10 Predictions for the Upcoming Decade

[ControlJunkie]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...me=sobel_jason

ESPN golf analyst Jason Sobel has made 10 predictions for the next decade. Everyone take a look, I'd like to see if you agree or disagree. Here's my take on his predictions:

1. There will be a new No. 1-ranked player.
To speak for the entire upcoming decade would be hard to do, but I think this all relies on whether Tiger continues to play in his early 40's. Personally, I kinda think he will. Of course, I don't know the guy, and I don't know what his plans are, but I think he'd be bored with course design or whatever else it is that may be an option. If he continues to play, I think there's a good possibility he remains NOP for the entire decade. Until there is a 2nd ranked player that stays in that spot for a prolonged period of time, Tiger comfortably holds on to his position.

2. There will be more "diversity" on the PGA Tour.
I wouldn't say this is a very bold prediction, I mean, wouldn't it just make sense that this trend continues as golf increases in popularity around the world?

3. There will be another 59.
Part of me says no for the upcoming year, but it's a possibility, sure. For all we know, it could happen this weekend in Hawaii.

4. There will be a new oldest major champion.
I disagree with this one. I thought Tom Watson was a fluke, and after Augusta, I'm not sure KP will make another run at a Major without choking. I do think KP will win a tournament or two this year, but he wont have the success he had last year. Am I saying it's not possible for someone like Cink, Harrington, Mickelson, or Goosen to pull one out in 8-10 years from now? No, I'm just saying it's highly unlikely with the number of quality, young competition.

5. There will be an 8,000-yard course.
Sure, why not. And Quiros could still drive the green on the par 5s. Obviously I'm joking about that part, but I've pointed out many times in other threads how the average drive of the longest player has gradually increased since Tiger turned pro. In the past 9 years, it has gone from around 300 yards to 312 yards. If that trend continues, the average for the longest player could conceivably be near 330 yards, with others in the field pretty close behind. So why not extend a few to 8000? Sobel mentions the groove rule change, and I disagree with him a bit there. I think at first, you will see players lean towards accuracy instead of distance, especially after a few shots from the rough fly the green or dont check like they expect.

6. There will be serious talks to include all players in either a Ryder or Presidents Cup competition.
Sure there may be talks, but that doesn't mean it will happen. Like he says, it's of greater benefit to organizers to retain the status quo. With organizers and sponsors dropping like flies, I don't think anyone is willing to take any big risks, at least for the next few years.

7. There will be a combination PGA Tour/LPGA event.
While this would certainly give the LPGA some much needed attention, I'm not so sure it will happen. It would be interesting to watch, for sure, but I'm not so sure if Michelle Wie or Brittany Lincicome driving past some of the men on a few holes would be in the best interest of some of the guys.

8. There will be more non-sponsored tournaments.
This depends on what happens in the economic arena. When everything rebounds, companies will be looking to spend on anything to get their name out there again. I kinda think you'll see some technology companies get in the mix on some big events. Couldn't you see the former Buick Invitational being the Microsoft Invitational or even the Apple St. Jude Classic??? If those two were to sponsor events, don't think Google wouldn't be far behind.

9. Total PGA Tour prize money will continue to decrease.
Maybe for this year and next, but I'd expect it to follow along with the economy. I hardly think it will gradually decrease throughout the entire decade. Give it a year or two, and it will begin to rise again.

10. There will be a new PGA Tour commissioner.
Again, this one is easily believable. In 10 years, Finchem will be 72. If the trend in #9 continues, I'd say look for it sooner than later. I'd think the Tour may realize it needs some younger blood in the commissioner's chair, someone who can help to get some of those sponsors back.

So, what's your take on all of these? Do you have any additional predictions for the next decade?

[iacas]

1. There will be a new No. 1-ranked player.

This falls under "duh" for me. Tiger will be basically retired in 5-8 years. So of course there'll be a new #1.

2. There will be more "diversity" on the PGA Tour.

Sure. There can't be LESS, after all.

3. There will be another 59.

Sure. A decade is a long time.

4. There will be a new oldest major champion.

Nah. Not seeing it. When was the last new "oldest" guy? O'Meara? No. Irwin in 1990?

5. There will be an 8,000-yard course.

Maybe, but I say that's the total yardage, not how it's set up on any day.

6. There will be serious talks to include all players in either a Ryder or Presidents Cup competition.

Define "serious." If it happens it'll happen at the end of the decade. And only if there's a decline in interest, because the PGA Tour and the PGA both like to make their money.

7. There will be a combination PGA Tour/LPGA event.

Nah. It wouldn't benefit the PGA Tour at all.

8. There will be more non-sponsored tournaments.

Gee, really going out on a limb there. We already have one this year so far, so that's more than last year. He's right already!

9. Total PGA Tour prize money will continue to decrease.

Short- and mid-term, sure. Long-term, maybe not. It might pull back up to even. Which, given inflation, is a decline.

10. There will be a new PGA Tour commissioner.

Sure. When Tiger retires, Finchem will shortly before or after.

[sean_miller]

What he said.

1. That new knee can't last forever.
2. Name 10 non-white PGA regulars. And . . . go.
4. That depends on whether or not the PGA tour sees that as a good thing. A few impossible pin placements can do wonders.
5. Of course there will be. How else will they sell more hybrids and wedges?
6. 3 teams? Does that work in match play? A round robin tournament? Meh.
7. LPGA and Nationwide tour sounds more reasonable.
8. I doubt sponsoring a golf tournament will sell more PCs or Macs. Big Macs maybe.
9. A reduction in the number of events would make some tournaments more prestigious. Or not. Reduction in prize money may lead to weaker fields.
10. What does Tim Finchem do now?

[Shindig]

One thing is for certain: a decade from now, we can look back with 2020 hindsight.

Nah. Not seeing it. When was the last new "oldest" guy? O'Meara? No. Irwin in 1990?

Nicklaus in '86, I thought?

2. Name 10 non-white PGA regulars. And . . . go.

Tiger Woods (freebie). Ryuji Imada, K.J. Choi, Vijay Singh, Camilo Villegas, Anthony Kim, Kevin Na, Y.E. Yang, Charlie Wi, Angel Cabrera, Arjun Atwal, Jose Coceres. Are the two Maruyamas still PGA Regulars? Shigeki was at one point. In any case, there's more than ten.

[sean_miller]

One thing is for certain: a decade from now, we can look back with 2020 hindsight.

Wow, and I've actually heard of 8 of those guys - good job!

[iacas]

One thing is for certain: a decade from now, we can look back with 2020 hindsight.

Hardy har.

Nicklaus in '86, I thought?

Maybe I'm brain farting, but 1990 is more recent than 1986, no?

[bman1313]

When Hale won in 90' he was younger than Nicklaus in 86'.

[iacas]

When Hale won in 90' he was younger than Nicklaus in 86'.

And neither of them are older than Julius Boros, which is what Sobel was talking about. I was trying to give him better odds that he'll be right by saying an "oldest to win" record will be set in

any individual major... and the most recent of those was 1990 by Hale Irwin, which is why I don't think it's going to happen. If Sobel thinks someone older than Boros will win, I think he's crazy. I don't even think someone older than Irwin will win the U.S. Open and set a new record there. Nicklaus has the second youngest age, in fact, of the "oldest major winners" list for each of the majors. I have the list as (y/m/d): PGA Championship (Julius Boros, 1968, 48/4/18) Masters (Jack Nicklaus, 1986, 46/2/23) British Open (Old Tom Morris, 1867, 46/3/5) U.S. Open (Hale Irwin, 1990, 45/0/15) They get younger from there and include de Vicenzo ('67 British at 44/0/93), Vardon in the 1914 British Open (44/1/10), Floyd in the 1986 U.S. Open (43/9/11), and Ray in the 1920 U.S. Open (43/4/16).

[Shindig]

Maybe I'm brain farting, but 1990 is more recent than 1986, no?

I forgot about Boros, and thought it was for the oldest for a major ever. Had I been right in forgetting Boros, though, it seems I'd be wrong with giving that title to Nicklaus anyway. In any case, I was wrong on that one.

[iacas]

I forgot about Boros, and thought it was for the oldest for a major ever. Had I been right in forgetting Boros, though, it seems I'd be wrong with giving that title to Nicklaus anyway. In any case, I was wrong on that one.

Yeah, as I said above, I was trying to give Sobel better odds that someone would set a single-major "oldest" record, which is why I even started talking about the most recent guy to do THAT, which was Irwin in 1990.

I think the odds that someone's going to beat Boros are between slim and none, and as they say, slim just left town.

[Big_M]

Yeah, as I said above, I was trying to give Sobel better odds that someone would set a single-major "oldest" record, which is why I even started talking about the most recent guy to do THAT, which was Irwin in 1990.

As far as being the oldest in THAT major... about the ONLY shot would be Vijay at this years US Open... at least that's the only one I see on the horizon right now. Really though... this prediction is a crap shoot, anything COULD happen, however unlikely.

[FHopper]

Hispanics are white if of Euro decent and Spaniards certainly are white. Make the list old school/simple, black, white, red, or yellow. Bottom line is yellow is exploding and diversity will explode with the Olympic connection.
Where was Notah in that list?
It would be very cool if Tiger set being the oldest as one of his goals, too bad I won't be alive to see it.

[Acropo]

No. 4 - new 'oldest'

I think this is very possible and might happen this year, at St Andrews, depending on wind and pin placement.

Why?

Because Tom Watson came soooooooo close this year and Greg Norman contended last year, so it's already established as distinctly possible.

St Andrews is the shortest of the four Major courses this year and there is a premium on accuracy, rather than length.

The oldies have played there a few times and know their way around.

There is a wave of oldies who are still playing well and could challenge, including Bernhard Langer (52); Ian Woosnam (52) and even Sam Torrance (56), who are all doing well on the Seniors' Tour. Anyone who mentions Sandy Lyle is away with the fairies, imho. Anyone who mentions Monty does so at their own risk (sorry, Erik - I couldn't resist it!! )

Others who could be in the frame: Nick Price (previous winner); Tom Lehman - and maybe someone out of left field; everyone overlooked Watson until he put himslef into contention and - unbelievably - stayed there.

While I would like to see Nick Dougherty, Sergio or Rory McIlroy make the breakthrough and would love to see a UK player win on home soil, I do think there is a distinct possibility of a veteran winner.

Would it be good for the game?

Welllllll - must be honest that someone who looked like Julius Boros would have put me off. But the Watson/Norman stories were so good, the interest was so huge, I think that yes, it would be good for the game - and a welcome distraction from other off-course ongoings. A fairy story of an old gunslinger coming into town and snatching one more piece of glory would go down just fine.

A broken-down old has-been lucking into it before going off to stick his head in a pitcher of whisky, on the other hand, would not!

Anyway - there's my 2c-worth.

[Chilli Dipper]

No. 4 - new 'oldest'

Neither Langer, Woosnam, nor Torrance have past champion exemptions for the Open Championship (though the former two are exempt for the Masters). They'd have to make it through local qualifying just to take part, and with the British and U.S. Senior Opens being held the two consecutive weeks after the Open, I don't see them (or any other competitive senior player lacking an exemption) bothering to try.

The most glaring name missing from that list of old-timers is Nick Faldo, who has permission from the various broadcasting entities he works for to compete at St. Andrews. He was first noticed there after finishing seventh as a 20-year-old in 1978, won there in 1990, and finished 11th there in 2005. The man is still in good shape, and I'm sure he wants one more crack at tournament golf. Oh, and for the record: the defending Senior U.S. and British Open and PGA Championship winners are Fred Funk, Loren Roberts, and Michael Allen respectively. Nah, I don't see it, either.

[meaculpa]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...me=sobel_jason

actually, it has not gradually increased. stayed pretty level during the last 6 years, and again for some years before that.

my prediction: the longest driver average from 2015-2020 will be roughly the same as it was during 2005-2010. 8,000 yard course will probably build, just for the sake of a establishing a benchmark.

[Clambake]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...me=sobel_jason

Well, given that the San Diego tourney is less than two weeks away and hasn't signed up a sponsor, this prediction is pretty much already a slam dunk. The Century Club (the group that runs the San Diego PGA event) has acknowledged that talks to bring in a sponsor to replace Buick have not succeeded, and the tournement will be held as the San Diego Open with the PGA Tour accepting responsibility for the prize money, etc. Although it is sad that they weren't able to round up a sponsor, I have to admit that the throw back to when tournements were named for where they are held is kind of nice. Just hearing such a name doesn't immediately conjur up thoughts of the sponsor's products, or their corporate image. It's nice and simple. Pure. Not sustainable, but kind of nice.

[aca247]

One thing is for certain: a decade from now, we can look back with 2020 hindsight.

you are forgetting sergio garcia and alviro quiros

[lcfd42]

My 2 cents on the Old Guys winning a major thing. The older gen. players are giving up way too much distance to the younger, stronger, and more flexible up and comers. I know long play isn't everything, but it's hard to be a winner where your on the green in 2 on par 4s and the young guys are driving them and par 5s are long par 4s for them. The 8000yd. course will be a product of this. New equipment and training techniques are pressing these old dudes via warp speed to the Chamoins Tour. No new record will be made here. 95% sure....