NCAA Football 2021

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

think Young is going to get the Heisman, because he had a game winning drive against Auburn, then trashed Georgia. 

This. The talking heads actually had Young having to play against Georgia as a potential Heisman killer. He pulled it off and did the opposite. Gotta give him credit for that. 

[saevel25]

Well OSU is getting the other OSU's defensive coordinator. 

Might turn out well. B12 OSU's total defense was 278 yards per game in a conference that averaged 400-420 yards per game. 

Jim Knowles (American football) - Wikipedia

In 2018, he was hired as DC at B12 OSU. 

Scoring Defense by year - 32, 26, 23, 17. So, they just kept getting better year by year, good sign. 

We'll see. From what I heard, he is pretty aggressive, and likes to show multiple looks. I am a fan versus our vanilla defense we have been going with the past two years. 

 

[dennyjones]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

From what I heard, he is pretty aggressive, and likes to show multiple looks.

I like to see defenses play this way even if it is Ohio.

[saevel25]

2 minutes ago, dennyjones said:

I like to see defenses play this way even if it is Ohio.

Like, you have to now. Teams are getting too good at scheming people open if you just play base defense. 

[saevel25]

The B10 West needs to fire all their coaches, lol.. 

 

 

[Vinsk]

So what are your thoughts on Alabama/Cincinnati @saevel25? I think if Alabama shows up like they did against Georgia it’ll be a massacre. Maybe then the committee will think twice about boosting up an ‘outlier’ team that has one good win.

[saevel25]

4 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

So what are your thoughts on Alabama/Cincinnati @saevel25? I think if Alabama shows up like they did against Georgia it’ll be a massacre. Maybe then the committee will think twice about boosting up an ‘outlier’ team that has one good win.

I think Cincy is a good team. I am a fan of mixing metrics with recruiting. Also, there are matchups as well. 

From a metric standpoint...

Cincy's defense is good. Like Top-10 good. They will have two NFL guys at DB. Their QB is one of those ones you hate to face. Scrappy, makes the key big play (with legs or throwing it). 

If Cincy can slow the game down, they have a legit shot in the 4th quarter. SP+ has Bama by 3 points on a neutral field. I know we have been crapping on Cincy for their schedule. Really, when you break down strength of schedule. An elite team would average just under 1-loss on Cincy's schedule (.85). Lets say Georgia's schedule, an elite team would average just shy of 2-losss. (1.9-ish). 

Cincy did what an elite team should have done versus their schedule, have no losses. Georgia did what they should have done, have 2-losses or less. 

A good team would average 2-losses versus Cincy's schedule, and an average team would average 5-losses. Their SOS was middle of the road. You consider an average team being 6-6. There are X amount of wins available. Someone is going 1-11, and someone else is going 11-1. Average should be around 6-6. 

For me, Cincy deserved to be there, because they did what an elite team should have done, go undefeated against that schedule. 

Here is a table showing the +/- over expected elite teams versus your schedule...

Team	Wins	Losses	ELS	+/-
Alabama	11	1	2.6	1.6
Georgia	11	1	2.0	1.0
Michigan	12	1	1.8	0.8
Cincinnati	12	0	0.8	0.8
Notre Dame	11	1	1.3	0.3
Ole Miss	9	2	2.1	0.1
Michigan State	9	2	1.9	-0.1
Ohio State	10	2	1.7	-0.4
Louisiana	11	1	0.6	-0.4

Basically, our college football playoff selection played out. Anyone near zero or above played like an elite team. The top 4 did it the best. 

If I had to pick the game... It will be strength of Alabama's offense versus strength of Cincy's defense. 

Do not look past Cincy's offense. Top 15 in passing average and passer rating. Top 10 in rushing average. Its just they slow the game down, ranked 83rd in total # of plays run. The biggest X-Factor is the athletes. There are times when a less athletic defense can hold down a very athletic offense. Think OSU (b12) versus OU. OU clearly had more talent on offense, and OSU (b12) held them to 9 points only in the 2nd half. 

If i had to pick a score... I will go on the wild side... Cincy 33-30 over Alabama. Last second FG to win. Cincy holds onto the ball, and keeps the explosive plays to a minimum. 

Georgia V Michigan. Talk about a game were teams are going to try to see who can win the trenches. It will come down to if Michigan can convert on some key third and long plays through the air. If Michigan gets any sort of running game going, like 4-5 yard average. They have a good shot at beating Georgia. I just think Georgia's defense is built precisely to take on these sorts of offenses. 

I will say Georgia 31 Michigan 24. 

I have Georgia facing Cincy in the national championship. 

I will go with Ohio versus the World!!!! Cincy 28, Georgia 21. 

 

[Vinsk]

54 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I think Cincy is a good team. I am a fan of mixing metrics with recruiting. Also, there are matchups as well. 

From a metric standpoint...

Cincy's defense is good. Like Top-10 good. They will have two NFL guys at DB. Their QB is one of those ones you hate to face. Scrappy, makes the key big play (with legs or throwing it). 

If Cincy can slow the game down, they have a legit shot in the 4th quarter. SP+ has Bama by 3 points on a neutral field. I know we have been crapping on Cincy for their schedule. Really, when you break down strength of schedule. An elite team would average just under 1-loss on Cincy's schedule (.85). Lets say Georgia's schedule, an elite team would average just shy of 2-losss. (1.9-ish). 

Cincy did what an elite team should have done versus their schedule, have no losses. Georgia did what they should have done, have 2-losses or less. 

A good team would average 2-losses versus Cincy's schedule, and an average team would average 5-losses. Their SOS was middle of the road. You consider an average team being 6-6. There are X amount of wins available. Someone is going 1-11, and someone else is going 11-1. Average should be around 6-6. 

For me, Cincy deserved to be there, because they did what an elite team should have done, go undefeated against that schedule. 

Here is a table showing the +/- over expected elite teams versus your schedule...

Team	Wins	Losses	ELS	+/-
Alabama	11	1	2.6	1.6
Georgia	11	1	2.0	1.0
Michigan	12	1	1.8	0.8
Cincinnati	12	0	0.8	0.8
Notre Dame	11	1	1.3	0.3
Ole Miss	9	2	2.1	0.1
Michigan State	9	2	1.9	-0.1
Ohio State	10	2	1.7	-0.4
Louisiana	11	1	0.6	-0.4

Basically, our college football playoff selection played out. Anyone near zero or above played like an elite team. The top 4 did it the best. 

If I had to pick the game... It will be strength of Alabama's offense versus strength of Cincy's defense. 

Do not look past Cincy's offense. Top 15 in passing average and passer rating. Top 10 in rushing average. Its just they slow the game down, ranked 83rd in total # of plays run. The biggest X-Factor is the athletes. There are times when a less athletic defense can hold down a very athletic offense. Think OSU (b12) versus OU. OU clearly had more talent on offense, and OSU (b12) held them to 9 points only in the 2nd half. 

If i had to pick a score... I will go on the wild side... Cincy 33-30 over Alabama. Last second FG to win. Cincy holds onto the ball, and keeps the explosive plays to a minimum. 

Georgia V Michigan. Talk about a game were teams are going to try to see who can win the trenches. It will come down to if Michigan can convert on some key third and long plays through the air. If Michigan gets any sort of running game going, like 4-5 yard average. They have a good shot at beating Georgia. I just think Georgia's defense is built precisely to take on these sorts of offenses. 

I will say Georgia 31 Michigan 24. 

I have Georgia facing Cincy in the national championship. 

I will go with Ohio versus the World!!!! Cincy 28, Georgia 21. 

 

I get the metrics. But they’re so hypothetical. ‘What a ‘good’ team would do with their schedule’ is such a hypothetical realm I just can’t see it playing out. Those metrics that Cincy generated were against poor teams. Period. Boise States QB from several years looked phenomenal. But he was throwing to wide open receivers with no pass rushing to speak of. Needless to say he rode the bench in Detroit and I think faded out. 

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

I get the metrics. But they’re so hypothetical. ‘What a ‘good’ team would do with their schedule’ is such a hypothetical realm I just can’t see it playing out. Those metrics that Cincy generated were against poor teams. Period. Boise States QB from several years looked phenomenal. But he was throwing to wide open receivers with no pass rushing to speak of. Needless to say he rode the bench in Detroit and I think faded out. 

I don’t think so.

if you have 20+ years of data. It says, teams in the top 3% of teams will have x amount of wins versus y schedule. It gives you a sense of what went down. I get it, specific teams can be above or below that win mark. You could have a top-5 team with 3-4 losses. You can have a 20th ranked team with no losses per the metrics. It’s really hard to say this team should beat this team by x amount.

except maybe Vegas, but it’s more manipulating what people think should happen. 
 

[Vinsk]

22 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I don’t think so.

if you have 20+ years of data. It says, teams in the top 3% of teams will have x amount of wins versus y schedule. It gives you a sense of what went down. I get it, specific teams can be above or below that win mark. You could have a top-5 team with 3-4 losses. You can have a 20th ranked team with no losses per the metrics. It’s really hard to say this team should beat this team by x amount.

except maybe Vegas, but it’s more manipulating what people think should happen. 
 

I just don’t think what Cincinnati did this year is worthy of being in the CFP. Especially when look at what the other teams actually did. Not what the metrics say, what actually happened. What if Cincy had OhioSt’s last four games? Hell even OSU’s? Hey Michigan, what did you do to get here? Well…we beat OhioSt. Alabama? We beat Georgia. Cincy? Well…we beat ND three months ago and rode the unranked for the rest. Just doesn’t sit right to me.

[Double Mocha Man]

3 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I will say Georgia 31 Michigan 24. 

I have Georgia facing Cincy in the national championship. 

Cincy 28, Georgia 21. 

@saevel25 You know, they'll now be posting your predictions in the Alabama, Michigan and Georgia locker rooms as motivation!

[Golfingdad]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

I just don’t think what Cincinnati did this year is worthy of being in the CFP. Especially when look at what the other teams actually did. Not what the metrics say, what actually happened. What if Cincy had OhioSt’s last four games? Hell even OSU’s? Hey Michigan, what did you do to get here? Well…we beat OhioSt. Alabama? We beat Georgia. Cincy? Well…we beat ND three months ago and rode the unranked for the rest. Just doesn’t sit right to me.

Who belongs in that 4th spot if not Cincinnati?

[saevel25]

16 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

Who belongs in that 4th spot if not Cincinnati?

Exactly. 

the only other 1 loss team is ND, who lost to Cincy. I don’t think you can put in a 2 loss team.

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

Exactly. 

the only other 1 loss team is ND, who lost to Cincy. I don’t think you can put in a 2 loss team.

Well it’s true that’s a conundrum. But would Cincinnati be undefeated had they played OnioSt’s schedule? Would OhioSt be a two loss team if they played Cincy’s schedule? I may have considered a two loss team this year due to Cincinnati being a bit of a mystery. Maybe I’ll eat some crow and Cincy will put up a game against Alabama. I doubt it though. 

[saevel25]

23 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

But would Cincinnati be undefeated had they played OnioSt’s schedule?

Cincy probably has 1 or 2 losses. I think Cincy would be favored over everyone except Michigan. 

24 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Would OhioSt be a two loss team if they played Cincy’s schedule? I may have considered a two loss team this year due to Cincinnati being a bit of a mystery. Maybe I’ll eat some crow and Cincy will put up a game against Alabama. I doubt it though. 

I just think Cincy deserves a shot. 

[Vinsk]

10 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Cincy probably has 1 or 2 losses. I think Cincy would be favored over everyone except Michigan. 

I just think Cincy deserves a shot. 

Well at least it’s something different for a change. I can live with that. Not looking forward to a Alabama/Georgia rematch.

[Golfingdad]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

Cincy probably has 1 or 2 losses. I think Cincy would be favored over everyone except Michigan. 

I just think Cincy deserves a shot. 

Yeah I agree.  I think the committee tends to agree with vinsk and would normally have no issue whatsoever excluding the G5 teams if/ when they can, and they were about 8” away from being able to do that were it not for one good Baylor tackle. 🙂

Cincinnati has done everything asked of them - they earned their shot.

[saevel25]

I think this might be the best catch I've ever seen. I understand OBJ had some stupid one-handed catch over his head. At least he was in position to have leverage to catch the ball. 

This catch that JSN made through a defender, is absurd. I do not understand how the ball just doesn't bounce off his hand. I do wish there was one more camera angle to this to show it better...