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NCAA Football 2021


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Congratulations to Georgia.  As an Alabama grad, I'm disappointed, but they played a hell of a game defensively, and Stetson Bennett earned the nickname "Mailman"; he delivered.  He could have easily crumbled after the fumble, but he went out and shredded our defense.

Enjoy your year on top UGA, and we'll see y'all in Atlanta next December.

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It is really really hard to win a game when you are down 2-3 starters. Losing their top WR basically doomed Alabama. You can tell that the chemistry between Young and the other WR was not there.  That offense just struggled if they couldn't hit the deep ball. Their offense just struggled to score TD's. They basically ran into what OSU had trouble with. It is due to not being able to effectively run the ball. 


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Expected Point Added is like strokes gained in golf. It takes, at this position on the field, with this down and distance, what is the expected points scored on average. Like, if you are on the 1 yard line, about to score a TD, and you throw a pick six, that is like the worst play to happen from an expected points added perspective. You were expected to get probably 6+ points added (mostly TD, some FG, some turn over on downs), and you gave up 7 points. 

Obvious, more EPA Differential, like scoring differential, the more times you win than lose. 

So, the graph from Twitter....

Major Underperformers - Toledo & Nebraska
Major Overperformers -  Michigan State & Iowa

So, after Cincinnati got beat by Alabama, their win % actually lines up with their EPA Differential. It wasn't like they overperformed. 




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