole Duffer said:

I had not ever thought it until this pandemic came along, but both my parents were born in March, 1919.  That means both my grandmothers would have been pregnant with them during the height of the 1918 pandemic, and it still would have been an issue when they were born.

That would have been a scary time.

I think the biggest key to conquering COVID-19 is to stop letting the distractors distract.  Just announce how we're going to conquer it, then do it.

Agree about the Internet, that it gives some people a voice who should not have one.

My mother remembers the Polio epidemic too.  Very scary. Four kids on her street died. Two of them were home schooled to protect them and the still got it.

This feels similar to her and she’s mad because were know so much more from a scientific standpoint and people still disregard precautions.

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On 11/30/2020 at 9:22 AM, iacas said:
f6f720d7-27d5-454b-b37e-aba4ee29b851

Moderna announced that it plans to submit its request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for an Emergency Use Authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA-1273.

 

Has there been a super-spreader type event that was held outside?

Yes Sturgis, The Ozarks 4th of July event, some Labor day events in Michigan (can't recall the lake in the southwest), political rallies.

 

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On 11/30/2020 at 12:45 PM, iacas said:

Yeah, that's just not true.

And even if it were, I'm not talking about the Troy event, but just general outdoor events and activities, whether they be Turkey Trots with social distancing between runners or people watching the state finals of a football game from 5 seats away from the nearest other people.

Transmission rates are going to be lower, and I think much lower, outdoors than indoors.

Time to bone up on "Brownian Motion"?

The benefit of being outdoors does not negate the impact of not wearing masks and not socially distancing in crowds. It is an odds game.

Un masked in a small room for 60 min. Probability that either person is positive and infectious x the probability of transmission.

Masked reduces that probability by 95%. Reducing the time reduces it. Being in a large space reduces it. Being outdoors reduces it.

But if there are 50 people you come into contact with it goes up.

Nothing is a guarantee to get it (if I recall transmission between 2 people unmasked in the same home is 50%).

And nothing is perfect protection except isolation.

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20 minutes ago, criley4way said:

Yes Sturgis, The Ozarks 4th of July event, some Labor day events in Michigan (can't recall the lake in the southwest), political rallies.

 

To be fair, as Erik suggested, the Sturgis rally was both outdoors and indoors in restaurants and bars.  The bulk of the infections probably came from the indoor component.

The Ozarks Missouri thing was just plain stupidity.  I get to say that; I'm from Missouri and spent summers in the Ozarks.

Edited by Double Mocha Man
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6 minutes ago, criley4way said:

The benefit of being outdoors does not negate the impact of not wearing masks and not socially distancing in crowds.

It still does. I’m not saying fully, or even necessarily mostly. Studies have said transmission risk is 20x lower outdoors.

If what you’re saying is that being outside doesn’t then let you walk around inside without a mask on… nobody is saying that.

Just now, Double Mocha Man said:

To be fair, as Erik suggested, the Sturgis rally was both outdoors and indoors in restaurants and bars.  The bulk of the infections probably came from the indoor component.

Yes. I’m looking for info on outdoor super-spreader events.

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2 minutes ago, iacas said:

It still does. I’m not saying fully, or even necessarily mostly. Studies have said transmission risk is 20x lower outdoors.

If what you’re saying is that being outside doesn’t then let you walk around inside without a mask on… nobody is saying that.

Yes. I’m looking for info on outdoor super-spreader events.

Problem with this statement is you are asking to prove a negative which is extremely difficult if not impossible in most cases.

 

Does the Stanford data meet the ask

https://sebotero.github.io/papers/COVIDrallies_10_30_2000.pdf

 

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19 minutes ago, criley4way said:

Problem with this statement is you are asking to prove a negative which is extremely difficult if not impossible in most cases.

No I’m not.

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25 minutes ago, iacas said:

No I’m not.

For Sturgis  postulating that the transmission was due to bars (which I believe were outside) and hotels and not the rally outside is only possible that the transmission did not occur due to the inside portion of the event.

And while I agree that each of the outdoor rallies in isolation is a weak correlation to the increase in infections during the following weeks, with multiple events in unique areas it strongly supports the notion that the rallies were a probable cause. 

 

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22 minutes ago, criley4way said:

For Sturgis  postulating that the transmission was due to bars (which I believe were outside) and hotels and not the rally outside is only possible that the transmission did not occur due to the inside portion of the event.

That’s not what’s happening here, no.

I’m simply saying Sturgis doesn’t meet the criteria.

Because it doesn’t.

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On 11/30/2020 at 5:26 PM, Double Mocha Man said:

I have a fear of both hospitals and airplanes.

Justifiable 

12 hours ago, boogielicious said:

Please avoid politics.

Understood, I was trying to but failed.

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18 hours ago, boogielicious said:

My mother remembers the Polio epidemic too.  Very scary. Four kids on her street died. Two of them were home schooled to protect them and the still got it.

 

My mother's son remembers polio.  😉

I remember the scare, and a friend of mine wearing those metal leg braces.  He turned out OK, and I played basketball against him in high school.

We didn't have "vents", but we had "Iron Lungs."

In 1952, the number of polio cases in the U.S. peaked at 57,879, resulting in 3,145 deaths.

 

file-20200317-60901-1gzviny.jpg?ixlib=rb

Polio was nearly eradicated with the Salk vaccine in 1955. At the time, little was known about this mysterious disease that paralyzed and sometimes killed young children.

 

16 minutes ago, Ole Duffer said:

Every minute people who don't matter split hairs on the Internet, 15 more Americans test positive and 1 more dies.

😷

corona-interactive_cases_trends.jpg

Find national and local rates for COVID cases and deaths in the United States.

 

Actually 1 American died every 33 seconds yesterday.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

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21 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

To be fair, as Erik suggested, the Sturgis rally was both outdoors and indoors in restaurants and bars.  The bulk of the infections probably came from the indoor component.

The Ozarks Missouri thing was just plain stupidity.  I get to say that; I'm from Missouri and spent summers in the Ozarks.

I'm from Missouri, and, yes, it was stupid.

But, it has just blended in with all the other stupid things.

Like I said before, lay out the plan, ignore the detractors, carry out the plan.

 

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On 12/1/2020 at 4:47 PM, iacas said:

Yes. I’m looking for info on outdoor super-spreader events.

This is a start (documentation that outdoors is safer):

Quote

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

Outdoor Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Respiratory Viruses, a Systematic Review 

Tommaso Celeste Bulfone, MS,  Mohsen Malekinejad, MD, DrPh,  George W Rutherford, MD, AM, Nooshin Razani, MD, MPH

The Journal of Infectious Diseases, jiaa742, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa742

Published:

29 November 2020

Abstract

Background

While risk of outdoor transmission of respiratory viral infections is hypothesized to be low, there is limited data of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in outdoor compared to indoor settings.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed papers indexed in PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science and pre-prints in Europe PMC through August 12 th, 2020 that described cases of human transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Reports of other respiratory virus transmission were included for reference.

Results

Five identified studies found that a low proportion of reported global SARS-CoV-2 infections have occurred outdoors (<10%) and the odds of indoor transmission was very high compared to outdoors (18.7 times; 95% CI 6.0, 57.9). Five studies described influenza transmission outdoors and two described adenovirus transmission outdoors. There was high heterogeneity in study quality and individual definitions of outdoor settings which limited our ability to draw conclusions about outdoor transmission risks. In general, factors such as duration and frequency of personal contact, lack of personal protective equipment and occasional indoor gathering during a largely outdoor experience were associated with outdoor reports of infection.

Conclusion

Existing evidence supports the wide-held belief that the the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is lower outdoors but there are significant gaps in our understanding of specific pathways.

 

Edited by Missouri Swede
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Why does the outdoors thing "matter" a little bit?

fenway-park-winter-classic-1040x572.jpg

In an effort to try and get some fans back in the seats, four NHL teams are investigating the possibility of hosting their home games outdoors for the coming season.

1 p.m. Thursday: Elliotte Friedman reported on Thursday that at least four NHL teams are exploring the possibility of playing their home games outdoors if it will allow them to have fans in the building. The teams are the Ducks, Bruins, Kings ... and the Penguins.

Friedman reported that the Penguins have looked into both Heinz Field and PNC Park. The Steelers schedule overlapping with the possible start of an NHL season would obviously be an issue.

That's one of the reasons why. Us being golfers is another reason why I'm curious about any super-spreader events that occurred outside only (or even 85%+).

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The most likely scenario for me, 

Quote

Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.
When it comes to Ohio, we think you’re behind 10.0 million others who are at higher risk in your state.
And in Summit County, you’re behind 462,900 others.
If the line in Ohio was represented by about 100 people, this is where you’d be standing:

Basically, I am waiting on herd immunity at this point. 

If I can claim that I am essential worker since I work for a power utility company...

Quote

Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 126.5 million people across the United States.

When it comes to Ohio, we think you’re behind 5.0 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in Summit County, you’re behind 241,400 others.

If the line in Ohio was represented by about 100 people, this is where you’d be standing:

 

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Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 135.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to Michigan, we think you’re behind 4.4 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

This is based upon me being a teacher.   Since I'm only a substitute, and not necessarily looking for work, the wait will be longer.

 

Edited by dennyjones
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I posted elsehwere, but I wonder why they have young adults and children ahead of a 50-year-old?

Isn't the 50yo more likely to develop more severe symptoms, require hospitalization, and/or die?

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