Jump to content
dagolfer18

Cutoff For Players Who Have a Chance

5 posts / 1017 viewsLast Reply

Recommended Posts

I’ll explain the title. In the final round of a major, or any tournament for that matter, what do y’all think is the maximum number of strokes a player can trail by and still say they have a chance? My dad and I were discussing this earlier.

I told him that I thought three strokes behind is the furthest you can be and still have a realistic chance. Four or five behind means you still have a chance, but you need to go low in the final round. Six is on the outside looking in, and more than that is, realistically, out of it, although I’ve heard final round comeback stories from as far back as ten strokes.

So what do y’all think about this? I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts. 

Edited by dagolfer18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

4 hours ago, dagolfer18 said:

what do y’all think is the maximum number of strokes a player can trail by and still say they have a chance? My dad and I were discussing this earlier.

Let’s assume the top 5-ish shoot a few over par. Then I could think something like a 62-63. So probably 9-12 back I can see happening. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

4 hours ago, dagolfer18 said:

I’ll explain the title. In the final round of a major, or any tournament for that matter, what do y’all think is the maximum number of strokes a player can trail by and still say they have a chance? My dad and I were discussing this earlier.

I told him that I thought three strokes behind is the furthest you can be and still have a realistic chance. Four or five behind means you still have a chance, but you need to go low in the final round. Six is on the outside looking in, and more than that is, realistically, out of it, although I’ve heard final round comeback stories from as far back as ten strokes.

So what do y’all think about this? I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts. 

00001139_3.png

Some of the most memorable PGA events have had eventual winners trailing after the 3rd round. Stacker examines some of the biggest comeback wins in golf major history over the past 50...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Part of the ability to come back from behind will depend not just on how many strokes behind but how many players are ahead of the player.  For example, if a golfer is 5 back and in solo 2nd all they need is to shoot 4 under and the leader to drop 1 and they are in a playoff (Unless they get passed from behind).  That is very possible.

However, if they are 5 back and there are 10 ahead of them they may shoot the 4 under and the leader may drop 1 but they still need to outpace the other 9 players which makes the comeback harder.

I think that is part of why the recent PGA was so good to watch for me.  Many players within striking distance in the final round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

If only there were decades of tournament data that could provide statistical clarity to the question. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Welcome to TST! Signing up is free, and you'll see fewer ads and can talk with fellow golf enthusiasts! By using TST, you agree to our Terms of Use, our Privacy Policy, and our Guidelines.

The popup will be closed in 10 seconds...