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Student (College) Loans


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On 12/5/2021 at 4:32 PM, Big C said:

I've been thinking a lot about this topic myself. I have two kids, ages 5 & 7 and I have been pretty diligent about putting money away into their 529 college savings plan. Even so, if tuition inflation continues at it's current rate, I would probably need around $800,000 to be send them to any college they want debt-free. That's just not going to happen. 

I don't agree that schools don't have to compete on price, but I do think that society's emphasis on a 4 year degree as a pre-requisite for success has led to a "cost be damned" mentality when it comes to choosing schools. For the last 30 years, it was never a question that the value of a degree was greater than the cost for most parents. Now we are starting to see chinks in that armor, as more stories of college graduates who are living under the crushing burden of their debt come to light.

I think the real change will start to happen in several years, when this generation of 20 and 30 somethings, who lived and raised families while paying down their 6 figure student loans start to send their own kids to college. They are going to know that burden first hand and are not going to want their own children to have to deal with it. I think the middle tier private schools will be the first to feel the pinch. Will Dennison be able to charge $100k per student in 10 years? What about Claremont McKenna in California or Brandeis in Massachusetts? I think it's unlikely.

Dave Ramsey has been beating this drum for awhile and I happen to agree with him. If you aren't going to Harvard/Yale (or a peer institution), or a state school, you are probably getting ripped off for your college degree. Once parents start to realize this en masse and speak with their checkbooks, the dominoes will start to fall. 

I know that 75% of people who have student loans have taken them for a bachelor's degree, the figures are imposing

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1 hour ago, Double Mocha Man said:

Sometimes throwing money at the problem solves the problem, my golf game notwithstanding.

But the money will end up in the familiar collection area - universities. Aren't they acquiring money disproportionately already - 5X+ times in the last generation or per posts in the thread. It will only embolden them to keep raising costs. No?  

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46 minutes ago, iacas said:

Because it’s one data point and a small sample size. Same as always.

Going forward I will only point to it as an example of out of controlness... if that's a word. 

1 hour ago, GolfLug said:

But the money will end up in the familiar collection area - universities. Aren't they acquiring money disproportionately already - 5X+ times in the last generation or per posts in the thread. It will only embolden them to keep raising costs. No?  

Yes

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At the three universities that I earned degrees the cost of in-state tuition has risen 10X over 25-40 years. Out of state tuition costs 2.75 to 3.3X in-state at the same institutions plus the main branch of our local U. Over the same period the purchasing power of a dollar has increase about 3X, so higher education cost has increased disproportionally. Room and board can easily add another $15-$20k depending on location. In my opinion, the cost of higher education should be reined in; and there are many ways universities could reduce operating costs. 

The value proposition of attending college is highly dependent on the university, the degree program, and the individual. The idea of borrowing hundreds of thousands of dollars to gain employment in a field in which earnings max out at US median income is a recipe for endless debt. Personally I am opposed to massive bailouts in most cases, and a believer in taking responsibility. On the other hand the debt from the bailout is not going to be come due in my lifetime. Maybe there will be a short term benefit to the economy before payment from all the bailouts comes due as this generation ages.

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6 hours ago, iacas said:

Y'all need to stop quoting ONE college or university as your "proof" of a ten-fold increase in costs.

No chart anywhere bears this out.

My data is 10 years old with last year in 2012. I think there has been some pressure for schools to contain costs in recent history. However, it is based on one state for public schools. My observation was that this increase was typical across the public universities in Ohio for that period: Ohio University, The Ohio State University, University of Cincinnati, among some others.

I presented this as some data points, not as support for any argument.

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3 hours ago, Carl3 said:

My data is 10 years old with last year in 2012. I think there has been some pressure for schools to contain costs in recent history. However, it is based on one state for public schools. My observation was that this increase was typical across the public universities in Ohio for that period: Ohio University, The Ohio State University, University of Cincinnati, among some others.

I presented this as some data points, not as support for any argument.

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-college/articles/2017-09-20/see-20-years-of-tuition-growth-at-national-universities

One study of 391 "ranked" public and private "national universities" from 2001-2021. I will look for data for the 40 year period.


The NCES Fast Facts Tool provides quick answers to many education questions (National Center for Education Statistics). Get answers on Early Childhood Education, Elementary and Secondary Education and Higher...

The second link takes a bit of interpretation but covers 1985-2019.

 

And another unvalidated bit of data.

average-annual-tuition-and-fees-at-publi

The average cost of college by year, expressed in current dollars and adjusted for inflation, itemized and broken down by institution type.

 

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23 hours ago, Denny Bang Bang said:

To a certain extent, this already exists.  I believe military provides higher education benefits...

Yep, the G.I. Bill. I used mine for education and a VA loan to purchased my first home.

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On 12/5/2021 at 4:56 PM, Carl3 said:

Scale back the Federal backing of student loans. Allow students to default like any other loan. Universities can offer loans in conjunction with private banks. The universities would be responsible for making sure they have good, sound programs and solid students who can then get appropriate jobs after graduation to repay the loans.

If a university pushes too many marginal degree programs to students who have questionable academic talents, they will pay the price with high defaults that hurts their bottom line. That is the only way to change this. There is nothing stopping universities coming up with endless silly programs, recruiting foolish or desperate people to take out huge loans that they will never be able to repay. We have laws against the payday loan people abusing the poorest in society, but here we are abusing the naïve youth of our nation who lack experience at life, more about student loan at at Fit My Money website.

Additionally, too many people go to universities. Some schools have programs for the mentally challenged and learning disabled. Why saddle them and their parents with useless debt? In some cases this has become a system rigged to fleece a class of people and the government is complicit. We are allowing the government at the state and federal level take advantage of its citizenry.

With the government backing this scheme, prices naturally go up. If the government allows these loans to be written off, the prices will go higher thereby compounding the problem.

I have 4 children who have earned a total of 7 university degrees and none have had any student debt, so I have thought a lot about this. I have also interviewed a lot of new graduates some of who have had loan amounts that are ridiculous. Two guys in particular with BS in mechanical engineering with loans just under $200k. To me that is a red flag they won't be able to solve basic engineering problems.

 

Student loan debt in the USA has grown rapidly since 2006-2007. The total debt was $1.73 trillion by July 2021, with almost half of that being graduate school loans; the average Bachelor's degree borrower has about $30,000 of debt upon graduation. The sums are unbelievable. We have first economy in the world and the highest price for education - there's a paradox.  

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22 minutes ago, RubyDelong said:

Student loan debt in the USA has grown rapidly since 2006-2007. The total debt was $1.73 trillion by July 2021, with almost half of that being graduate school loans; the average Bachelor's degree borrower has about $30,000 of debt upon graduation. The sums are unbelievable. We have first economy in the world and the highest price for education - there's a paradox.  

Welcome to The Sand Trap. Please check out the rest of the site. First and foremost, this is a golf forum. Thanks.

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Making college free is akin to a short-term Universal Basic Income system as it would give people a free ride for a number of years. Everyone could decide to go and party for a number of years on their rich uncle's (Sam) tab. A certain percentage would take it serious, but many would not. You might even see some Amish join in during their Rumspringa 😆. Trust me, I went to The Ohio State University when they took all-comers. 60% did not make it to their sophomore year. It was a huge party for many.

We do basically have free higher education in the US. If you have high enough test scores you can go for free. If you are a great athlete you can go for free.

No country that wants to be on top of the world would subsidize foolish malinvestment. The CCP would not do this. They have about 300M rich/middle class and about 1B peasants. To be a first rate country  you would do the opposite and only allow a select group to to study at a university. We use to put students on tracks in high school, but that became unpopular when we decided not to label people. You had the college track, the skilled trades, and then a group that no one knew what to do with.

80 years ago a high school education would be fairly equivalent to what a 2-year degree might be today. There is a lot of remedial classwork happening at the college level. Why not make the student go back to high school until they are ready to take calculus and until they can read at a 12th grade level? Just look at the normal distribution of intelligence and you will see that most people are below what used to be considered a minimum to do true college-level work, which is about half a standard deviation above the norm. There are about 2.5 to 3 times as many students going to a college than 50 years ago. 

Our country will continue to struggle until we come to our senses. A society can only deny reality for so long. In addition to the high interest in free college and universal basic income (UBI) from our youth, there is also the anti-work (Google this) concepts gaining some traction. Our enemies must be enjoying all of this nonsense being lapped up by our country's youth. Goof off in high school. Take remedial classes at a university for 4 years for free, then get on the UBI bandwagon until the anti-work movement takes hold. Work is for losers.🤣

 

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8 minutes ago, Carl3 said:

Making college free is akin to a short-term Universal Basic Income system as it would give people a free ride for a number of years. Everyone could decide to go and party for a number of years on their rich uncle's (Sam) tab.

Disagree.  You would have to keep up a certain grade point average.  And the profs would be held accountable if they were involved in grade inflation.

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54 minutes ago, Carl3 said:

Making college free is akin to a short-term Universal Basic Income system as it would give people a free ride for a number of years. Everyone could decide to go and party for a number of years on their rich uncle's (Sam) tab. A certain percentage would take it serious, but many would not. You might even see some Amish join in during their Rumspringa 😆. Trust me, I went to The Ohio State University when they took all-comers. 60% did not make it to their sophomore year. It was a huge party for many.

We do basically have free higher education in the US. If you have high enough test scores you can go for free. If you are a great athlete you can go for free.

No country that wants to be on top of the world would subsidize foolish malinvestment. The CCP would not do this. They have about 300M rich/middle class and about 1B peasants. To be a first rate country  you would do the opposite and only allow a select group to to study at a university. We use to put students on tracks in high school, but that became unpopular when we decided not to label people. You had the college track, the skilled trades, and then a group that no one knew what to do with.

80 years ago a high school education would be fairly equivalent to what a 2-year degree might be today. There is a lot of remedial classwork happening at the college level. Why not make the student go back to high school until they are ready to take calculus and until they can read at a 12th grade level? Just look at the normal distribution of intelligence and you will see that most people are below what used to be considered a minimum to do true college-level work, which is about half a standard deviation above the norm. There are about 2.5 to 3 times as many students going to a college than 50 years ago. 

Our country will continue to struggle until we come to our senses. A society can only deny reality for so long. In addition to the high interest in free college and universal basic income (UBI) from our youth, there is also the anti-work (Google this) concepts gaining some traction. Our enemies must be enjoying all of this nonsense being lapped up by our country's youth. Goof off in high school. Take remedial classes at a university for 4 years for free, then get on the UBI bandwagon until the anti-work movement takes hold. Work is for losers.🤣

 

Good post

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17 minutes ago, woodzie264 said:

Good post

It would be if it didn't account for some key issues in the future. Primarily, automation. There will just not be enough jobs out there to sustain our population. This idea that jobs will be there. Even trade jobs, is more likely not to be there. 

With the middle class decimated over the past 50 years, there is no way to have a sustainable way to get out of poverty like there was before. You use to be able to get a good union factory job nearby and work there for 35 years and retire. That does not exist anymore. The only way to get that level of job that pays as much as it use to is to hopefully get a management job somewhere. Like, a manager at Walmart. Instead, you have maybe a handful of manager positions at one store, if that. Where you could have hundreds of factory jobs that progress to a good pay level. 

Middle class or above paying jobs are scarce right now, and will get more scarce. 

There is a big issue we have as a country, let majority of the country fight over minimum wage jobs with no way to advance, or come up with a creative solution. Right now, things are going to get worse because we assume we can go back to how it use to be. 

To bring this back on topic. The more people with higher education, the more diverse their experience and knowledge will be. The more chance we will get a creative idea to fix our problems. So, lets make education as accessible as possible 😛 There, I kept it on topic. 😛 

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12 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

You use to be able to get a good union factory job nearby and work there for 35 years and retire. That does not exist anymore. 

Middle class or above paying jobs are scarce right now, and will get more scarce. 

Hey @saevel25

If you know anyone looking for those types of jobs, tell them to move to the Columbus or Dayton area. I have to tell you that right NOW the company I work for can't find anyone willing to take a well paying factory job. Every company I call on (Literally every one of them) is looking for factory workers, and assemblers. If you can pass a drug test, they will even train you. Around here, factory workers and assemblers are in super high demand right now. 

BUT, the number one job opening at all the companies I call on right now... WELDERS! If you can weld and pass a drug test I can get you a job tomorrow at your choice of a dozen places making more than most people with advanced degrees.

I know its a similar situation with plumbers. If you're a plumber, holy cow are you in high demand right now. 

Right now, at this exact moment, at least around here, the trades are really desperate for people. 

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12 hours ago, RubyDelong said:

the average Bachelor's degree borrower has about $30,000 of debt upon graduation. The sums are unbelievable.

I graduated with my bachelors in 2001, just over $30K in student loan debt, with my first professional job paying $26K.  I paid it off just fine, and deferred  to a retirement plan during that time on top of it.  Lived within my means, worked hard to increase my value to employers, which resulted in pay increases and promotions.  That type of path is still available today, for those who earn it.

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